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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    What I don't like about those maps is they do not state the amount of departures from normal, only chances of departure from normal.
  2. mitchnick
    All 0z ensembles have cozied up to the SER and AN temps at the end of their runs. Between climo and the continuing healthy easterly wind burst strengthening the Niña, it is what it is. The easterly wind burst should end around 2/10, so we'll have that and climo hopefully shifting back in our favor sometime after that.
  3. mitchnick
    18z Gefs back to a nasty SER and AN heights and temps at the end of the run.
  4. mitchnick
    No help from the AI at 18z.
  5. mitchnick
    18z Euro says enjoy the rain or drive a long way for snow.
  6. mitchnick
    Posting about weather.
  7. mitchnick
    Update. 12z ukie ensemble snow mean for same period shows an increase, also more than any other 12z ensemble. EDIT: I initially had the wrong map using the total for the run at 174hrs vs 24 hrs ending 174hrs. Fixed it.
  8. mitchnick
    Maybe an improvement on the AI from last run but not enough to make a difference.
  9. mitchnick
    Umm...JI
  10. mitchnick
    Looking at the operationals and their ensembles, it's really looking like New England's time to score unless the SER turns out tamer than currently progged.
  11. mitchnick
    Very much Ukie-like with the loss of precip to the north of the slp once it does get south of us. Can't recall seeing one like that.
  12. mitchnick
    SER is a beast.
  13. mitchnick
    The Ukie track explains why its ensembles at 6z that I posted earlier had the best snowfall maps for the period than any of the other ensembles.
  14. mitchnick
    Euro might be better. Ukie track, Gfs precip maybe? Lol
  15. mitchnick
    Lol no precip in the cold sector. Wtf?
  16. mitchnick
    Correct 144
  17. mitchnick
    Yeah, that High is lagging, but the slp goes from SE Texas to southern VA. Nice trajectory.
  18. mitchnick
    That really looks like a hit. Waiting on Pivotal.
  19. mitchnick
    Nah
  20. mitchnick
    I think the 12z Icon is headed in the right direction at 102hrs.
  21. mitchnick
    I wouldn't describe the future as the past. Everything is on the table for February at this ppint. Even the models can't figure it out.
  22. mitchnick
    I think that clipper that comes thru NE Wednesday into Thursday really needs to blow up once it exits the coast as it becomes part of the larger gyre (thank you Larry Cosgrove) near the 50/50 location.
  23. mitchnick
    It struck me as an 0z Gfs scenario.
  24. mitchnick
    This is different. Pivotal has the Ukie ensembles. My experience of watching them has been they are more conservative than the other ensembles until within 24-36 hours of the event. Yet, the 6z run just came in with the attached 24hr snowfall for next Sunday, by far the most of any of the ensembles. Looks like we have a few days of tracking if nothing else.
  25. mitchnick
    6z AI not buying the cold scenario.
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