mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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Honestly, I'm tired of those southern hits. And I don't really care about ensembles if we're not seeing some consistent hits on the operationals. All we have is 2 runs in a row from the Gem. I expect to lose to NE. I don't expect to lose to NE, MD and VA, including the lower eastern shore of MD and Delaware.
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When Cape posts a snowfall map, I always know what that means for me.
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Don't those people realize we don't have a life?
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I'd feel a whole lot better if we could get some consistent hits on operational runs. Gem is the only one with that right now, and it only has 2 decent runs in a row. I had a longer post that I decided to erase, so I'll leave it at that for now.
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Hideous
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WxBell maps are too generous with snow as I'm pretty sure I posted last night. Interestingly, I was reading the NE forum thread on their storm last night and the guys down in Mass and CT that were bullseyed by modeling got less than the thought while the colder regions in NH and VT did better than modeled. So I'm thinking with better ratios up here and models overdoing totals possibly, we might be pleasantly surprised how things turn out.
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Under the part that says "I agree to pay Mitchnick..."
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I'm around 5.3" on that map while BWI is around 10"....arghhhhhh!! Do I think it's right? Nope
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Looking at the composite radar, it looks a touch better than 12z. But this is probably just noise.
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Just gunna post it's looking further north.
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24hrs for 19th/20th Eps snowfall
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We'll call it the "Psu Lucky Guess" storm. Lol
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Impressive Eps snowfall mean yet again.
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Pretty impressive Eps snowfall mean at 324hrs. Must be some members falling for the Gfs and Gem for next week and weekend.
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The maroon color over you is very heavy snow and not zr or sleet.
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9z Sref mean https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025020909&fh=87&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&m=srefens
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Much more elevation dependent.
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Accumulations are much more elevation dependent on the Rgem vs Nam. Resolution must be higher.
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Icon is meh for everyone, even in MD/VA, so forget about it.
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Rgem
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Nam
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I'm just saying what it shows. Who knows what it will end up being.
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Yeah, but it's basically a rain storm. Might be some front end frozen, but the slp passes west of the Appalachians. Euro isn't much better.
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6z AI cut back on qpf some. Can't say for sure, so you'll need to wait until one of the other sites comes out. It does seem to be going back and further over the last 6 runs or so.
