mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Part of me actually fears the cold pushing storms off the coast or to the south. I just haven't decided whether it's a big or small part that's fearing it. Lol
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Just when you think it's safe to come out, the Gfs is sniffing out a SSW around 2/14. It's been on it for days too along with the Geps.
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Weeklies got noticeably cooler today erasing AN for Normal temps in 3 or 4 weeks (depending on where you live) out of the 6 week forecast. How many times have we had to say "the weeklies have gotten cooler/colder this winter?" I've lost count. Lol
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I forgot to add, I'd never give up a mountain spot for the lowlands. Never!
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I asked about a new home because Myers has a new subdivision at the intersection of Elm Street (Rt. 116) and Centennial, where the Food Lion sits. Big lots and crazy high prices. Can't people pay all that money for what you get for this area.
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You buying a new house in McSherrystown? Lol
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One other thing about the weeklies, every week but week 5 is Above Normal for precip, with week 5 normal.
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Euro site. I'll post yesterday's on top and today's on the bottom for weeks 2, 3, 4 and 6. Week 5 was similar.
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Wow. Weeklies just cooled BIG time.
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AI has threats again but the cold actually has 2 of the threats pushed a little east of ideal. Probably good at this range.
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Eps snow mean pretty good at 268hrs with 3" at BWI and 2.5" at DCA. Better than the operational.
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I'm glad to see you posting Heisy. When I heard them say that jet crashed in NE Philly, I was worried about you.
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Gfs seems to have the boundary 75-100 miles further south from the Gem.
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Ggem is snow to mix for 2/10-2/11. Better north.
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2/10-2/20 could be one of the snowiest periods in 15 years IF we're on the right side of the boundary.
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Ughh cold push to strong. Changes every run.
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Incoming on gfs at 240hrs
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I'll take the 12z Gfs for 2/5
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Add the Icon to the Gfs.
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If you're wondering why so wet in February, this link is the 200mb jet starting at 0 hours on the Eps. Scroll through to the end of the run. It's a firehouse across the country. Gefs is the same. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=namer&pkg=uv250&runtime=2025020100&fh=0
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You mean over on the rain totals and under on the snow totals.
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6z AI continues with multiple threats of snow or snow to mix. It keeps shifting around but suffice to say the 10th-17th has the most snow threats, consistentwith the ensemblesand operationals. I'll let you figure out details from TT once it's out in around an hour.
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You want to use the (bc) version, or bias corrected of both. That said, the reason the Gefs are warmer than the Eps is, in most likelihood, their MJO forecasts. And you're right, let's hope the Eps is closer. Bias corrected are included at this link. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html
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Good stuff starts on the 11th on the AI.
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It always takes multiple things to go wrong and it looks like the copter was primary cause and the tower's question as to whether he saw the jet coming in without identifying the location of the jet (i.e. at your 11 o'clock) is a secondary. But that assumes no mechanical failures. However I agree, just seems so obvious in retrospect it shouldn't have happened.
