mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Another miss on the AI. Here's how it does it. Basically the tpv becomes a wrecking ball and just drops in too fast and is big. Scroll forward from this spot. It's the only 500mb map worth anything from the AI. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202502151800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502191800
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World peace? You saw too many reruns of Groundhog Day, Groundhog Day, Gro...
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I think we need the bleeding to stop by getting 2 or 3 runs to hold steady, then hope the north trend begins to put the forum back where we were yesterday and Thursday with the primo runs.
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As the Euro comes out, all I'll be looking at is the tpv. Does it stay intact well and does it lag behind vs 12z are going to predict the outcome vs 12z imho.
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The models are simply unable to produce an accurate forecast 5 days or more in advance, and that's being kind.
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That would also explain why the Ukie ensembles didn't do better because despite the greater amplification, it didn't produce because the tpv was further west.
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There is some precip north, but not much vs VA was my point.
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Actually, it's south with the precip. VA does best. Different from last 2 runs.
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Yeah, you can see how paltry the precip is this run because the N stream isn't sucking it north.
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That's what was going to say. We're relying in the southern stream and that's getting pushed east. Idk, just a thought.
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24hr precip
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Slp member 6z vs 12z
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We get just about nothing and the metros get shaved too. Speaking generally for the forum.
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Helped some with snowfall, but still centered SE unfortunately.
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120hrs. When do I stop? Lol
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Bigger difference at 114. More amped and further west. None of that wimpy azz crap like the Euro.
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At 108hrs, definitely more amped than 6z.
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Step back on the AI. Not a total whiff, but less than 6z.
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They're coming in, but slowly. I'll post when the get there.
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Lt rn now after a little over an in h bringing me to 14.5" on the season. I just need Wednesday to drop 15" to reach climo! Yeah right.
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The good news is that we still have 4 more days of waxing and waning. The bad news is the ensembles and some operationals say we clearly cannot, for whatever reason, shake the seasonal pattern even with the wave changes later in the season. Crazy.
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Eps SE. Tired of seeing that picture all winter.
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Back to snow again. Haven't seen flips back and forth like this since the 1/30/00 storm where my MD house was right on the line.
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Ensembles have been leaning east all along. Don't be surprised if they lean further east in light of the operational. I'll be happy if they hold, but preferably improvile of course.
