We can always remember how all guidance had its failure. But when I compared that map to the 6z Eps, it's surprisingly similar and 850 temps are as close to identical as 2 different ensembles can be. So Srefs aren't perfect, but not worth discarding completely imho.
Latest Srefs 84hrs has quite the phase.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2026012109&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1
Sell the house, pocket the tax free profits, and don't look back. That's what I did. You can always by online from Costco and make a visit to the closest Costco a pleasure drive.
Well, I try not to go up there when it gets bad, but I can imagine it's a nightmare with storms now where close to this one. But that is one of my favorite drives.
Fwiw, maybe the bleeding has stopped at least on the GGEM. 6z out to 84hrs, which is it's 6z and 18 limit, has a colder push in our back yards. Not a huge difference, but colder nonetheless.