mitchnick

They always win in a Niña.

Hmmm, special pants for sex?

Including the old FOLKS????

Uh oh....

I agree it's probably a "cheesy" way of getting to those totals, but we haven't had a snowfall mean like that, cheesy or legit, since 2016. So there's something to be said about that, which it sounds like you sorta acknowledged so I don't want to make it sound like I'm being critical.

I was thinking, the Eps mean looks right based on what the AI is showing but not the Euro operational. Also, how often is the ensemble snowfall mean more than the operational? I don't know, but it's pretty rare if my memory in correct.

Add the AI to the list.

Since it's probably been since 1/16 when we saw an Eps snowfall mean this good, I had to post it since nobody else did

Tuesday has less qpf and a little south. Next Saturday looks real nice.

This is thru only 300 hrs. Some of those waves must be scoring.

Comes out at 2pm.

6z AI very similar to 0z but maybe a touch more precip to the north of 0z. It then has a light event Wednesday night into Thursday. Then Tuesday 2/17 has a moderate event. Thursday 2/20-21 has a stronger storm with initial temp issues. That can and will change. P.s. I have not mentioned any rain events.

My road looks fine even with little traffic.

Lot of sleet and zr. Now for a nice morning drive down to Towson.

6z Euro has the boundary further south at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs fwiw.

It was over at that point on the 0z.

Just keeps getting better and better.

It did, but it was so far out I figured it wasn't worth mentioning. Model exhaustion.

Oz Ukie

0Z AI shifted south some.

This IS the long range thread. Lol

Total

NE will get an average or above winter after all.

Here are the 850's and 500mb at the start of the event. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-z500-t850?base_time=202502051800&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502190600 Here's the surface. It looks like the storm starts warm and then temps crash but there decent precip we'll after the cold. Not your typical precip chasing cold. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502051800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502190600