mitchnick
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Everything posted by mitchnick
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No
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Gefs
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Yesterday, the Euro followed the Ukie. Let's see if history repeats.
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Really should use the bias corrected (bc) version. Still gets onto 8 but very weak.
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Won't live or die by gfs operational.
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Looks like there's a part 2 coming too.
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Similar to yesterday's solution.
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Those great forecasts were on the runs with a split of the PV thanks to a SSW. All the models have backed down from that so I doubt they come back without a return of the PV split/SSW, and that would be a miracle at this point.
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If we get the overrunning before the slp forms, that's what gives us a shot at the double digit outcomes, but we'll need both overrunning and the slp to contribute. Otherwise, it's a 3-6" or 8" best case.
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Yes
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AI Thursday qpf
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AI qpf main event
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None are perfect all the time. It's hit or miss. I'm just reporting what it shows and not saying it’s going to be right or better than any other model.
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6z Ukie ensembles improved over 0z run from Fredericksburg north.
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The precip amounts are really hard to judge totals because the range on the maps is huge. All I can say confidentially is that it's at least 6", and that would be at 10:1 ratios. 850's are cold on the AI, close to -8 up here and between -4 and -8 south of the PA border until around DC, the -4 to 0 into Central VA.
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To clarify, they do move north so Saturday, VA into Central MD have lost thermals between 0z and 6z. But Saturday is not a big event.
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Thermals (850's) thru central VA are fine from Monday until Saturday between 6z and 12z. Based on slp locations, I would expect all levels to be fine as well.
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1st flakes start before 12z Tiesday and don't end until just before 13z Wednesday. Then there's a second wave that comes in on Thursday that's probably a 2-4". Then Saturday has another event but we lose 850's after a modest accumulation.
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6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!!
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Since we're now talking less than 5 days before start time, if the 6z AI comes in looking close to the 0z run or better, imho you can start getting cocky again about a big event.
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Not out until 8. But the 0z that Will posted was Grrrrreat!
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6z Euro/Eps only go out 144hrs as most know. 6z looks better that 0z with only a slight shave off the southern portion.
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I'm done for the night.
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Lol
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Here's the problem. 12z vs 0z. SER is a killer and trough out west is digging more, which is what's pumping the SER.
