mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Gfs ain't bad.
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I expect the AI and Ukie to come in line today. Hard to believe they will score a coup. We'll see.
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I posted last night operationals are expected to be crappy regularly, but not the ensembles. It's an epic fail of all the ensembles like I've never seen.
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I'll repeat what I posted yesterday. That storm moving off the SE coast Monday morning is pushing heights lower along the coast killing both northward progress and preventing a stronger overrunning flow. At least that's what I've been seeing on the fail models.
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Rgem a NO too.
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That second blob to our wsw is headed in our direction and temps remain favorable. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp&rh=2025020812&fh=loop&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
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At 63hrs, 12z Nam is showing a raising of heights from the 6z run fwiw. Can't hurt.
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6z AI qpf
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I'm seeing a slight improvement in the 6z Gem over 0z for Tuesday with a subtle deepening of the vortex over western Hudson Bay which lifts heights in the east. Hopefully it's correct and the adjustment continues. We'll see.
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The rest of the AI run is a master class of how to screw the MA with hits to the north, including the 15th/16th & 20th, only to end with a massive snow in the Carolinas.
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Just to add, I think DC and BWI look as good as 0z. Maybe more qpf but you'll need to wait for better graphics.
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6z AI. This is a tough one to figure because of the graphics. But it may have a tick south but it is more of an extended period of snow that "may" make up for it. The 2nd part looks a little warmer. Looks like N MD holds on, but if I had to guess, it's trending to a bigger hit from Central PA to NE, who looks to justify those big ensemble numbers.
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If you take the Conus view, it looks to have 2 waves like the Euro. Take a look out at Arkansas and Kansas.
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You need 2 runs in a row for a trend. 12z will determine trend or no trend, or a different evolution than previously advertised.
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The continuous precip idea is similar to what the AI showed the last 2 runs. I take that as a positive.
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It really needs to keep coming north today. Today's the day.
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How inspiring. G'nite.
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Kuchie looks the same
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Maybe not as regularly crappy as operationals, ensembles can be crappy too with their lower resolution. But if this threat fails, this has got to be the worst ensemble fail in a long time. The 24 hr ensemble means, total means, as well as medians. Simply apocalyptic should this fail imho. And the big numbers were across every ensemble.
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Ukie
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Random thought as I'm waiting for 0z runs, it looks like one our problems contributing to the southerly solutions is that low pressure that slides off the SC coast around 6z Monday. That really lowers heights along the coast and there's not quite enough time for heights to rebound.
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This part 1 and 2 qpf. It "may" be or may not be a little high or low, but not more than .05" either way.
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Yes
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Here's part 2 qpf
