mitchnick

AI isn't out until 2, so we'll wait and see what it shows. The operational ain't what it used to be.

Despite what some may bad about Bamwx, this is a decent explanation of February into March and his ideas on cold returning for the end of February into March match Psu's analogs. Don't judge it on the first page map you see. Lol I really recommend it because he includes some good reasoning too.

Why not? Do you really want an answer to that? Lol

6z AI now has 2/5 in play. One impulse comes thru on the 5th and a second round on the 6th/7th. DC north looks OK at 850 and surface, possibly a bit south of DC. This precip link starts on 2/5 so you can move it forward for precip amounts. Precip amounts on that top link are in 6 hour increments, but bottom is 12 hour for maybe a better idea of totals. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

That's the period the AI has been targeting fwiw.

All I ever had was a Samsung and with my disdain for technology and lack of curiosity of it, I have no desire to figure out where everything is on a different brand. The reason some stuff didn't carry over was because I intentionally do not sync my phone or put stuff in the cloud. It's all on the phone. I refuse to download any apps because they all want access to everything on your phone. Why? They don't need 95% of it. I do banking and retirement stuff on my phone and the fewer people that have access, the less likelihood I get hacked.

Strong Nina trades are killing us.

Canadian operational and ensembles are so warm because the Canadian gets the MJO wave the strongest into the Martime (warm for the east coast) phases. Gefs is not as bad as the Geps and EPS is best in that it kills the MJO wave. If the Canadian is right, we could see those temps. But I've been in the Enso thread of the main forum for almost 2 years duking it out with the warmanistas, and I can tell you that nobody relies on the Canadian MJO forecasts as they are usually somewhere between not good and bad. Here's a link to all the MJO RMM forecasts if interested. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

This is the Eps extended MJO forecast just out at 3pm. The mean is almost dead centered in the COD. Probably best case, but that's, as I said, a mean. If you look at the green dots that represent the end of the forecast, they are all over the place. So not much comfort in what exactly we should expect...except maybe the worse? Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501280000

Gefs MJO forecast ain't great and everything is moving toward it unfortunately. Weeklies yesterday were AN on the Euro site all of February and I'd be surprised if it changed today, which is out any minute.

Geps is uglier at the end of its run than Gefs.

12z AI pushes the 6th south some and not as heavy precip. Better for central MD & VA and N VA while surface temps look to cooperate. Moderate event at least in N VA and S and Central MD I think.

No, he's only 2. But you could get along with him fine I bet.

Oh yeah, none of my bookmarks or saved passwords transferred.

Just got back from getting the new phone. Another Samsung because I've always had one and refuse to try to learn an IPhone. That said, I abhore the learning curve for a new phone and getting rid of all the garbage on them. UGHHHHHHHH

If you only knew how effed up it was. Lol Going ti get new phone now. Back to AI. It’s a wet storm and lots of snow.

Yes and lots of precip from crummy maps.

850s start and stay nice thru most of storm. Lot of precip. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202501280600&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502060600

Ai 6z great. Dropped my phone. Barely made this post

Ai threatening for 2/6 bigtime. Dropped my phone and need a new one so can't post more. 0z was snow to mix but 6z looks like a lot of snow. More north.

Chilly

Maybe sooner at some locations according to the 18z Icon.

Idk what the EPS will show, but I can't say I have a problem with what was occurring around the Pole and the Pacific at the end of the Euro operational.

For accumulating snow, it's on life support imho.