mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Better ridging out front this run than 0z at 226hrd
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Tpv is much wider and flatter this run from 0z
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Gfs at 138hrs and 6z Euro at 144hrs
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The tpv never seems to make it east.
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Nothing at all imby. Lol
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Practice makes perfect. Just wait for the Euro.
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Add the Gfs
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12z Nam and Rgem bring accumulating snows of 1-2"+ south of the MD line for southern folks fwiw. They both bring to to most others as well, of course.
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If you look at the AI site, the 850's are at or below freezing. Normal 850's this time of year are below freezing.
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That's after it ends. Accumulating precip starts with the 228hr panel, which I've linked. If you scroll forward, temps drop during the heavy precip. Yes, N&W would do better. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2025021406&fh=228
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In your back yard, part of it would be mix/rain. North and west would be a paste job.
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Honestly, I stopped looking at it to closely with the last 24-36 hours and was only focused imby. I don’t recall exactly what it had, but TT has old runs going back to 2/7, so you'd get your answer there.
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6z Ukie ensembles are a little lighter and shifted east some from 0z.
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For laughs, 24hr qpf from the AI for 2/24 and that's not all of it. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2025021406&fh=246
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I wished the 6z operational and Eps could trade places, but that would probably mean many overamped members.
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I hope so! Lol Honestly, I liked the 6z Euro operational more than the Eps, but that's me.
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Here's 6hr snowfall 144hr vs 150 0z
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I had some posts earlier on it.
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AI really has been the evil twin of the Euro. But I haven't seen it show a bomb that hits us like the 2/24 storm on this run fwiw. At this range, I would still favor the operationals and their ensembles.
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Well if next week fails, we have this to fail. Lol
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This isn't even all the qpf. It's in the 1-2" qpf. Again, there's more.
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BUT Sunday 2/24 is a HUGE HIT!
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Ughhh 6z AI offshore
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Yeah, I hadn't looked at the Eps. 144hrs precip field is definitely east of 0z, but the slp is south of 0z which suggests a bit slower. Otoh, the tpv is east of 0z by a good bit. The question is whether with the tpv further east, would the precip field have been pulled west some.
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6z a little slower than 0z and definitely further west. 700mb Fgen
