mitchnick

6z AI cut back some on qpf. It seems to be going back and forth some over the last 6 runs or so.

0z AI ends with a potential monster coastal storm. It's just getting going at the endvof the run. It's not cold. More of a March storm.

0z AI looks to have gotten a little bit juicier but not by much. Again, I could be wrong on that but I feel confident it didn't reduce qpf or shift south.

Gotta love that block on the Euro tonight. As my late father would say, I could spit nails right now!

Not to be technical, but nobody's been right or wrong since it hasn't happened. But I agree with your point that it's like the blind leading the blind with the modeling and the Mets. I also agree that no one can apparently nail this one down in advance. In the end, I'll bet the AI and/or the Ukie wins as being the most consistent and accurate.

The Kuchera numbers are lower on Pivotal. WxBell are always the highest. I seem to be stuck at 4-5". Not bad, but I always look at my old home and when I see they're double me, my blood boils. Lol The only reason why I moved up here without a fight (with my wife) was the snow. Of course, the last event when I got 6.5" and they got 1", I was fine. Lol But that's the way it used to be. I swear the number of events where BWI got more snow than Hanover has been incredible vs before I moved here. It was rare before, now it's commonplace. Global warming my a$$!

All we need is 25-50 miles in 72 hours. That's doable.

Not much movement north in totals unfortunately.

See the difference. It's starting north.

Slight move north in heights continues thru 45hrs. Not much, but better than them sinking south causing us to backpedal.

Slight movement north in heights on the Euro thru 33hrs suggesting a move north this run.

Gfs loves the SER too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025020900&fh=294&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Ukie has been incredibly consistent for days. Along with the AI.

Ukie

Ukie

Just don't buy those big numbers in central VA. DC/BWI I could see.

It does, but unimpressive up here. 18 hours of snow with an accumulation of 2.5-3".

Hours and hours of snow with little accumulations. I guess we needed a new way to fail.

Graphics are way overdone on Pivotal. Snow covers the area for 2- 3hr frames with only a dusting.

Coming in at a better angle too. More 1:30/7:30.

Nam a few hours slower to get things going. Hopefully that helps.

If we don't get Nam'ed, I'll be very disappointed.

I still remember waking up real early Sunday morning to check out the 6z Eta and my heart sank a bit thinking the rug was getting pulled out. Then 12z rolled out and it was over. Sooo fresh in my mind. Darn shame memories from 25 years ago are easier than 25 minutes.

No other threats show verbatim on 18z AI, so it better get juiced.