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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z suite looks pretty good so far for E TN...especially the foothills, Plateau, SW VA, and portions of NE TN. That said, many of the models(global and short range) have upped their totals slightly. Never want the trend to be going down at this range. Not sure what is causing the system to max out over E TN, but several models depict a pretty decent precip max over the eastern valley with this. The questions is whether the cold is going to move as quickly as modeled. The big 1050+ high argues for that. However, as I stated above...the Plateau can do strange things with systems like this. It may give some good orographic lift or it may hold up the cold. Either way, still an interesting early season system on tap. I would not be surprised if some valley locations received and inch or two of snow. Seems weird to state that as climatology really frowns upon snow this early...but it can happen and that high is no joke.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Good to see you on here again. These Arctic fronts as they interact with the Plateau add a certain degree of difficulty. Often, the cold takes it time draining in from the Plateau...but sometimes it does not. The big high out West has me with one eye over my shoulder. Either way, tracking in early November is all bonus!
  3. Carvers Gap
    TRI's record low on the 13th is 19F. Right now the forecast low is around 16F. So, a chance to break the record low on Wednesday morning.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for compiling those. Just an impressively cold start to November. Unless something crazy happens, even with moderation later in the month (not a given) looks like November will likely finish BN or even well BN. @Blue Ridge, with snow predicted on Tuesday...1954 rides again!!!! Just amazing how close this fall has been to '54. I joke about it, but it is becoming a bit uncanny.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Love it...Even if it doesn't work out, a winter thread in November is always a bonus! Hey, if we can get a winter thread in April early next spring...that would give us six months of tracking! My expectations are low on this one. I just want to see some snow showers. Any accumulation is a total bonus this early, but I do like looking at snow accumulation maps though! I may have to put in The Day After Tomorrow to get me fired up!!! I like that movie, not going to lie. My other favorite weather movies are Twister, 2012(more geology), and pretty much any Christmas movie with snow in it. Christmas Vacation and Home Alone are pretty much awesome. Yeah, I am a weather geek and I just can't help it. In for later! Good luck to everyone on getting some early season snow. Have to think folks about 2,000' are sitting pretty good on this one.
  6. Carvers Gap
    TRI is a whopping -7F below normal for the first nine days of November. November's start is nearly a polar(like that?LOL) opposite of October's. I mean I still leave the house without a coat, because I still assume it is gonna be 90+ during the day. Pretty sure this is the earliest that I have not had to mow...but just mow it now to knock down the tops of a few fast growing patches of grass and to pick up leaves. The heat pretty much wiped out my yard...then the cold went off the top rope and ended its meager hopes of returning to form.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Great read, griteater. Enjoyed it. Thank you for taking the time to write that up.
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z RGEM is a good thump and still snowing. So is the GFS and the NAM is not bad either at 12z.
  9. Carvers Gap
    That a 4" snow mean over NE TN on the EPS for the early week event?
  10. Carvers Gap
    Weather modeling has backed off significantly to a non-event for the Thursday system. Probably not a great sign! That said, weather models are notorious for losing events around the seven day range (for a few model suites). Time will tell. At seven days, I didn't have much invested...plus it is early November. Pretty cool to see alway. Looks like LR modeling is coming into better agreement. Both the 0z GEFS and EPS show some moderation in temps by late next weekend. Then 500 heights fall again under that ridge, and the trough develops. Right now, just looks the trough is doing to set up shop in the East. I hope that continues into December or at least that pattern shows up during winter at some point. The current pattern(if found in mid-January) would have been money. Eight days into the month, TRI is -6.4 which is an impressive departure considering that October was +5.4 and September was a whopping +7.3. The ball game last night had temps which were at or below freezing for most of the second half. I am going to have to dig deep in order to find one where I felt that cold for most of a HS game in early November. Deep into the playoffs...they can be bitterly cold. Plus, I don't think many have acclimated to the colder pattern at this point. My family still heads out the door without coats on...only to have to hustle back inside in order to grab a jacket.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Maybe someone can gif that run, but when you hear me talk about a perfect track...that is it. Only problem, 5-7 days out...but that storm just crawls from Thursday to Sunday. Snowing in Memphis on Thursday and does not exit NE TN until Sunday morning. Marginal cold air to work with, but I will take the northwest quadrant of a strengthening slp ten out of ten times. Euro still has room to come West or it could be to wound-up. Fun run. edit: NE TN still gets more after this pic.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Maybe someone can gif that run, but when you hear me talk about a perfect track...that is it. Only problem, 5-7 days out...but that storm just crawls from Thursday to Saturday. Snowing in Memphis on Thursday and does not exit NE TN until Sunday morning. Marginal cold air to work with, but I will take the northwest quadrant of a strengthens slp ten out of ten times. Euro still has room to come West or it could be to wound-up. Fun run.
