mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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SER destroyed in 1 run.
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Snow derecho
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5h map looks like an arrow.
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Since when are you the only one entitled to complain about model runs? Lol
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500mb low centered over Hudson Bay. Same place it was sitting in 2/79, and we know what happened on the 17th that month.
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Dude, that's what I said last night. So long as we're on the correct side of the boundary.
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Gfs even features @ravensrule's favorite 500mb pattern!
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Lol round 2 incoming on Gfs at 277hrs
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https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025020200&fh=270&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
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Spanking in VA/MD and meh comparatively up here at 264hrs Gfs.
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They're over a foot on the Gfs by 218hrs. And the ensembles have been crushing them for days.
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Gfs loading up again at 237hrs. Just want a direct hit.
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New England is the place to be with this pattern. They're going to get absolutely crushed.
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Canadian, though improved, is absolutely maddening looking at the snowfall map. Arghhh!
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AI was not too far off I don't believe.
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Icon makes next weekend pretty miserable too.
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AI has snow in central VA and DC/BWI on the 10th that gets lighter once in PA. Probably a light to moderate event. Cold air keeps it south.
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Lots of fun things happen on models past 300hrs.
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It starts as snow until the low cuts off and gets all wound up drawing warm air off the SER. Southern areas get the precip before the warm air gets sucked in and it becomes "extra tropical". Lol not really
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2nd one. All that warm air from the SER comes surging onshore.
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First one is snow for most. 2nd system is a wound up closed low that is so strong it turns everyone to rain. But it's 2 weeks away and will be different in 6 hours.
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That's a little further west than 12z. If anyone recalls, or you can find my post a few pages back, I said the threats were there at 12z but shoved a bit too far east due to cold. These look a tick or 2 better for sure.
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Napping
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Part of me actually fears the cold pushing storms off the coast or to the south. I just haven't decided whether it's a big or small part that's fearing it. Lol
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Just when you think it's safe to come out, the Gfs is sniffing out a SSW around 2/14. It's been on it for days too along with the Geps.
