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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    These are fairly significant trends in the ECMF MJO as it almost makes it into phase 8. At this point, the MJO is beginning to hint at a large scale pattern change and not just a window of opportunity. JUST using the ECMF MJO(there is another version ECMM which is slightly less bullish which uses climatology...ECMF is just the pure ensemble run I "think"). This actually has support from both the GEFS which is likely overly amped, but headed in the same direction. It also lends support to what John was saying earlier in the thread that once the MJO hits phase seven, it gets cold after that w a lag possibly built in. So, the signal for cold during week 4 of February is now a bit stronger IMHO. Let's see if it holds and trends even better. The GEFS has been sort of correct in the higher amplitude of 5, but seems out there with high amplitude 6/7. So, a mini-victory for the GEFS up to this point. Either way, both the ECMF and GEFS are heading towards better phases in about ten days or sooner. That is also supported by ensemble runs hinting at changes. Always good to be aware that sometimes modeling can jump the gun....but thought this was worth a share. If true, this would likely provide us with a potential window of more than just 2-3 days but counterweighted by climatology being less favorable by the day at that timeframe. Good news to see modeling hustling out of "bad" phases of the MJO.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS has a pretty strong signal now around 288 of a trough moving into the East. That is a new look. Let's see if it holds at 12z. Has a trough in Alaska as well. Looks like an ensemble with two camps: Alaska and the eastern US. The Eastern US camp was barely there yesterday at 12z. Again, my guess is that these troughs will have little staying power. My hope would be is that one scenario that ensembles are seeing is a direct discharge of the AK vortex into the eastern US. As, we saw with the last one, a deep trough with even marginally cold air can be really potent. BTW, I miscalculated the trough frequency yesterday. The last trough rolled through on the 7th. Next one appears to be the 14th. If one believes the global ensembles, next one is the 22nd. So, about every 7-8 days a shot of cold is modeled to arrive with the 14th trough being more like a post storm front. As noted above by other posters, the other global ensembles have a strong signal for a pattern relaxation during the last week of February. Can that help us? IDK, that is late in the game. However, it is getting to be shoulder season and this is a time of year where anything can happen, not excluding severe followed by winter. Wavelengths are changing up. If we manage to get a non-hostile MJO, changing wavelengths, an active storm pattern, and cold periodically into the East...that is not a bad combo. Obviously by the end of the month some are really fighting climatology and time of day then really matters. There is a history of late season storms from time to time in this area...so something to watch. If we want to get in the game truly, we want to see the EPS speed up its look.
  3. Carvers Gap
    AK vortex seems legit. However, seeing some signs of a trough going into the eastern US later this month. Need to really watch the MJO next few days. If it heads across the COD towards eight, might signal another trough. Jax has that noted above. Would be interesting to see a trough show up about the time the Alaska vortex gets dislodged. Most ensembles are hinting at a trough around the 24th in the East in addition to the 14th. Looks like a cold air intrusion about every ten days. At any right, mowed my yard today and started getting the garden ready. Went ahead and worked on one of our chimneys today that had been showing some signs of leaking. Wasn't planning on that, but sometimes things show up unexpectedly. I mowed the yard, because I had to take the mower out to get the ladder for the roof. LOL. Figured if I had it out, might as well just mow.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Just sifting through some of the MJO plots on the CPC site, one trend I notice...most of those MJO members end up with trajectories pointing at cold phases. Something to watch. I wonder if the GFS and CMC have caught that trend early and are maybe ahead of the game a bit. Will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro will eventually break down the eastern ridge like it did at 0z. Would be nice to have only 100 hours of a SER vs 10 days. Seems to me that the Southwest eternal cut-off may well be a partial error. If so, makes sense for the trough to get kicked eastward periodically with a western ridge popping from time to time as it has to fight a potentially low amplitude MJO.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I am hoping that changing wavelengths will spare us further events like that. Looks like we may well have one more rainy system this week though. This weather pattern probably is a wild one. Flood warnings and WWAs existing at the same time in the same region is an active pattern. LOL. Good call on the weekend snow, BTW.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Not exactly high amplitude, eh? What is weird the GFS and CMC at 12z(and for many runs prior) appear to show a pattern that has less influence by the MJO as evidenced by the SER be less strong and cold fronts showing some ability to push eastward beginning around hour 120. And then where is the MJO headed....trajectory is towards cold phases? I have said for a week or so that this pattern after the 10th had not looked modeled correctly. That cold front on the 14th makes me even more suspicious. It is almost like the November cold pattern is battling the MJO. However, the weaker that MJO gets...the stronger the November pattern gets. Finally, I think the changing wavelengths are currently giving models fits and about to get worse. Not saying this is the case this time around, but when wavelengths change...storms seems to be embedded in those changes.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Will wait for the ECMF MJO to update as well and then add some further comments. It either needs to be at low amplitude or hustling out of 5/6 into 7 or COD. Right now, we will take the COD. And to further illustrate that the MJO is a great tool and is driving the NA pattern, but it can have its hiccups...Chattanooga just received 3-4" of snow during phase 5 of the MJO at low amplitude.
