mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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12Z AI getting it's act together for the 20th. Not quite there but it's headed toward a big event. Scroll forward. All precip is snow thru the 23rd. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502111200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502191200
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Steady-sn
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Approaching Hanover now from my brother's office in Glen Burnie. Seeing first flakes by Codorus.
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Ensembles SE fwiw. But they could rain tonight as much as they jump around.
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Radar seems pretty far north in PA.
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Yeah, I'm just as worried as you.
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It's making slow progress east. https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/nemetro/
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Further https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/us/ir/
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Don't even suggest to me it goes to our south, or else! Lol
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Part 2 is taking longer to get to us, so the warm air has more time to to push out the cold. Looking like part 1 only, for better or worse..
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Nam shifted north some. Has me at 3.5-4" fwiw.
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Idk, Nam came north. Has you at 4"+. Not a bullseye, but a win.
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Sky looks like it could start snowing any minute. But alas...
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Scroll this forward. There aren't any nice 500mb map depictions on the Euro site. Wait for TT. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502110600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502181800
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It's a mess. This is the 3rd run in a row with 2 areas of precip and main area is a low offshore that clips ENE. I didn't bother posting because you know it does crazy stuff post day 5 like all modeling.
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That's because you're not as old as me.
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Why complain? No birthday party, no birthday. Enjoy your extended youth!
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I've been using the SST maps at Cyclonic weather for a couple years, but their radar and sat stuff looks pretty good too. https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/us/ir/ https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/neus/
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Heckofa fetch https://cyclonicwx.com/floater/us/ir/
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Virga storm in progress for most of us. https://radar.weather.gov/station/kccx/standard
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Sounds like a leakage problem.
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Coastal is indicated by the snowfall mean.
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Pattern is so ripe the storm is able to get too wound up. Crazy.
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Actually, slp mean is clearly offshore, but I think those few deep, inland Eps member may be skewing the snowfall mean. EDIT: Like that 975mb over DC. Lol
