Carvers Gap

18z GFS advertising sharp cold front swing through Friday. Jeff mentioned this in his earlier discussion. GFS has temps in the upper 30s in middle TN by Saturday AM - we'll see if that is right. 40s seem more likely. Still...look at the temps in from and behind this boundary. Pretty impressive. I just grabbed the front as it approaches Nashville. Later in the run, temps are in the upper 30s in middle TN while temps in NE TN are in the low 60s.

I have a legit chance of getting very little to nothing from this, not looking like anywhere near the half inch plus amounts advertised by local offices. I don't blame weather forecast offices though. Today is a great example of how things can easily go wrong, and why this region is so tough to get right. What a lot of folks used to see as the "Bubble" in Kingsport is just downsloping that can occur from three different directions. Now, the Bubble is the real deal on marginal snow events, and all of us up here know how that comes to pass - local joke, but I can just about guarantee that everyone in Kingsport know exactly what I am talking about. But today is a great example of how a forecast can bust for this area. Our forecast high was 72...we hit 79 which I think is tops for all of E TN. The front hung up and the sun came out for longer than expected I think. North of 81 and west of 26 pretty much didn't receive any rainfall. We dealt with downloading winds off the Smokies for much of the day. When the winds did shift the precip line failed to reform until almost right over downtown Kingsport, and even still...not much. I think a combination of the left over ridge, the ongoing drought, and downsloping were likely issues. Also, I was reminded by a friend to beware of rainy fronts(of the entry angle seen today) as they rarely verify well here. In NE TN, we normally need some type of wave running a boundary, a frontal boundary that drapes over the area, or sometimes a quicker front works. Another thing that really messes up the conveyor up here is convection to our south - don't think that happened either. But today does go to show just how many ways precip can dissipate. If this had been a winter event, we would have gotten blanked. We average less rainfall up here, and today is likely a great example of why. Thankfully temps have been much more tolerable. Valley temps are 15-20 degrees cooler than last week with SW VA maybe pushing 20-25 degrees cooler.

I don't like see bands that are split in that manner. They have a habit of missing portions of NE TN as they slide up...agree.

Got the shaft on rain this afternoon. Fairly robust line of rain developed over town and head east. West Kingsport and northwest Hawkins Co only received at best .01-.02. That one hurt. I could see the heavy rain from my neighborhood. Not overly confident in the next line, but it will have to do as that is it. Might be able to squeeze out a tenth or two at best. Right now sitting at .01" for the current system.

I will say that while a warmish December would not surprise me...I also would not be surprised for a lot of clouds and rains. I am a little nervous calling for rain during December as E TN droughts have a tendency to self-perpetuate(look at the rain bands falling apart today) sometimes without a ton of warning. IMBY, a lot of times the reason that Nino Decembers are warm is that nighttime temps are AN with daytime temps only slightly above. I will say that the SER will be an absolute bear if it doesn't rain IMHO...OTH super dry air over E TN does sometimes make cold air masses worse as the nighttime lows go really low with not humidity. I have not bitten not he typhoon recurve yet. I suspect that may be part of the back-and-forth in the LR with ridge/trough placement. Those recurving typhoons can make a mess out of modeling until they get resolved in modeling (which might be happening already). I read somewhere on Twitter(saw it on Twitter so it must be true, right!) that sometimes recruiting typhoons can actually pump the trough in the GOA and force a downstream ridge over eastern NA. Now, I am no fan of early season typhoons unleashing the Arctic hounds. That has happened twice in the last ten years that I can think of and it took forever for NA to reload the cold pattern as the cold was "spent" too early. The following two winters I think were warm early on, maybe the entire winter. I am willing to bide my time with slightly AN temps for the next 8-10 weeks until we can get a delivery mechanism which is able deliver the coldest air during winter and not fall. Yep. Saw that the ridge is showing some signs of returning on the EPS mean and also on the GEFS mean, though the 6z GEFS run was less enthused. Seems like then 6z CFS(the one that runs through mid Nov) was cold for November, but everyone knows I don't trust the CFS. OTH, the CFSv2 seasonal through January is exactly opposite of my winter ideas. LOL. Definitely interested to see what the MJO does. If it gets into phases 2 and 3 I think that favors more of a trough over the eastern US. But I completely understand betting the ridge as it has the "hot hand." (bad joke Monday)

Yeah, how could I forget the downslope! LOL. Winds have indeed been out of the SE this morning.

