WEATHER53

First flakes 1:35pm 25.5F

16 with 2 dewpoints . gonna be real different watching the low bust into this very cold near 0 dewpoint air.

David is perhaps the best discusser I know of what it takes for the area to get big snow versus not. Unfortunately, for reasons that elude me, he is much less skilled at accurately predicting what an individual event will do.

The forever silly melancholy overspreads . Why be here?

That’s what we call a flat high and it’s perfect but storm too far away.

Plus it’s not a forecast anyway, just another 6 hour example of a possible outcome.

Not worried about track west of DC with a 1030 to wnw and 1030 to ne. Would love to see that ne high be 100-150 miles further west come game time.

Cold air departing and low right on coast too warm. If high can’t do any better then need low further east. That’s a rare request

Colder over Boston than Pittsburg and that’s often bad angle of cold

I think we’ve seen just about all the possibilities so will be time to replay all the possible outcomes thru Friday. The cold high will again be the determinant and we need about 30.20+ to keep the low from moving due north . 30.00 at game time won’t do it.

I was way off on last nights low temps and would be odd if they do it tonight but I think we will level off too soon .

18F at 10:40 Running cold I know but still 60% snowpack and full shade all day just makes cold. 28 for a high but 25 or lower from 1:30 backward and then 25 or sub from 5:30pm to current. Solid cold on a sunny and not much wind day.

Patterning right now is that to the west isn’t happening because cold highs are where they need to be. Yesterday it was a Carolina blizzard and DC zip, now maybe a mixed mess or to the west with rain and 45. This is yet another clear example of present all the outcomes and then claim correctness no matter what happens. Models dont forecast what is The Most Likely outcome. They present examples of what could happen, many and varied. Acceptance of this will decrease angst for those who seek decreased anxiety. Others are perfectly happy with the myriads of wholesale changes every 6 hours and all the varying outcome potentials thereof. The current method provides the best circumstance for confirmation of a verified forecast for continued funding but it doesn’t provide the best possible weather resource information consistently. Gotta be a high powered computer somewhere which can process analog and prevailing pattern info to derive forecasts from. I think much less waffling would come from that. Right now though there is too much resistance to making a forecast and seeing how to stick with it rather than constantly changing.

The depictions are historic suppression looking and I dont see a strong enough high in the right place to do that

You are right. Winds might go calm at dawn and that would allow but winds keeping up 10+ won’t allow

Going to average 1.5F drop rate the rest of the way so that gets us to 15-17 for a DCA low, 16 my call

Still got 90% snow cover in shaded area and down here near creek so high today just 33.5 sticking with my call from several days ago for a low of 16 at DCA

Still got 90% snow cover in shaded area and down here near creek so high today just 33.5

We got a good pattern and likely best pattern since the 2013-16 run. For DC it’s always about the cold source and Mongolia has been sending us some nice nice and Pacific is not belching Pacific air up into Canada.

Lots of trailing precip way down to Alabama. Can cold air make it back in and change it to snow before moisture gone?

Up from 26 to 27 Best one week of winter since when?

DCA will easily make it below 20 with my min prediction during the stretch of 16.

Ok

11pm Obs. 21.3F winds down to 10 mph. 100% snow cover with 70% 4”+. Kinda all that we’re here for.

6pm obs 24.5F, down 1.5 from previous hour. NW wind 16mph, WC 14.