mitchnick

Nam bumps heights in the early going from 18z. Here's 27hrs

Nice north bump of heights on Nam at 24hrs

1st waive is a lighter run that started at 12z as 6z was probably one of the wettest. Should be snow at the front end but hard to tell because thermals are OK at start of the 6 hour period but are gone at the end. Probably best to stick with other models with better graphics for part 2 imho.

Latest Srefs Now we're talking

Fwiw 18z AI has a 24hr+ snowstorm on 2/21-2/22.

Flush hit as in the 18z AI big coastal all snow storm on 2/21-2/22 lasting 24hr+?

See, that's what part of my post that I erased mentioned. But, don't worry about it.

I see and post model runs so people can see what the models are showing, but that doesn't mean I believe them. This week is looking like the 1st storm of the season barring a last minute bump north, so I pretty much expect the short end. Part 2 on Thursday may have more snow to start, but the AI has been showing that for many runs, and it still turns to rain anyhow. Next weekend I have no faith in at the moment with the Gem as the current sole source of hope. As for the 20th, it's too far away for me to get excited. I'm not saying people can't or shouldn't be optimistic based on some stuff out there, but I'm pretty numb to all the threats right now, that's all.

Honestly, I'm tired of those southern hits. And I don't really care about ensembles if we're not seeing some consistent hits on the operationals. All we have is 2 runs in a row from the Gem. I expect to lose to NE. I don't expect to lose to NE, MD and VA, including the lower eastern shore of MD and Delaware.

When Cape posts a snowfall map, I always know what that means for me.

Don't those people realize we don't have a life?

I'd feel a whole lot better if we could get some consistent hits on operational runs. Gem is the only one with that right now, and it only has 2 decent runs in a row. I had a longer post that I decided to erase, so I'll leave it at that for now.

Hideous

WxBell maps are too generous with snow as I'm pretty sure I posted last night. Interestingly, I was reading the NE forum thread on their storm last night and the guys down in Mass and CT that were bullseyed by modeling got less than the thought while the colder regions in NH and VT did better than modeled. So I'm thinking with better ratios up here and models overdoing totals possibly, we might be pleasantly surprised how things turn out.

Under the part that says "I agree to pay Mitchnick..."

I'm around 5.3" on that map while BWI is around 10"....arghhhhhh!! Do I think it's right? Nope

Looking at the composite radar, it looks a touch better than 12z. But this is probably just noise.

Just gunna post it's looking further north.

24hrs for 19th/20th Eps snowfall

We'll call it the "Psu Lucky Guess" storm. Lol

Impressive Eps snowfall mean yet again.

Pretty impressive Eps snowfall mean at 324hrs. Must be some members falling for the Gfs and Gem for next week and weekend.

The maroon color over you is very heavy snow and not zr or sleet.

9z Sref mean https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025020909&fh=87&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&m=srefens