mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Rgem is really bad for PA.
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That's who I'm thinking. Lol
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Who? I don't do OT but I can guess.
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If you recall, Gfs and other modeling was calling for a PV split this week, then backed off. It's still a good hit, but is now showing a follow-up hit at the end of the run that almost does split it cleanly. Scroll thru this link to see what I'm talking about https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2025021006&fh=6
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Nam goes with hours of rn imby after the changeover, so hopefully that's overdone in typical Nam fashion.
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Feel better soon. My covid a month ago went fairly fast but I'm a firm believer in vitamin D and zinc. Need at least 5000iu of D.
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Round 2 adds to it in many areas.
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It's odd how the past week or so the ensembles have been dropping more snow than the operationals. I can't recall seeing that for such an extended period. It's usually the operationals dumping large amounts and the ensembles being paultry. I'm one confused weenie!
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6z AI cut back even more on qpf. If it's closer to right than wrong, a whole lot of folks in MD will be unhappy. Some in this forum actually have a shot at doing better with round 2 than 1.
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It's almost shocking to me to see the 0z Eps snowfall imby. Basically drops 5.2" between 2/15 and 2/23, and neither the Euro nor any other operational has didly. Fun or sad times ahead I guess. Lol
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By the way, AI has pushed a lot of precip for tomorrow south. But until other modeling agrees, not worth worrying about.
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Fwiw, AI looking better next week with 3 threats. A light even 2/19, a mod/heavy on 2/21-22, and a final event on 2/25 that's light but heavy precip south of rain & snow which could easily trend better as the 21-22 has over the past few runs. This run is sure to reel Heisey in. Lol
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I'm sick of seeing decent looks on ensembles that rarely materialize on the operationals. There's nothing on operationals after this week. Even the 0z AI has a light snow on 2/22, but that could be gone on the 6z. I'll let you know in 20 minutes.
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This made me chuckle. Top map is the operational Euro total snowfall from 2/5 12z and bottom is last night's 0z Euro. Poor ENE. They did have a 4-6" event Saturday, but that's still a nasty haircut.
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Just have to hope Gfs is correct with a colder/drier part 1 leads to a colder/snowier part 2. Hugging the Gfs almost gives me a bad taste in my mouth. Lol
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Part 2 action ftw in central PA.
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2nd wave pushed me over 6" before the turn over to a brief period of rain. That's what the AI has been showing for days imby.
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WxBell has 10" for BWI and Pivotal says 8". Lol
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Nam ends colder after 1st wave vs 18z.
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0z vs 18z
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Yeah, a baby step north. Gotta hope we maintain the wedge too for the next batch.
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Probably a baby step north. We'll see.
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It'll be close. We'll need a last minute bump bad.
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I don't think the Nam will be an improvement based on composite radar. Heavy stuff stays across MD.
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