  8. Carvers Gap
    It is the EPS vs all comers this morning including its own operational. The operational finally has the cold front on the 14th. Want to see just how bad the Euro bias is in the Southwest. Go to Tropical Tidbits and select hour 120 from the 0z Euro op run this am. Then, select the 500 heights anomaly and North America view. Then, click previous runs. Goes from a trough stuck in the West to a cold front in the East w/ twenty to forty degree BN departures at times over the TN and Ohio River valleys instead of a massive SER. Still looks like a cutter that precedes that cold, but as we saw this week a trough with cold air during this active pattern can produce. Right now looks bone dry after it rolls through, but who knows. And let's be clear, it is not just the Euro that had the problem with the SW trough, the GFS had it as well but corrected quicker. For sure, the MJO is lousy...but February is a month where pretty much everything has to be watched if cold manages to get into the pattern - especially with this really active pattern in terms of precip. BTW, I take the EPS against all comers....but it is worthy of note that the 0z Euro, 6z GFS, and 0z CMC don't seem to be huge fans of the SER through 240. I feel like a broken record, but I think modeling has been fooling around with that Southwest cut-off and the actual outcome is different than a cut-off sitting there for 16 days(some hyperbole intended) and just spinning. I think what we will see is what we saw this past week. We see warmth build, but a trough manages to make it eastward. Might even see 2-3 more of those before the month ends, beginning with the time frame of the 14th.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Been up on the Plateau for a couple of days and am home now finally. Rolled through right after the snow finished up - beautiful sight. Haven't been able really dig into modeling much. With two advisory level events for the window of Feb 5-10, bout all we could have asked for in a base warm pattern. Very happy for our folks who have received snow this week. Still a lot of uncertainty moving forward with Feb 14th having a cool or cold front. Will continue to monitor the 14th timeframe for an outside chance. Again, still not convinced modeling has the upcoming pattern nailed down. Will try to post tomorrow. But what a fun day following all of those posts by many who have waited patiently for snow for several years.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Way overdue for the SE areas of the forum. Enjoy seeing the pics. Keep them coming!
  11. Carvers Gap
    Some very heavy radar returns on the west side of this system!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Awesome score!!!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Radar looks healthy!
  14. Carvers Gap
    Have to say...heckuva storm thread name.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Cause you know I am going to be driving the family van down from the Plateau tomorrow around 18z...so we know this is going to verify. LOL.
  16. Carvers Gap
    One last thing in the LR and I will try to keep from cluttering the thread with LR posts since we have something tomorrow to track tomorrow, @holston the GFS has an Aleutian pattern that has low after low in that area....just one right after another. Also, definitely fun tracking stuff that pops back up in the short range.
  17. Carvers Gap
    When is that moving in tomorrow? Would be awesome for the SE TN folks to finally have something to track. Been truly rough sledding there.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I had quit watching that system closely because it had weakened so much. There are some decent lollipops on those maps. Those little systems are fun to track. .
  19. Carvers Gap
    Good call, 3K NAM looks decent in those areas.
  20. Carvers Gap
    But I think we can say this...very active precip pattern with potential for cold fronts during the 10th-20th which is far better than I expected earlier in the week.
  21. Carvers Gap
    So, the CMC and GFS at 12z have a similar setup: big highs that are pressing south and east and a gradient type storm late next week. IMHO, gradient storms can be super difficult to find where the snow line sets-up. Some years, those gradient storms are further south than depicted. Have seen several I though twould hammer MBY in years past, and they went to the GC. Seems this year they might verify north of modeling at this range due to modeling cold bias. So, we want to see that trend southward and then come back IMHO. But again, tricky to work out.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I understood and agree.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the Euro buried the current trough in the Southwest on one or two runs and never ejected it. In reality...it did dig, but it came on out. These runs where they dig, sit/spin, and dig a western trough are a bit suspicious. Again, the MJO does call for a SER and troughing in the West. Originally, we thought this would be a more progressive pattern with the cold pressing East at times. It may be that we are just in a base warm pattern where the cold presses at times vs a total shut-out pattern. Not sure.
  24. Carvers Gap
    CMC has a similar set-up at 12z around 156 with a similarly strong high. I think what is happening is that as we get closer to verification those cutoff lows are not just sitting there and digging...they are kicking out. Might be that we are going to have to watch for that. Now, the trough should dig into the West given the MJO...but right now I am suspicious of any low just spinning in the Southwest.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Definitely something afoot... Thing is the GFS and CMC may have potentially sniffed out a cold front around the 14th that the Euro missed and a cool front around the 12th. . After that, who knows...I think there is a really tendency for models to bury these cutoff and it is screwing up the run at that point. My guess is those cut offs either move east or get completely cut-off under a ridge. I am wondering if the changing wavelengths(as we approach spring) are causing havoc as well? But what looked like a really warm period between the 10th and 20th may at least have some things of passing interest. But again, sometimes those cutoffs are legit. But to me, looks like way too many cut-offs and that is likely feedback. OTH, keep sticking cut-offs in the Southwest and they are going to eventually head eastward.
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