mitchnick

I meant PDO. Wait until you get old.

It's official...a +PDO. But is it all downhill from here?

The Cansips, like many of us posters, is pretty unstable. But I've been in lock step with 40/70 for some weeks that, imho, a warm La Nada/weak Niño is favored next winter. At least the Cansips agrees at this point. However, Enso progs before August are definitely low skill...again, like many of us posters. Lol

April Cansips just out has a late blooming week Niño. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025040100&fh=8 Also, pretty cold winter north of Maryland starting in December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8 H5 shows lots of ridging up north too. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025040100&fh=8

April Cansips just posted. Looks like a late blossoming weak Niño. Here's the link to December. It warms after December. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025040100&fh=8 Also, fwiw, lots of ridging to the north all winter with BN temps thru winter as well.

Fwiw, Cfs2 is leaning weak Niño now.

6z Gfs agrees

Getting crushed here with that Special Weather Statement storm. Ughhh...hate severe wx.

Find a new friend.

Cfs2 has been advertising a trough in the east for weeks. Not a winter style trough, a summer one, which is much shallower but still effective in giving us regular shots of more tolerable summer temps. Cfs2 has also been pretty consistent with blocking around the Pole for December too. Here's a link to the most recent of the June 500mb anomalies with a caveat that the Cfs2 for those unfamiliar has 4 runs/day. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025031318&fh=3

End of Gem has something. I think all the models are going to be teasing thanks to the SSW, but that doesn't mean anyone in the forum will see anything. Threats are so scattered.

It will. It's just going to take 9 months to do it.

0z Euro just 2 weeks away.

Euro AI. Close to something pathetic.

Thunder up here.

Looking at many years of data makes me feel old. No thanks.

Today’s updated Euro monthly not sold on a Niño yet.

Today's updated Euro monthly not seeing a Niño yet.

18z Ukmet ensembles. I guess you can say there was an improvement over the 12z run (on top).

Only goes out 66hrs, but the ensembles go out to 198hrs. It's in the process of updating now.

It's also 30-36 hours later than the Gfs.

Yeah, but it's just a rainstorm with no cold air anywhere close to the MA.

What do the precip maps look like?

6 hour Gefs qpf from 18z at 144hrs on top and Eps on the bottom. Lol

I looked at qpf on the JMA and in the DCA/BWI area the scale increased by 2 levels (.5") and 1 level (.25") imby. Heaviest precip on the JMA is in central VA and south and they're likely rain or mix at best. Iow, JMA ain't close to what the Gfs is showing.