TRI's temps have raced upward in the absence of rain along with being stuck for a prolonged amount of time on the east side of a precip band. Happens often during winter. Precip stalls. Sun comes out. Temps bust high. How many snowstorms have fizzled with that exact scenario? A bunch. Forecast for today was 72 and were are already at 76...the highest temp in E TN I think for the second straight day. Either way, much better than last week! I went ahead and watered my garden...that should ensure heavy rainfall for MBY today. Water bill...I am afraid to look. My fall garden has only seen .1" of rain since August 28th - 40 days of being hooked up to the city water IV. Looks like precip will be moving-in around 1:00-2:00 PM if MRX is correct which I think they are...May have to wait for Friday-Sunday for our next legit chances at adequate precip after today.

The drought is a problem right now for much of E TN. I thought the last drought monitor update was woefully underdone for Sullivan County. It is bone dry for my end of the county. These systems just lose steam as they crash into a very dry air mass at the surface. Going to take several rounds of precip to knock that down. But right now anything will help. If we can get .25-.30" of rain during the next 24 hours, it will at least help with what could easily become a growing fire season threat. Our temps here are like living in the dessert. With little humidity, temps can change quickly with or without sun depending. We have sun in Kingsport and that in turn has allowed for forecast high temps to be already reached. Happened yesterday as well. Rain should cap those temps when it moves in. LR, it will be interesting to see what happens. This long lasting -NAO has teleconnected very well to the heat this summer and fall. At some point if it keeps up, that will teleconnect to cold temps in the East. My gut says if flips positive for most of this winter. Problem is that it is one of the hardest features IMHO to actually predict with accuracy past two weeks. Also LR, I tend to favor a more progressive pattern through October and November with periods of ridges and troughs without either locking in for long periods of time - maybe weighted something like 40% trough and 60% ridge. If the eastern ridge does re-develop, wouldn't be surprised to see Nino climo undercut that ridge....still the change in wavelengths is our friend right now. The MJO is finally showing some signs of leaving phase one and at least peaking at phase 2 for both the CFS and ECMWF. Once we enter the winter season and the pattern stabilizes, we will know where that ridge sets ups shop. My June forecast for winter has a trough penciled in for the West with the trough eventually moving to the East by Jan/Feb which fits Nino climatology. The item that makes the forecast tough is that the ENSO regions closest to South America my well be more like a La Nina and that can present problems with a Southeast Ridge when present.

I put my garlic and shallots into one of my raised beds yesterday. Figured the upcoming seasonal to AN(but not extreme) wx will get them off to a good start before the first inevitable freeze hits at some point during the next few weeks. My garlic is definitely a testament to @Stovepipe's sharing about his garlic harvest a few years back. This is my second year growing. I had never attempted it prior to reading his post. Shallots are a new venture.(probably tried some during the wrong time of year several years ago) Some folks call them multiplier or potato onions, because one bulb will produce many over the winter and early spring. I am still shocked that my "cool weather" crops have done so well given the record temps of the last few weeks. The only thing that just came up and was like, "Nope..." was spinach. Everything else has done very well considering the temps and drought. I think it is due to an odd, but useful setup in my garden in relation to sun angle. During the summer, the angle of the sun provides direct sunlight all summer. However, during the fall, it drops just enough into the southwest that the tops of some tall trees shade the garden in the afternoon. Anyway, if you all garden...this is perfect time to plant garlic. Just let it sit all winter, grow during the spring, and harvest as the tops brown and fall over next summer. Filaree Farms has a great site for pretty much all root crops, but especially for garlic. They have a growing guide as well.

Clouds have moved in and the much anticipated cool-down is at hand. 71 outside and feels awesome. Now, bring on the rain. We have had one tenth of an inch of rain during the past 39 days. To me, that is as spectacular as the temps.

