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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Umm...JI
  2. mitchnick
    Looking at the operationals and their ensembles, it's really looking like New England's time to score unless the SER turns out tamer than currently progged.
  3. mitchnick
    Very much Ukie-like with the loss of precip to the north of the slp once it does get south of us. Can't recall seeing one like that.
  4. mitchnick
    SER is a beast.
  5. mitchnick
    The Ukie track explains why its ensembles at 6z that I posted earlier had the best snowfall maps for the period than any of the other ensembles.
  6. mitchnick
    Euro might be better. Ukie track, Gfs precip maybe? Lol
  7. mitchnick
    Lol no precip in the cold sector. Wtf?
  8. mitchnick
    Correct 144
  9. mitchnick
    Yeah, that High is lagging, but the slp goes from SE Texas to southern VA. Nice trajectory.
  10. mitchnick
    That really looks like a hit. Waiting on Pivotal.
  11. mitchnick
    Nah
  12. mitchnick
    I think the 12z Icon is headed in the right direction at 102hrs.
  13. mitchnick
    I wouldn't describe the future as the past. Everything is on the table for February at this ppint. Even the models can't figure it out.
  14. mitchnick
    I think that clipper that comes thru NE Wednesday into Thursday really needs to blow up once it exits the coast as it becomes part of the larger gyre (thank you Larry Cosgrove) near the 50/50 location.
  15. mitchnick
    It struck me as an 0z Gfs scenario.
  16. mitchnick
    This is different. Pivotal has the Ukie ensembles. My experience of watching them has been they are more conservative than the other ensembles until within 24-36 hours of the event. Yet, the 6z run just came in with the attached 24hr snowfall for next Sunday, by far the most of any of the ensembles. Looks like we have a few days of tracking if nothing else.
  17. mitchnick
    6z AI not buying the cold scenario.
  18. mitchnick
    6z 144hrs 850's Euro top and Eps bottom. Plenty of cold to the north and operational not an outlier considering the Eps.
  19. mitchnick
    That is getting soooo close to good. Plenty of time too for a meaningful trend...assuming it wants to keep trending.
  20. mitchnick
    That High Pressure north of Wisconsin is pressing east too and probably strengthening with that trough to the north seen in the far right, upper corner.
  21. mitchnick
    Surprisingly, surface temps past day 10 aren't as warm as that map would suggest fwiw.
  22. mitchnick
    Or a cold December.
  23. mitchnick
    He posted in the La Nina thread not too many days ago.
  24. mitchnick
    The fact is the atmosphere is in a Niña background state despite the weak Niña sea surface temps. Under sea temp anomalies are at -5C. Add to that currently a strong easterly wind burst (typical Nina) in a typically crummy Niña month of February, and I am not surprised to see the SER holding on. Modeling just jumped the gun wiping it out. We'll just have to wait to see if and when a better pattern returns. It should, but nothing is guaranteed.
  25. mitchnick
    Tough hobby, ain't it.
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