WEATHER53

In early November the source region of cold air was excellent and in evidence and that continued into mid December. Then abruptly that stopped and never returned. Why? No one knows. Perhaps God or the myriad of alphabet indexes crafted to explain the unexplainable. By just before Christmas the first “return to cold in 10 days” came and went. Now the disaster was underway. History shows that when the very first “return to cold” fails that 80% of the time the colder never re-emerges. Feb 2007 was a big exception but that was 13 years ago so figure the odds on your own. Observation threads are still a delight and discussing 3-5 day leads is worthy but all the multi paragraphs clamoirings over unproven indexes and models really doesn’t lend anything.

Then go play In 5-15 day everything and nothing fantasy land

Nice to have something to follow its High Pressure watching time to see if it can relax to about 30.25 come crunch time

Ok then even better once again

We realize you have to personalize a response when no one spoke to you directly. Reminds me of the Pied Piper JoeB or WxRisk days where those guys felt omnipotent my script is the factual outcomes while you chase 15+ day fantasy pattern changes

My outlook was bad got Feb temps right but missed Dec and Jan and winter as a whole. Had the right idea about less than average snow Think Matt and Isotherm did much better on temps but also think they had at or above average snowfall Truth is I thought we would be cold for Dec thru mid/late Jan and then quite mild We ended up being cold 30 days earlier, November into mid Dec. i dont know if “wasting the cold” is valid or not but this has been a case for it.

Simply must laugh at the touted pattern change for early March that has been offered up since early Jan.

I think championship team was 19-3 at this point but don’t think anyone else better than 19-4

Man that blew thru here big time at 830 42mph gust and .75” in 30 minutes

Yes we know you have appointed yourself the Big Dog here with every 8 paragraph post. Over the last almost 20 years we’ve had a number claim stake for a few years Models are a fraud. They waste taxpayers money trying to solve a riddle they cant No money should be spend on anything past 3 days maybe 5. The reason-models can’t do it. Maybe 10% of the time they stick with a hit and it happens. Otherwise it’s show all sorts of outcomes in the 5-15 day and at 4 per days that’s 20-60 outcomes. Guess what, one will be right so present that to Feds as your success come Federsl funding renewal time. My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. I derive no satisfaction from endlessly changing example of possible weather, I want to forecast as to most probable outcome. Models can’t do that and have not tightened things up in last 20 years do let’s tryanother route.

What a science!!!

Been a terrible year for many seasoned forecasters who forecasted a stone cold turn to cold in early Jan and now talking about March. just way too many unproven indexes with a new one being conjured up each season and uncessful attempts to bundle some and avoid some. We have made astonishing little progress in last 20 years and unfortunately doubling down on what isnt working is not working.

I think years ago we may have had a “model discussion” separate thread and a “weather forecasting/discussion” thread. There is more to it all then models solely so might be good to try the seperation again.

This is a weather discussion thread and not solely a model affirmation thread

There is no need to know that has an effect on 99% of the population beyond 5 days AND models can’t do it anyway so what the point its a self fulfilling confirmation effort on the part of models to show 30 and snow in DC with a low off VA and 6-12 hours later show a central lakes cutter with rain and 60. Wow. What a tool, no rather it is a tool (deragatory) shows everything between the coastal and cutter and then come confirmation time for federal funding you can claim you got it because one outcome did occur. I’m glad my doctors technology has improved over the last 20 years so he does not have to hunt and peck between all possible outcome. We have been sold a bill of bad goods that largely exists to self sustain and has very little predictive emphasis toward what is the most likely, most accurate forecast of an outcome. i know “it’s all we have” but that’s too desperate and is not leading to any advancement skill wise.

No first we would actually be in a good pattern and then the higher odds of one would show up.

All show examples of weather but no predictive emphasis to it

Presenting all of the opportunities, one of which will hit

Once the “two weeks away” cycle starts it rarely relinquishes. To a degree we did waste below average temps Nov. into Dec.

Delayed but not denied is mostly a cover up for a busted forecast. Timing is one of The Critical components of a forecast. Always two weeks away is a component of that which may after several months finally verify

We know you are a model lover with 6 paragraph discussions three times a day over the last 15 years I have had a different type of outcome in attempting to utilize them. it would be interesting for other board participants to chime in as to their experiences and beliefs . the 750 mike swing in a few days that you describe as “excellent work” I would have to disagree with.

750 mile variance is futility of prediction in action

So summary was 4-5” Sunday and Monday, blowing, never got above 20 from Sunday into this morning Good winter buzz.

Getting a nice winter fix here. Blowing snow last night most of that I’ve been on for years. Wind chill 0. Tonight did walk around at 11 degrees but slight breezes. Fun. Recommend it.

4-5” here since Sunday afternoon, very light flurries currently and 18