WEATHER53
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Everything posted by WEATHER53
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Superior event in terms of wind, rainfall and temp drop stating otherwise is attention whore trolling.
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40 mph gusts are back
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30 degree drop in 5 hours 77 to 47 at 1:30am
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Mega Front 25 drop in 3 hours from 77 to 52 at 11:30
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Max gust here to 44 and 1.5” rain so far. Dynamic front, 14 degree drop in 45 minutes. It was 77 when my grandson went out, I don’t remember a warmer one. Glad the kids got their time in before what was an impressive very late October squall line but probably overhyped tornado talk
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A confirmation analog we like is very late Oct coastal crawlers. Few exceptions but usually not a good sign for winter. Look clear this year
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It looks like a snow map.
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38 here for low
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Looks like 1” on grass now
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I did mine over in mid Atlantic so along with where else you put yours could you put yours in that thread?
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1.2” here and first time more than 0.25 since late August
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Yes. Very good again. When is your winter?
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Where is the chart? Thanks
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I like to stick with DCA as the temp comparative even with it flaws. Reason is start using records from before then and it’s different locations and vastly different population and development Some of this record heat has 86 characteristics and that 87 was The winter it snowed every time there was a chance.
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Amazing high heat today. Sun definitely weaker but 97+ is Hot Wonder when last time all 3 set heat record in Oct is?
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Very early October heat matches well to the cold Dec and Jan, mild Feb. decent snow season analogs.
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Certain occurrent weather from about March thru August. Once that is obtained we “flavor” that with the Enso but we do not start with the Enso as determinant
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Mid-Atlantic summer hottest temperature contest
WEATHER53 replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
How about a combo top 15 from winter and summer contests? -
BWI 11/10 IAD 11/3 DCA 11/24 RIC 11/17 Rainfall 8”
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Not a bad winter for cold and snow lovers Dec: -2 to -3 Jan:-3 to -5 Feb :+2 to +4 Overall: -1 to -1.5 Snowfall DCA:12-16” Suburbs:15-20” Analog years 1955(56), 1960(61), 1999(2000), 2003(04), 2010(11), 2018(19) i think it’s around average or slightly mild thru mid December and then becomes very cold thru late January before a dramatic flip to milder temps thru February. Looking forward to reading other outlooks
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Here come the inflow clouds, breezy and getting cooler.
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I think the ENSO results are Not as “in stone” determinant as we thought back 2003-2013. You had people swearing and livid that analogs could not be used because a referenced year was a weak Nina and the upcoming year looked to be weak Nino. I don’t know and I don’t think anybody really does what is the deciding factor. I do know that for the DC area if the cold air does not set up almost perfectly then snow is hard to come by but what controls and dictates that is up to debate and discovery.
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Yeah I think you are next in line behind Matt and Keith but very close and your stats suggest even better. I know I always value yours and look forward to it.
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KA has retired from the long range forecasts. Other than Matt Ross nobody had a lengthy track record like that, approaching 70% and to my record keeping since 1980 there were just 4 times where he missed on both snowfall and temps with 22 double hits and just the four mentioned double misses. i will be still doing mine and I’m about 62/63% but not as good as he or Matt.
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NWS in the overall does an adequate job. It may be a C or B- but they don’t fail. I don’t evaluate them as if they are the only source. I don’t think they have to be “the very best” source either. They serve the public. They may not serve us well enough but we have sharper needs and info.