Time will tell I guess in regards to winter. I still like my post from June regarding winter...I might change, but they still look reasonable. West gets winter early and East gets it for January and February. Definitely agree that October and September are normally poor indicators for winter...actually summers are also poor indicators of winter unless there is an ongoing drought. November can be a great indicator, but last year was definitely not. I do actually think -AOs during winter are fairly good for this area but have to be combined with some sort of forcing mechanism or the cold dumps West. Some sort of PNA/EPO ridge has generally led to some severe cold outbreaks during the past several winters with the -NAO being absent - just depends on whether there is a SER as to whether the cold dumps and holds mid-continent or rolls eastward. I didn't have access to Euro seasonal until today just before this post...of note, last winter that tool wast truly awful. This winter I have generally made a pact with myself not to give much credence to LR models past four weeks other than just to give them a passing glance as last winter they verified nearly opposite of actual weather. The Euro products are frustrating because they rarely forecast cold...not sure why that is. They have basically busted on the cold temps in the West, and they potentially may miss the Eastern trough that is forecast to develop next weekend. That said, the Euro products seem to do a better job with the 500 pattern which is good enough for me. I just filter out the AN temps under an eastern trough and know it will be seasonal to below. Indeed, the Euro seasonal does park the trough mid-continent with a lean West for DJ and then trough-ish Feb - weak Nino climo. Do I buy that this early? No. After last winter, just tough to trust any model past about three weeks. Regarding October as a benchmark, the one way one could use October to forecast December is if one can extrapolate out a pattern and know when a pattern will end. For example, if a trough does set-up shop in the East for mid-October and into part of November, one can probably guess that the much of December will likely be warm as that pattern breaks down and the SE ridge returns. Then, one might guess that the December SER pattern would break down by mid-January using the 4-6 week run for pattern cycles. That actually does fit the Euro seasonal 500 pattern, but not fall forecast. But right now, until the pattern actually re-establishes after this burst of shorter wavelengths...just tough to know much. The past few winters have not played nicely...and I expect this one to be similar. I am really neither encouraged or discouraged at this point, just glad the extreme heat is leaving and likely to stay gone regarding long stretches of 90s IMBY. I do realize that SE, middle, and west TN may have to battle the 90s a few more times. I don't ever expect much in terms of winter for October or November during any year, so no real disappointment there....just get me back close to average. Leaves...definitely a stall after some changes in August prior to these record high temps. I suspect they really get moving over the next two weeks. Probably will be a quick peak at higher elevations as fall storms will knock those leaves off quickly once they change. Looking like a Halloween peak here at TRI with oaks holding onto their leaves well into November and December. I have noticed that oaks have a real tendency to hold onto their leaves due to fall warm temps. Maples drop their leaves pretty quickly no matter what. So yeah, probably not a great year for leaves due to the ongoing drought and the extreme heat...It is possible that the extreme heat has slowed the leaves from turning and thus the cooler weather and rain will actually make for a decent change at lower elevations...just tough to tell. Definitely will be some consequence form the extreme heat. Glad it is gone. I suspect that the records set in October will be ones that might not be broken(in large numbers like this year) for many years to come thankfully. Severe heat is getting ready to hit the rearview mirror, but afraid I am going to have to sit through some bad football for a few more months. What a great September combo...high temps and bad football. At least one is likely gone. Whew! Long post...going to enjoy some TV for the rest of the day and tomorrow. Hopefully on Monday the LR hasn't gone to crap! LOL.

Plenty of conflicting signals for sure. Timing is so important to winter forecasts in terms of trough placement and whether or not cold air is available to fill the trough. Then if one wants snow, need storms included in the cold pattern with preferably no drought. If I had to list the things that I don't want to see show-up for winter they would probably be a drought and a positive AO. I don't like a positive NAO, but as John has noted, the NAO is less important if the AO can go strongly negative. Now, if we could get both to go negative, awesome. However, I think as you had noted earlier in the fall, that NAO has been negative a long time and is likely to flip positive at some point. So, a +PNA/-AO combo is probably our ticket and just tough to know if those will be in place DJF...but we do need to get out of this drought for two reasons. First, multiple rainfall chances during fall will likely equal multiple winter chances(assuming the pattern continues) if we can get cold air in place. Second, a severe drought might very well be a magnet for the SER.

18z GFS is some wildness....

Yeah, plenty of uncertainty for sure. I am not convinced that SER comes back(as a permanent feature) during the second half of October for more than a few days at a time (if that), but it has been a stubborn feature. When in doubt, bet the streak. With the MJO going into the COD, the ridge that was locked into the East might not actually stay. The GEFS and EPS and Euro Weeklies and the morning run of the the seasonal CFS(off the top of my head...check that) now show a stout ridge in the West w a decent Eastern trough during days 10-15. That has fooled many before including me, so need to see that inside of d10 before giving it credence - but some models actually have the reversal at days 8-9 now. What I am seeing certainly looks like a complete pattern flip over North America by weeks 3 or 4 of October....but just too far out to really "buy in" yet. I think the possibility of the ridge coming back is certainly on the table as it has been there for like ten months pretty consistently. However, I think maybe a more likely possibility is the the ridge might actually be gone for several weeks or more. Next couple of weeks will feature shorter wave lengths which will allow sharp warm-ups and sharp cold shots. I am starting to lean towards a trough establishing itself in the East...but the pattern has been for models to show this in the LR and then go right back to a SER in terms of actual verification. I actually like seeing that MJO go into the COD and seeing the daily SOI crash along with a falling QBO. So, if we actually have a weak El Nino...we could see a cool-ish November(a key indicator for John...and a good one) with maybe a pattern relaxation in December and back to cool wx for Jan/Feb. Right now my frame of reference is out of whack because "cool temps" are relative to this 90s stuff and even slightly AN seems to feel way better. I mean we set a record high up here today and the wx felt much better. LOL. Overall, I think we have several more warm days during the next ten days along with several seasonal or even BN days...but I think the possibility for a true pattern change is a much more realistic notion than say maybe a week ago. Honestly, I think we may see some pretty cold air masses moving in by the end of the month...but just a hunch. Would be pretty wild to have mid 90s to start the month for highs and mid 40s near the end of the month...probably more like mid 50s. Still, what a range.

