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mitchnick

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Everything posted by mitchnick

  1. mitchnick
  2. mitchnick
    Remember, Canadians were the warm models last time and were more right than wrong.
  3. mitchnick
    Gem total zr
  4. mitchnick
    Starts with this panel. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025012412&fh=222&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps
  5. mitchnick
    Gem is lt snow to ice for many. Obviously, exact location depends on a lot of things.
  6. mitchnick
    Gem now starts as snow
  7. mitchnick
    Gem not quite as bad looking at 186hrs.
  8. mitchnick
    Gfs is ugly.
  9. mitchnick
    Keep delaying the Gfs or Euro and there could be some HP to the north show up. Lol
  10. mitchnick
    Sun's out with random flakes falling from a cloud that's past by. It's like heaven for weenies. Lol
  11. mitchnick
    Not abnormal for boundary in an overrunning event to move north, but that's a detail to worry about if it's still there in 10 days. Lol Our fate rests on the strength of the SER, for better or for worse. Hopefully it works in our favor at least some of the time.
  12. mitchnick
    6z AI still has the low passing pretty far to our west which might open the door for zr/ip. However, verbatim surface temps are above freezing until about Harrisburg, PA. At the end of the run it's showing an overrunning snow potential similar to 0z operational Euro. I think we'll have to endure a couple warmer storms before the SER is beaten down enough for us to be on the right side of the boundary, assuming it ever gets to our south.
  13. mitchnick
    Yep. I'll take a pass on that one. Gotta take the Canadian seriously however. What has become clear is that with this "correcting" with every model cycle, though snow may not be favored now, everything remains on the table.
  14. mitchnick
    I remember that embossed postage envelope. It switch to 6 cents a few years later.
  15. mitchnick
    All I can say is who knows with any certainty what's going to happen next week. 6z Euro operational and Eps at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs. It doesn’t mean it's going to snow, but it does mean I ain't giving up yet. P.s. Don’t get seasick.
  16. mitchnick
    Snowing in Hanover. Coating already.
  17. mitchnick
    Lt sn in Hanover
  18. mitchnick
    Verbatim, it hiys NE pretty good. Could see that comkng. Plenty of time. I'm out for the night.
  19. mitchnick
    The cold is far more expansive and intense. More single digits.
  20. mitchnick
    Speaking of which, end of the 18z Euro run shows quite a noticeable change between 12z and 18z.
  21. mitchnick
    I know we'll never see that blocking over the Poke as depicted at the end of the 18z run, but man is that perty.
  22. mitchnick
    A bit of an improvement on the weeklies today from the last few runs, especially the first 2 while weeks in February. Note, however, starting the week of the 17th when the warmer anomalies hit, that we are on the north side of the dotted line most weeks. The dotted lines show the significance level and being on the north side shows less significance than below it. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501230000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502030000
  23. mitchnick
    Idk but it's median not mean
  24. mitchnick
    Though not great, EPS snow mean increased this run vs 0z and yesterday's 12z fwiw. P.s. Didn’t bother to look at threats,just total.
  25. mitchnick
    Surface temps BN at the end of the Eps run despite the SER.
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