Air mass Rgb looks good now from historical outcome perspective. Later on to so tn border I hope. . Next front of bitter cold seems to be holding north move to limited.
Maybe this just slides to Nc/Va border and not so much have to hop over mountains and redevelop too far out,
The “problem” is there are like 6 moving parts to this. No forecast can be derived from that. The first snow was an already organized low pressure moving northeast from Atlanta. Virtually no moving parts and easy to forecast with usually confirmed outcome
The last storm that was easily pushed out had a 1040 high settling into West PA. This cold source does not have as much strength and is mostly settled in instead of moving in.
Randy I just had some oysters up at a place in Frederick called Shuckin Shack. Chincoteagues no less.
I could pick you up and we go to Harris on Kent Island for their AYCE Oysters 7 ways (including fresh shucked right in front of you) .Or do Old Ebbits again
You make the call!
It’s Ok
We love the snow and cold and Dc is a very tough area to get a good idea of if a snow event will occur and models Do Not Help to zero in on that by the myriad of examples they switch to every 6 hours.
Some people have hissies whenever I state that Fact, you don’t, and I gained immense relief personally when I adopted that attitude. For this storm the models will begin forecasting noon Thursday, up until then a lot of “if this then that” examples are all they are.
Something like this has never happened and there is a reason for that. It doesn’t.
There have been maybe 1 or 2 in 50 years where OC got 12+ and this area 1-3.
we’ve still got 8 more 6 hour cycles to cover the bases and by noon Thursday something will settle in that’s a forecast as opposed to examples.
We do so much worse with a true B than anything. Looks good to the west, forecasted to transfer to Outer banks but transfers off Rehobeth instead, Baltimore gets a little, northeast MD a little more, Wilmington to Boston get a lot.