TRI has officially tied the record high for today, October 4th. We are at 87 and went past the forecasted high. I suspected that might be a concern. Modeling had shown the front taking its time getting through NE TN. That along with very dry ground has likely allowed for temps to race beyond expected temps. Seven degrees cooler than yesterday, but a low hanging fruit record high...albeit from 1954. Shew. That should be the last of those posts for some time...Breeze is kicking up now. Might very well have been a downslope component this afternoon with winds out of the east. Relief is coming, but this pattern got in one more body blow today in NE TN.

The 12z CMC and GFS are not warm in the medium and LR...and that is not just d10-15 talk. Looks like a second front will come through next weekend and then a third after d10 if the GFS is to be believed...always a big "if." First frost is hinted at on both with even some fantasy flurries late in the run...though I would not be surprised if the models continue trending. Again, let's see if these trends hold...we have seen this before. So, I am just going to enjoy the purple and the blues of the anomaly parameters for now.

During the last ten years, we have seen two October snowstorms which mostly hit the mountains, but one had measurable snow on the ground in the Upstate of South Carolina! The winters that followed were total duds. We have seen a forest fire burn much of the area on both sides of Gatlinburg. And now we have seen record heat. As Windspeed noted above, we have been absolutely crushing record highs. And what is crazy, I would be a little surprised if this fall doesn't hold some more extremes...just has the feel for a pattern that is about to have some wild swings. As a kid I remember running around on Halloween in a t-shirt and burning up....and I remember running around in a heavy coat. But I want not more, ever again, of what this heat wave just did...no mas!

QBO has fallen to 8.25...if its pattern holds from previous drops, it likely drops fairly quickly at some point between now and winter. Glad to see it is still falling.

Another stellar run of both the 12z EPS and GEFS. Makes me nervous when those two are in sync, especially this far out. EPS(and GEFS) is showing more signs of a stable eastern trough in the d10-15....which actually teleconnects very well with 4 lobes of warm and 4 lobes of cold in the northern hemisphere. What is that called again? @Coach B I am ready to fire-up the wood stove.

Chattanooga is now the new king of hot. Wear your title proudly!

What is interesting in modeling is blocking up top, especially over the Hudson Bay, and a trough intermittently showing up east of Hawaii. The ridge that is portrayed sometimes over the HB is tricky. Sometimes it slides eastward and hooks up with the ridge over Greenland - not good for cold temps. However, sometimes it remains separate on some runs which is why I think there is so much dancing around by modeling. And sometimes that ridge sets up over the GL area which is not good either. Trends to watch and not a forecast. Just kicking around ideas.

6z GEFS and 0z EPS again look really decent. I did dare to peak at the CFS Monthly/Seasonal this morning and it is singing a similar tune. I am definitely gun shy as modeling across the board has signaled these changes before and totally whiffed. I also looked at the MJO and some modeling is showing it weakening into the COD. So, maybe there is something to this. I would be surprised if that ridge doesn't come back one last time, but trends right now are away from a ridge long term. Now, I am not calling for any winter like temps or anything like that, but....considering that we have been in the 90s for like forever, temps will feel much cooler even if average. So, some good signs this AM with the main emphasis being that whatever ridge pops back up...cold fronts build in the northern front range of the Rockies and barrel SE. No matter what comes after, really looking forward to next week. I am definitely aware of extracurricular HS activities that have had to be rescheduled due to the heat. So, for those folks out there practicing in this...relief should be welcome next week!

Impressive. Tomorrow will likely be worse and may set an all-time record for October that will not fall in our lifetimes and maybe not for another generation. The past couple of weeks is to heat what Jan 1985 was to cold. What is crazy is that Friday will be much cooler(by like ten degrees) than Thursday and still be within a couple of degrees of the record high for that day. Looks like next week should be awesome. Going to be 20-25 degrees cooler than tomorrow, maybe more. Shew, glad to see extended summer begin to ebb. Hoping that run of the 12z EPS holds. The 18z GEFS looked quite similar. Big trough just east of HI that should pop a -EPO. Fingers crossed.

Really nice run of the 12z EPS today as it keeps the ridge out of our area beginning Monday. Tries to establish and then gets beat down...pops back up in the nation's midsection. Cool down for NE TN beginning Friday(southern areas and mid-state see some rebound Sat and Sun of temps)...all areas with a nice cool down(in some cases the 24 hour temp change will be 25ish degrees) by Monday evening if things hold as is.

Some fairly chilly mid-day model runs by the 12z GFS and CMC with two fronts driving south next week. I did mention a bonus in banter...