mitchnick

0z AI another great run. Check it out on TT. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025020100&fh=6

It IS the best long range run of the season. You're going to be one busy sob in February! Lol People that don't like maps aren't going to be happy. Anyway, I came in to post the PA Eps map and I should have known you'd ninja me. I posted it anyway because it's so pretty.

500mb map looks decent for all 3 AI events. Here's a link to the 500mb anomalies starting from just befor storm 1. Move forward to see the rest of the 5H anomalies. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025013118&fh=258

Total storm qpf from Pivotal.

Pivotal has the precip shield further for the 2nd one a little further offshore than as it appeared to me on the Euro site. But storm 3 is definitely better on Pivotal than it looked on the Euro site.

Actually, the last storm might be better than the other two if that's possible. It starts real cold. Here's the 850 temp/500mb

AI 18z has a little frozen on the 5/6 next week. No big deal. Now. Take your children out of the room. Once you take out, you can continue to read this. Click on this link and move forward in time. From DC northward, the storm is mostly snow. This is 2/11 BUT...continue to move forward in time to Thursday 2/13. That storm is all snow from even southern VA. It's more an I95 storm, but it's an absolute MONSTER! Have a nice rest of your evening. Disregard the 3rd one at the end of the run even though that would at least start as snow too. Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501311800&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502111200

At least 3 days, maybe 4 or 5.

That's what the AI has been showing.

The SER is a beast. It seems operationals and ensembles want to push the boundary south to around VA/NC border after the 10th and then throw precip north. If the SER fights back hard, it'll be a brief snow to mix to rain for most up the coast, more snow the further north, of course. But if it doesn't fight so hard, we'll get a decent snow as advertised by the Euro and Gfs intermittently over the past 2 days. Eps is still looking good after day 10 suggesting some decent members, but it's too far out to get too excited. The AI seems to do best inside 5 days. Wednesday is now 5 days away so we should start to see it hone in and then stay pretty steady come Sunday, one way or the other. Until then, it's another ensemble member. But I could easily be wrong.

Geps fwiw

Yeah, 6z warmed for the 6th. Didn't bother to post it because it pi$$ed me off. Lol In fact, the whole run sorta sucked.

Why end it in February? March can be pretty good in Niñas.

We should be in phase 7 sometime in February, but it's interesting that phase 7 in March per this site looks a lot like what ensembles are advertising in mid February.

They've been doing that since their days in the ACC back in the 70's and 80's. Dean always seemed to outsmart Lefty.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1885138563982917803

I haven't been following the SSW threat, but I did see that the Euro is indicating a strong heat flux by day 10. Honestly, I'm sure if it means much toward a SSW, but thought it interesting after reading your post. Here's the link to the Euro strat stuff. They used to provide free all info at the link but not anymore unfortunately. https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

Chuck, I posted that days 10-15 on the Gefs had cold 850's but got warm on day 16. 378hrs that CAPE posted is day 16 and that is warm. But day 16 forecasts, including ensembles, will undoubtedly change one way or the other.

I definitely don't buy the model error idea, but I did consider it before posting. I just can't see how the ensembles are that flawed. An operational at range? Sure, but not an ensemble mean. I think it coukd be the cold is undercutting the higher heights in the east.

I don't dispute the indexes, but when you look at mean 850 temps, they are cold thru days 10-15. It's not until day 16 when they are warm. The link below starts day 10. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens_opendata&p=850tw-mean&rh=2025013012&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

18zAI still likes 5th and 6th with a light to moderate threats. There's a front end snow threat for late 8th thru 9th, which is new. 12-14th is now warm, but that could change completely at 0z so I'd stick with the ensembles because at that range, the AI is just another ensemble member.

More than that 6 hour panel has precip. This is 24hr total while cold enough for snow.

Today’s Eps extended have the mean MJO wave dying in Phase 8 inside the COD after a brief stint in the warmer Maritime phases. That would probably be a good result if right, but again it's a mean of a lot of different member results. I've attached the RMM plot for the MJO along with the Euro time-longitude plat showing the easterly trades feeding the Niña base state will end around 2/11 IF it's correct. That too would work, I think, with enough time left in the season for 1 or 2 last gasps...hopefully.

If you took the effort to look, you'd see it comes over a short window and not a little at a time. But you have you agenda, so...

12z EuroAI is weaker with the snow on the 5th, though still there. Pure guess of 1-2" max. 2/6 is warmer than last run and looks like snow to start in the northern forum and snow/mix in the south, then all to rain for everyone. Don't see temps getting as warm as the operational around the 6th/7th, with warmest around the 9th/10th before another cold shot leads into below. BIG threat on the 12th-13th which is showing up on both operationals and definitely the ensembles. Eps really likes that period. The run ends seasonably cold and a another cold shot looking to head south out of Canada.