mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Heisey, I haven't looked at them, but the AI has ensembles. Lousy graphics, but this is the link to them fwiw. https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"%2C"Experimental%3A AIFS Ensemble forecast"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A[]}
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Nope. 1 inch still a touch to my north. Plus it's 10:1, and temps suggest snow TV at best.
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Heisey, et al., Pivotal has updated AI and now has snowfall. Here's the 6z run.
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Cansips last year was predicting a strong Niña at this point and other modeling was weak to moderate. So everything was too cold since a 5 trimonthly Niña looks doubtful. So predictions at this point are pretty much a cr@p shoot imho. That said, for the sole purpose of making an early "guess", I'll go with a warm La Nada or weak Niño.
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0z AI looked like last week's event with precip centered mainly south, but probably rain. 6z just out (this is an earlier time than before and the website changed too, so it's probably the upgraded version) is a big rainstorm.
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Come to think of it, today was the upgrade. Maybe that's why there's nothing new on TT and Pivotal. Idk, just a thought.
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Surface temps would be the hurdle and it's obviously way to early to know that. Of course, it could easily be gone come 0z, but hopefully it gives us 1 more shot. If not, then bring on the warmth.
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18z has a real snowstorm on 3/9. Actually has a light appetizer on the 8th too. Surface temps are marginal, but looks like snow west and north of I95. Will need to wait on TT or Wxbell to confirm surface, but 850's are cold enough.
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18z Gfs. Don't ask how, just accept it without questions. Lol
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Having waves track beneath us hasn't been the problem. Lol
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Where has Bubbler been? Last post was Wednesday.
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Gfs likes a storm at the end of the run like the Euro.
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12z AI actually has possible wet snow at the of of its run today from a southern system (no surprise there) that keeps the heaviest precip south, but temps a big problem down south and marginal, at best for us. Again, temps are marginal at best even in NVA & MD.
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I was referring to the southern plains storm as depicted on the operational at 360hrs that JI posted, not the Eps.
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Looks like central and southern VA and NC on track for another big one.
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Fyi, all modeling has a SSW the first week of March meaning cool spring. Meh
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In case you haven't looked, just about everything is showing a legit SSW the first week of March. Enjoy the cool spring.
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50's next week will feel like spring.
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As an example of my post above, 6z AI made a big jump from 0z unlike the ensembles.
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Fwiw, my personal opinion on the AI is that post 7 days it's as unreliable as any other operational run post day 7. Ensembles do better post day 7 imho. Can it be right post day 7? Sure, just as often as any other operational model. Meaning, it's dumb luck. Day 5 and in is when the AI has shined.
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Although not crazy snowy, Thursday's Eps snowfall had the NE, including PA, above normal for the week ending 3/10. Every other week in March was unsurprisingly BN.
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Fantasy land.
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6z Gfs is best case and the AI is, as has it has now become almost every run, the worst case.
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Can't argue with that. It's inevitable anyway. I hope we have a warm spring.
