mitchnick

6z AI has a threat for Saturday 2/15 but it's not clean and has some precip issues. It has a lot of qpf. That weekend has been a period of interest for a few days. Suffice to say it will change a lot between now and then. Nothing additional of great interest on this run.

6z AI brought south a bit the Tuesday precip similar to 18z yesterday. BUT, late Wednesday night into Thursday is mostly snow along (maybe a touch N&W) of the fall line. For places north and west that stay all snow bith events are probably low double digits. Haven't looked at the rest of run. Will post any additional threats in the Long Range thread.

That is total, so it includes some on Saturday. This is the 11th/12th. Sorry But it's an improvement from 0z below.

Eps mean 11th/12th

2nd storm may not be great on the 6z, but this is a pretty sweet ending.

AI also has rain to moderate snow next Saturday into Sunday.

0z AI now keeps a lot of people snow for the follow up on Thursday.

So you want to be in the bullseye on the Gfs 100+ hours out when no other modeling has you bullseyed?

Not fast enough for the old man, eh? See ya' in AAA kid!

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2025020700&fh=111&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Gem looks good

If #1 is south, so will #2.

Since game time is still 102hrs+, we're fine. None of the ensembles center the bullseye south of us anyway.

No, but I may be...

18z Ukie ensembles thru 198hrs...Eps'ish

I posted in the 11th/12th thread 18z looks like 12z with a little more precip expanded north. Hard to be precise with the graphics. Additional snow threats on the AI run: 1) Saturday 2/15 Moderate event that may end as mix or rain after 80% snow 2) Wednesday 3/19 light event that looks to have potential for more. It was a bigger event on earlier runs 3) End of run 2/21 Big storm heading east with a nice trough. Could be big a day or 2 later but could be rain. EDIT: Follow-up storm next Thursday mainly rain after a little snow or frozen

18z AI looks identical to 12z with a hair more precip expanded north. Additional threats I'll put in the extended thread.

They always win in a Niña.

Hmmm, special pants for sex?

Including the old FOLKS????

Uh oh....

I agree it's probably a "cheesy" way of getting to those totals, but we haven't had a snowfall mean like that, cheesy or legit, since 2016. So there's something to be said about that, which it sounds like you sorta acknowledged so I don't want to make it sound like I'm being critical.

I was thinking, the Eps mean looks right based on what the AI is showing but not the Euro operational. Also, how often is the ensemble snowfall mean more than the operational? I don't know, but it's pretty rare if my memory in correct.

Add the AI to the list.