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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
    Really hard to get excited about anything more than 5 days out.
  2. mitchnick
    Ninja'd
  3. mitchnick
    Hrdps posted in MA is further south and nice looking.
  4. mitchnick
    Just gotta hope that the Nam's 84hr depiction is better than it's 36 hr forecast...Naaahh lol
  5. mitchnick
    Lighter on the precip, but that's what the Gem did at 6z as I mentioned previously.
  6. mitchnick
    That's starting off pretty far west than other modeling and further north with the rn/sn line. Just sayin'. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011812&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=500hv&rh=2025011812&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
  7. mitchnick
    Definitely the AI is right up there, but because we don't get snowfall forecasts from it, it's harder to compare it to the Canadians.
  8. mitchnick
    In the end, imho I think the Canadians are going to end up being more right than wrong and far superior to other guidance when considering how long they've had held their forecasts.
  9. mitchnick
    I'm hoping the Rgem/Gem come in looking like the FV-3.
  10. mitchnick
    FV-3. It's like the Rgem for the Gem, but for the Gfs.
  11. mitchnick
    High Risk said before last Monday's storm that the Hrrr doesn't include new soundings for each run.
  12. mitchnick
    Later start and faster movement.
  13. mitchnick
    Precip looks paultry to me, but we'll see how it ends.
  14. mitchnick
    AI 6z steady as she goes.
  15. mitchnick
    That 4-day period, if true, would beat any consecutive 4-day period in 93/94.
  16. mitchnick
    Imho, I doubt any of us weather weenies who know where to go for weather products will notice.
  17. mitchnick
    Those are the 0z runs. 6z Rgem came north a bit and knocked me down to 4" and 6z GEM cut back on precip for all making it a 4-8" storm vs 8-12". So the inevitable north/last minute waiver has reached them too.
  18. mitchnick
    Ukie ensembles have shifted north a bit from last run putting MDT in the center instead of mby. Canadians were fine by me for days even though being on the southern side. But with them taking the near inevitable north jog it'll be a problem if it continues. Not that they will definitely be right, but all modeling is starting a north shift a bit.
  19. mitchnick
    You've always had his best interests at heart.
  20. mitchnick
    Fyi, 0z AI showed an overrunning type snow event next Monday and then a couple more shots after that, but the later ones ar best north. Can't be stated enough that the AI is all over the place like other modeling in the long run.
  21. mitchnick
    6z Eps shifted south from 0z. Good test to see if the operational and Eps head toward the AI. 6z was the first step toward the AI.
  22. mitchnick
    Honestly, I have yet to watch 1 local forecast since we bought the place in Fall 2019. Too bad for the Mets, but the way of the media world is podcasts, YouTube, TicToc, etc.
  23. mitchnick
    Gfs and Euro closer for Tuesday. But not there yet. AI is a miss but has several hits the following week, better north. Of course, at that range, AI is hit or miss
  24. mitchnick
    UGHHHHHHHH........
  25. mitchnick
    Canadians have reduced snowfall either due to a further north position (Rgem) or less qpf as the 6z GEM is more like 4-8" vs the 8-12" it had yesterday.
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