WEATHER53

My Winter Outlook for DC area 2021-22 Temps:-0.5 to -2.5. Snowfall:12-15” i don’t have a monthly order because too much conflict. Analog years 1979-80, 1992-93, 2010-11 interesting to note 1979 had a record setting snow around 10/10 so let’s see if we get a cold precip event. 1993 had probably the biggest weather event ever around here March 1993. We dont give the credit for huge single events like that but do apply 5” credit We deemphasize ENSO as it’s erratic and it always come down to the cold air source for DC. We mostly take occurrent events from March into Sept and look for matching patterns or events and forecast forward. I remember about 3/4 years ago Isotherm and me both predicted a -5 February and it hit and although I don’t say Feb I do think we have one -4/-5 month. Thats it and let us know what your outlook is.

Getting gusty up to 30

3 main analogs are good but not great. We continue to deemphasize ENSO analoging and increase a little blocking/cold air source

Winter looking decent

Power back on so good job Pepco!

Explosion up the street and power out here but not street behind . Pole transformer ?

How deep is the water there?

Will issue outlook as usual on equinox. Got it done and just waiting.

It’s the Greatest failure of the internet. Instead of increasing the opportunity for greater information exchange it spawns trolls who contribute zero but get their loser shits and giggles from interrupting serious and solid exchanges of truly valuable info.

Annapolis/Edgewater rated yet?

Camille had the infamous Hurricane Party at an inland hotel that ended up not far enough inland

We were about 3-5 miles southeast of the Frederick flooding. Gullies that look dry became torrents .

Feels like fall out there at 64 after tropical low 80’s. In a way this was a “fall” front so did that help escalate things today? Not be be able old pops dude but you teens and 20’s will remember this for a lifetime. Hazel and Sandy and Isabel and half dozen others are easy memories but Ida will stick also. Crazy early morning deluge, calms down, goes world class nuts in the afternoon, rips up Edgewater and Annapolis. Who knows what very localized max winds they may asses?? Plus it’s up in NJ/NY raising hell right now! I love benchmarks and for a remnant tropical event this is easy top 5 for me. Not really all if this one in my backyard but close enough

3.2” final tally for me from 2am to 7pm

I think Ivan had 12 tornado touchdowns mostly in same area snd today 5 but ranging from Frederick to Annapolis?

Most widespread and impressive since Ivan 2005?

That batch of heavy missed me to east by 3/4 miles

Looks like more dangerous closing in The repeat Gloomy Gusses who declared it “all over” around 2-3pm probably should be in banter or perhaps learns somethings

Probably not. Gotta see what clusters from south to Wsw do over next 2 hours as far as movement and increase in coverage/intensity

Just hit 3” since 2am

Pouring. 0.2” in 15 mins.

The sun stuff is mistaken. 75 degrees+ and 80%+ humidity don’t need no stinking sun

Dont know exactly when but roughly from 2:15 to 4am I received 2.2”. Mostly this hollow or muffled thunder and constant lightning for half hour.

Topper on and sounds grave.

You guys know how to forecast so please help me out because I got vans and trucks going back and forth from Beltsville to Frederick tomorrow including back roads near Monocacy. I need your input to get a decision finally about what to do and because of it I’m not on top of Ida. Thanks