WEATHER53

What’s 30.70 going to do? Almost uncharted territory

Synoptic history is the way to go but it requires years of monitoring events to establish a pattern of outcome. Models use very little analog data and are mostly math calculations of A +B=C or B+C=D, examples; but not prediction. Almost the only think I look at now is precedent and current 500mb patterns and as something gets closer then 850s and boundary. Keith does this also and is better with seasonal patterns then anyone I’ve ever met or seen and hes nailing it again this winter. Start keeping records of set ups and outcomes. It takes a while but if you do it to even 60% accuracy then you won’t need to wring your hands over every 6 hours.

Remember models are not predictors of outcome nor even “most likely scenario”.They cover all the bases for a time frame and somewhere in representation over a 1-7 day period one of those projections will confirm and thus more funding to do it all over again. if you want to be a model reader then fine but if you want to learn how to predict what will most likely happen then a different method must be employed.

Even has a look of low just goes northwest and never does more than throw a warm front up this way(again). Get high to be on the nipple, or udder if you wish, of Hudson/James Bay and it would be special long duration.

See how the isobar line connected with the high runs thru western md. Before decoupling. That’s a snow marker for DC

Get this high 150-200 miles to west and we are golden.

It won’t make it past extreme southern KY

We are back to OK again as predicted starting Sunday. I don’t think the Tuesday event cuts but rather snugs up against western side of mountains along WV/Va border and we get yet another long mostly light-moderate overrunning event.

It’s 37 outside and after 2 day mild up I still have frozen on the fully shaded patio. Granular water slush that refreezes and small shovel chunks. That ground got so cold and frozen down to what?-a foot?-I don’t know but deeper than normal and still radiating like crazy.

By Sunday we are back in winter business with one more arctic surge which will discuss later

KA very good on temps for first two months and near right on mark for snow. My temp call poor for Jan but Ok for Dec and snow call very good so far

Winter does not continue nor end based on WxRisk. Maybe you all can learn to assess situations yourself rather than rely on media sorts

It’s been a good winter. I stated in our long range outlook update in late November that the dye was cast for a lot of cutters. That has been the case but we have gotten good cold shots on the return flow as they depart and then solid highs setting up in right place where we have had two 10 hour plus events. What has prevented the winter from being even better is that those strong highs settle southeastward instead of moving off Maine and we get very mild. We’ve been getting solid cold shots since early November and we have more to come.

Left Salisbury 530, 23F and got into light snow in Seaford and now moderate snow in Harrington, 2.5” and 19F

Travel narrative: Left DC at noon with 1.3” encountered heavy snow on Kent Island to Easton and measured 3” in Easton. Most highway driving 45-50. Temperatures ranged 18-22. Got to Dalisbury 10 minutes ago, 0.5” and 26 hpw much around DC?

1.3”

Don’t get swallowed by a drift nor et by a bear pilgrim!

0.25 or so gets squished, the water squeezes out, film of slick ice. Very bad with an inch there is enough granular left after the compression so that it’s not a slick thin film of frozen

0.75”, steady light to very light snow, 18F

Nailed it with my forecast last night that this was not going to be mostly to our north. Boundary and 500-700mb depictions had precip mass moving right toward us with wind vectors and isobars moving precipitation mass along the rails and right towards us

First clouds now here and temp up to 14.

Nope. Right over top of us with 9-12 hours of 0.25ph. My big question is temps from 11am until it end. We don’t have a sun issue but sun is different than 2-4 weeks ago. So at 28+ the very light snow just won’t accumulate. But, if we are 25/26 I think it overcomes and would get an inch in that time frame.

Thanks for letting us know we might be getting snow More than is being thought and you will be all cheerful and smiley!

That nice blob in Ohio is moving e-ese. This one has to be watched.

We look to be 85% where the snow gets made but it’s so cold every flake accumulates. This might last 9-12 hours.