mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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You might be right on the theory that a colder Saturday suggests more blocking and that is likely to hold next week and push our storm south. I don't think it would, though, but do believe the final track of next week's threat will be effected by this weekend's storm i.e. this weekend is the table setter. In that regard, a track further west would be better I think. But it's all pure speculation.
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Could be worse...could have been a double play.
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Not feeling it down here for Saturday. Looks like Lancaster north and east will do pretty well though.
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Getting foggy in Hanover
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More members west of the mean than east. Seems like a few far east members may be pulling the mean east.
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One positive I see on the 0z Eps is that the bulk of the slp members are west of the mean.
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I have a chance of snow in my forecast fwiw.
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That's the problem with getting the storm up to us.
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Ukie ensembles just out says it's a fairly even distribution with a slight favor on the eastern half of the forum.
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6z Gefs isn't congrats DC.
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The screw was tightened a half a turn more.
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I agree. It's tiresome, but last year DC had a few inches for the whole winter and BWI didn't do much better. I had almost 20". Payback is a biatch.
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6z AI another scraper and ever so slightly less qpf.
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6z AI another scraper and ever so slightly less qpf.
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I can't disagree, but considering the crowd, I thought 5 was the outer limit. Lol
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6z Euro is not as amped, but that looks to me to be because it's slower. It won't matter what it shows in a few hours so not worth worrying about.
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I posted in the MA that models didn't come to the general correct idea (centered south of us) of yesterday's storm until Thursday of last week; basically 5 days prior. We're going to need to wait until this weekend and are in that 5 day period. Modeling outside of 5 days really is garbage 95% of the time.
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0z was better in that it was a scraper vs a total whiff at 18z. 6z will be out at 8. I'll share.
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Like I said yesterday, although scrutinizing models is what we do 24/7, we're really not going to get any sort of reliable consensus until the weekend.
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As great as the Euro was, the 0z Eps snowfall has a familiar "stink" to them. Lol
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Was last night's Gem posted for next week?
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Euro remains stubborn for Saturday denying those south of central PA of any accumulations. But it seems to be on its own.
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It isn't, but I think it's more that it's slower than 0z. Tpv is north of 0z moving south and the vort off of Maine is further west.
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No, that's not out until 2/25.
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Well, coastal NC and SE VA get hit, so I stand corrected.
