mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Lt rn in Hanover :-/
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Thru 2/15, if I can get at least one 6-10" event imby plus a few more lighter events, even if just an inch or 2 before or after a changeover, I'll be happy. But ensembles do suggest we'll do better than that. I think there will be more beyond 2/15 for sure unless modeling does a total aboutface.
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AI has the 12th with a good hit but not a lot more other than light snows at the start before changeover.
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Yep. This is incredible for our area when there isn't a HECS pending.
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It won't last forever, so you've got that going for you. And we all know we can do warm just fine around here, though your area takes a little longer to defrost than down here.
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A lot of people went warm/low snowfall this winter and some can't get themselves to admit in public they were wrong. Most that did, have been hanging on to the hope February will torch to bring up the 3 month average winter anomaly.
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I wish I hadn't asked.
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No maps for the 2-5" event?
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Bliz get at it. Sounds like Euro has 2 events thru day 10.
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Post more often! Lol
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Euro finally has ice for Thursday morning.
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Euro will have none of it. I think it'll cave as too many other models are dropping some snow now.
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Fixed
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Ukie for Wednesday
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Ukie likes far N MD folks and PA hicks for Wednesday.
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Unless I'm seeing things, but it looks like the Gfs and Canadian are moving, or trying to move, the SER from the traditional and former location off the SE coast to a flat ridge over the SE U.S. We'll see if that trend continues and how it may change forecasts, if at all.
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I wonder what he means by cabbage hole...
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https://x.com/webberweather/status/1886063442882425254?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1886063442882425254|twgr^0bb5e4f76ac6697896ee49a8fa94161e93bae66a|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fwebberweather%2Fstatus%2F1886063442882425254%3Fs%3D4626t%3DJYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA
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Warms fast on Thursday morning fortunately.
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Icon Thursday morning. Ughh ice
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Icon still likes Wednesday
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I don't take it as a bad sign at this range at all for the reasons you stated and in light of operationals and ensembles.
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AI just cr@pped the bed and pushed both 2/12 and 2/14 off the coast thanks to the cold. Wouldn't worry about that until ensembles start doing it since that's really all it is at this range. But cold probably won't be our problem after next week.
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In addition to maintaining the SSW on the 6z run, now at 300hrs, Gfs has a 2nd hit to what's left of the vortex at the end of its run. Follow-up hits like this are classic to consequential SSW events. Difficult not to get excited for the next 6, maybe even 8, weeks.
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If I was ever going to report a post, this would be the one.
