mitchnick

Since it's probably been since 1/16 when we saw an Eps snowfall mean this good, I had to post it since nobody else did

Tuesday has less qpf and a little south. Next Saturday looks real nice.

This is thru only 300 hrs. Some of those waves must be scoring.

Comes out at 2pm.

6z AI very similar to 0z but maybe a touch more precip to the north of 0z. It then has a light event Wednesday night into Thursday. Then Tuesday 2/17 has a moderate event. Thursday 2/20-21 has a stronger storm with initial temp issues. That can and will change. P.s. I have not mentioned any rain events.

My road looks fine even with little traffic.

Lot of sleet and zr. Now for a nice morning drive down to Towson.

6z Euro has the boundary further south at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs fwiw.

It was over at that point on the 0z.

Just keeps getting better and better.

It did, but it was so far out I figured it wasn't worth mentioning. Model exhaustion.

Oz Ukie

0Z AI shifted south some.

This IS the long range thread. Lol

Total

NE will get an average or above winter after all.

Here are the 850's and 500mb at the start of the event. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202502051800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502190600 Here's the surface. It looks like the storm starts warm and then temps crash but there decent precip we'll after the cold. Not your typical precip chasing cold. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502051800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502190600

18z AI looks close to identical for Tuesday. Snow starts Tuesday morning around 12z and last flakes don't stop until around 12z Wednesday. Next Friday starts as snow and then turns to rain. Next Wednesday, 2/19, is much better as I said at 12z it had a chance . Pretty close to Tuesday's event.

I've always wondered who the hell came up with the color scheme on WxBell snowfall maps. Once you hit 10", it gets real hard to differentiate through the shades.

Great forecast for all of NE.

I wish I had a better idea what the heck is going to happen next week snow-wise.

Looking at the 18z Gfs and all the threats it had and then looking at the 18z Euro, I'd bet that if that went out further we would be seeing more threats like the Gfs. Where the boundary would set up nobody knows. Don't believe me, look at this 700mb RH map at 144hrs on the Euro and Gfs.

Why do you think you need a mission to drive weenies off the cliff? Lol

It's why we really need to score early to mid next week because that's when we have the best High pressure to our north and cold air feeding south. Looks like the SER ruins it for us after those initial waves until maybe the longer term guidance kicks in with a tamer SER. But there's always a risk that fails too like modeling from several days ago. Oh the life of a weenie.

We need that SER to calm down or it's mix precip to rain for us and snows in central PA north time after time.