mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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I'm seeing a slight improvement in the 6z Gem over 0z for Tuesday with a subtle deepening of the vortex over western Hudson Bay which lifts heights in the east. Hopefully it's correct and the adjustment continues. We'll see.
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The rest of the AI run is a master class of how to screw the MA with hits to the north, including the 15th/16th & 20th, only to end with a massive snow in the Carolinas.
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Just to add, I think DC and BWI look as good as 0z. Maybe more qpf but you'll need to wait for better graphics.
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6z AI. This is a tough one to figure because of the graphics. But it may have a tick south but it is more of an extended period of snow that "may" make up for it. The 2nd part looks a little warmer. Looks like N MD holds on, but if I had to guess, it's trending to a bigger hit from Central PA to NE, who looks to justify those big ensemble numbers.
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If you take the Conus view, it looks to have 2 waves like the Euro. Take a look out at Arkansas and Kansas.
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You need 2 runs in a row for a trend. 12z will determine trend or no trend, or a different evolution than previously advertised.
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The continuous precip idea is similar to what the AI showed the last 2 runs. I take that as a positive.
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It really needs to keep coming north today. Today's the day.
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How inspiring. G'nite.
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Kuchie looks the same
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Maybe not as regularly crappy as operationals, ensembles can be crappy too with their lower resolution. But if this threat fails, this has got to be the worst ensemble fail in a long time. The 24 hr ensemble means, total means, as well as medians. Simply apocalyptic should this fail imho. And the big numbers were across every ensemble.
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Ukie
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Random thought as I'm waiting for 0z runs, it looks like one our problems contributing to the southerly solutions is that low pressure that slides off the SC coast around 6z Monday. That really lowers heights along the coast and there's not quite enough time for heights to rebound.
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This part 1 and 2 qpf. It "may" be or may not be a little high or low, but not more than .05" either way.
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Yes
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Here's part 2 qpf
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I broke the rules, because I'm such a rebel, and posted about 2/16 and 2/20 as big storm threats in next week's thread. Easier to check them out on Pivotal or TT around 9:30.
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Gets close
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Another monster, probably the best for all parts of the forum, on 2/20. CORRECTION: It's not quite as big as I thought but it's decent. I thought I had the qpf maps on 6 hour maps but it was on 12 hour. Sorry....and shut up JI!
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I thought the same. There's only so much energy to be split between the 2 in one way or the other.
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In case anybody cares, though I know this thread is for next week, looks like there's a PD2.5. As depicted, coastal areas to best but heavy precip went west of Rt. 15.
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Part 2 of the storm is weaker, colder and all snow for most DC north.
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AI Tuesday storm kicked back north by maybe 30-40+ miles. It's a start maybe.
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Hey, if it works out, maybe your wife will agree to move south!
