mitchnick

It was intended as a joke. 3 posts that could have easily been 1.

Why did you say that?

I think you're wrong.

You're crazy

Saw that, but little accumulation in southern forum. Something in central northeast.

12z Nam cuts back hopes for front end snows over most areas in central and southern areas fwiw.

I just wonder how this changes once we are in phase 8 long enough for the models to adjust. That said, some models now want to delay the move into phase 8 including the bias corrected Euro and Canadian, but they are the minority. If there is a delay, idk what that does because it would be stuck in phase 7 with a weak wave for a week. Operational Euro and other models get us into phase 8 today or tomorrow. Probably going to need to wait until tomorrow to see if modeling has found another way to screw our expectations. Lol

Yeah. I was thinking this morning that yesterday's event didn't come into clearer focus until Thursday. I remember because I was talking to someone about what models Wednesday night were showing before 12z came out and how the 6z Euro first showed the push south. Of course a lot changed on the models as the days passed, but the point is it wasn't until 120hrs out until the general idea showed itself. Every storm is different, but using the 120hrs period as the benchmark, it'll be this weekend before we should expect to have a better handle on the outcome.

6z was a little further east unfortunately, with around .10" I would guess. This is going to be a painful next 7 days I suspect.

6z a little further east knocking down qpf. Pure guess would be by .10". Not shocking.

It's always something that seemingly comes out of nowhere as the event nears that gets us, which is why the longer range progs are always the snowiest.

0Z AI QPF which would be all snow. It's a jog west from prior runs. It's a big storm and becomes a blizzard once in ENE.

Fixed

2" in Hanover with light snow continuing.

Here's the qpf for next week that's snow in the metro areas on north and east that falls as snow.

2" here with a gorgeous winter morning of light snow and deep gray skies.

Gfs was pretty good with yesterday insisting on that heavy band down south. That reason and it's the snowiest model are the only reasons I need to go with it.

0Z AI is now a hit but favors east of I95 with heaviest. Not the nightmare of Boxing Day as it's probably a moderate hit for many in the forum west of the Bay. It's big for coastal NJ north and east with I95 doing better once into NJ. ENE is the big winner with a Blizzard likely. Details in a while on 3rd party sites like TT. H-squared (Heisey & Hoffman) will undoubtedly say it's not far from something much bigger forumwide, because it's not! Lol

Heisey, looking at the 700 and 850mb RH maps, that vort off Maine is a buzz saw and looks to me it's a crusher.

Icon hopefully a hit with this look, but the vort off of Maine will likely shove it south unless it gets out of the way. I was in the middle of my post damn you! Lol

Nam 84 hrs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025021200&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

This is 3 runs in a row it's looked nearly identical to the 18z run...maybe 4. Too early to get fired up, but if it does change for the better, it will just pick a random run and then stick with it. Give it until at least Friday.

The stuff that was/is over Ohio has made it east and filled in. Back to a steady light accumulating snow. See it on this radar. I would think/hope some of it moves further north too. https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/nemetro/

To be fair, the AI had a decent storm in 1 run and it does move around a lot post 5 or 6 days. My biggest concern is the -5 AO. We still could get crushed, who knows. But I've wasted a lot of time on phantom ensemble storms this year with a low rate of return. And what makes it really sting is that we're BN on temps. More salt in the wounds. I'm not going anywhere yet, of course, but I'll be damned if I'm having any fun with this "hobby."