mitchnick

Chuck, I posted that days 10-15 on the Gefs had cold 850's but got warm on day 16. 378hrs that CAPE posted is day 16 and that is warm. But day 16 forecasts, including ensembles, will undoubtedly change one way or the other.

I definitely don't buy the model error idea, but I did consider it before posting. I just can't see how the ensembles are that flawed. An operational at range? Sure, but not an ensemble mean. I think it coukd be the cold is undercutting the higher heights in the east.

I don't dispute the indexes, but when you look at mean 850 temps, they are cold thru days 10-15. It's not until day 16 when they are warm. The link below starts day 10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens_opendata&p=850tw-mean&rh=2025013012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

18zAI still likes 5th and 6th with a light to moderate threats. There's a front end snow threat for late 8th thru 9th, which is new. 12-14th is now warm, but that could change completely at 0z so I'd stick with the ensembles because at that range, the AI is just another ensemble member.

More than that 6 hour panel has precip. This is 24hr total while cold enough for snow.

Today’s Eps extended have the mean MJO wave dying in Phase 8 inside the COD after a brief stint in the warmer Maritime phases. That would probably be a good result if right, but again it's a mean of a lot of different member results. I've attached the RMM plot for the MJO along with the Euro time-longitude plat showing the easterly trades feeding the Niña base state will end around 2/11 IF it's correct. That too would work, I think, with enough time left in the season for 1 or 2 last gasps...hopefully.

If you took the effort to look, you'd see it comes over a short window and not a little at a time. But you have you agenda, so...

12z EuroAI is weaker with the snow on the 5th, though still there. Pure guess of 1-2" max. 2/6 is warmer than last run and looks like snow to start in the northern forum and snow/mix in the south, then all to rain for everyone. Don't see temps getting as warm as the operational around the 6th/7th, with warmest around the 9th/10th before another cold shot leads into below. BIG threat on the 12th-13th which is showing up on both operationals and definitely the ensembles. Eps really likes that period. The run ends seasonably cold and a another cold shot looking to head south out of Canada.

Pretty decent snowfall mean on the Eps. Better than yesterday I believe.

Enjoy it while it lasts if you enjoy it because...

All is dependent the boundary location. Euro AI has probably been the best if you want cold and snow. Canadian if you want warmth.

6z Euro AI is decent for 5th-7th and end of run with a snow threat and cold.

I didn't post anything because the Euro site made it look much more tenuous at that time. I know it's hard to see, but the 0-line is north of Baltimore on this map and is moving north by 180hrs.

Start here https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501291800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

Yes...2 waves. One early on the 5th and another late 6th into 7th.

AI 18z run supports snow on the north side (N&W) of Baltimore this time, but it keeps switching back and forth between N&W and south into Central VA. It does show a very wet storm around the 12 and 13th, but is a little too warm south of the PA line, if even there. Plenty of time to go either way.

18z Gefs likes the period from day 10-14. Top map is total snowfall thru 240hrs and bottom map is 336hrs.

If I said 2/11, JI would have expected a second storm on 2/12.

18z Gfs has the 2/12 storm but a day or so earlier.

Ahh...No! Aldie and I have been posting on these boards for 20+ years and bust each other's chops now and then.

Thanks for the jinx.

Eps with the best snowfall mean of the 12z runs.

Today's Eps weekly MJO mean forecast. Would be nice if the MJO did just this and let our luck rest on something else. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501290000