WEATHER53

That’s an explicit idea and although I was rebuked about where the main center of circulation is, it seems like you concur? When NWS was jumping all over the place late this morning they had DcA mixing by now then reverted back to snowfall slightly past dark. We are losing the high pressure support but the low well may end up east of here and not over or west. 1994 had one like this but the snow only lasted 30 minutes then low 20’s freezing rain. Right now low would have to head NW to end up west of DC. Memories of that kind of move from on the coast are very rare.

4pm obs Light-moderate snow, 0.5”ph rate, 1” accum. Down to 23.5

Can you give me a rundown on Parrs Ridge and where it runs from? Thanks

Well I guess it comes down to what can be seen with the eye versus graphic analysis

Bob is that sleet or heavier snow? Thanks

Satellite looks like center of circulation is on coast. We don’t warm up usually when it’s there.

3pm obs light-moderate snow, 0.5”ph rate, 0.5” accumulation, temp down 1.5F to 24.

My lowest is 28.17 March 93

First flakes 1:35pm 25.5F

16 with 2 dewpoints . gonna be real different watching the low bust into this very cold near 0 dewpoint air.

David is perhaps the best discusser I know of what it takes for the area to get big snow versus not. Unfortunately, for reasons that elude me, he is much less skilled at accurately predicting what an individual event will do.

The forever silly melancholy overspreads . Why be here?

That’s what we call a flat high and it’s perfect but storm too far away.

Plus it’s not a forecast anyway, just another 6 hour example of a possible outcome.

Not worried about track west of DC with a 1030 to wnw and 1030 to ne. Would love to see that ne high be 100-150 miles further west come game time.

Cold air departing and low right on coast too warm. If high can’t do any better then need low further east. That’s a rare request

Colder over Boston than Pittsburg and that’s often bad angle of cold

I think we’ve seen just about all the possibilities so will be time to replay all the possible outcomes thru Friday. The cold high will again be the determinant and we need about 30.20+ to keep the low from moving due north . 30.00 at game time won’t do it.

I was way off on last nights low temps and would be odd if they do it tonight but I think we will level off too soon .

18F at 10:40 Running cold I know but still 60% snowpack and full shade all day just makes cold. 28 for a high but 25 or lower from 1:30 backward and then 25 or sub from 5:30pm to current. Solid cold on a sunny and not much wind day.

Patterning right now is that to the west isn’t happening because cold highs are where they need to be. Yesterday it was a Carolina blizzard and DC zip, now maybe a mixed mess or to the west with rain and 45. This is yet another clear example of present all the outcomes and then claim correctness no matter what happens. Models dont forecast what is The Most Likely outcome. They present examples of what could happen, many and varied. Acceptance of this will decrease angst for those who seek decreased anxiety. Others are perfectly happy with the myriads of wholesale changes every 6 hours and all the varying outcome potentials thereof. The current method provides the best circumstance for confirmation of a verified forecast for continued funding but it doesn’t provide the best possible weather resource information consistently. Gotta be a high powered computer somewhere which can process analog and prevailing pattern info to derive forecasts from. I think much less waffling would come from that. Right now though there is too much resistance to making a forecast and seeing how to stick with it rather than constantly changing.

The depictions are historic suppression looking and I dont see a strong enough high in the right place to do that

You are right. Winds might go calm at dawn and that would allow but winds keeping up 10+ won’t allow

Going to average 1.5F drop rate the rest of the way so that gets us to 15-17 for a DCA low, 16 my call

Still got 90% snow cover in shaded area and down here near creek so high today just 33.5 sticking with my call from several days ago for a low of 16 at DCA