  13. Carvers Gap
    That run is pretty much near perfection. Nearly a foot in middle TN at 192.
  14. Carvers Gap
    At 180, northern middle and the Plateau are getting scraped.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is an interesting run for sure. Memphis gets ~3". Storm takes so long to get its act together that much of it falls as rain in E TN...but not all of it is rain. Downsloping and scouring of temps occurs due to it crawling along the Gulf Coast. Perfect track for E TN if we can get any cold of cold to hold OR if it gets stronger. Much more wrapped up this run than last.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro @150...
  17. Carvers Gap
    Is the weenie reaction emoji new(button you click to like a post)? Maybe I have just missed it. That should be fun. LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Agree that colors pretty much changed in unison...a true testament to the duration and strength of the warm anomalies and then accompanied by a quick switch to seasonal and then below. I don't think it was much cooler at elevation. That said, our leaf change up here was super quick for maples, locusts, sweet gum, sycamore. The oaks are basically are way behind. So, it is almost like a two tier change here, and it sort of has been lately anyway. The rain and wind knocked the leaves down from the trees that had just changed...and left the oaks in tact. Also agree that fall actually turned out to be quite nice at lower elevations from a color standpoint. The wet spring helped, and I do think the recent rains helped. And rainy days IMHO are great days to photograph the leaf change. The colors are just richer. Today is beautiful. Temps are chilly. The wind chimes are singing. Going to be super cold tonight - compared to what we have been used to. I think our band is changing-up its routine as playing when it is below freezing is super tough on the instruments...especially the competition stuff. These HS band don't have the budgets of those northern marching bands who can make sure that they have good, cold weather instruments ...and instruments for the rains. A good example, is that one needs a plastic clarinet for the rain and wood for concert. The brass(while being played and warm air is in the instruments) also sweats similarly to a Coke bottle that has just come out of the fridge. . It has been a great marching season. Lots of great stories. The national championships are this weekend in Indianapolis. Our kids are heading to the Rose Bowl parade instead, and will not make the trip to Indy(too expensive to do both trips). Was a tough decision since DB won't be able to defend its 3A national title(its first) from last season. However, what a great opportunity to go to Pasadena, and be in that parade. We are really blessed to have so many kids who play in our full band - 388. Just under 20% of the kids in the high school play in the band. Crazy! Plus, DB is in the playoffs this year after a rough couple of seasons. Glad to see them bounce back. They are such an easy team to pull for. In smaller towns in NE TN(and really most areas in the state) high school football is a great community event that brings everyone together. In smaller towns, we don't have changing school zones...so some of these kids are walking on playing fields as fourth and fifth generation athletes or band members.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Thursdays system next week is still interesting. 6z GFS and 12z Euro have it. Something to watch. The energy that was held back Tuesday is getting picked up as a GOM slp.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Some BIG difference between the GEFS and EPS/GEPS in the long range. GEFS quickly erodes the cold pattern by next Saturday. It has really moved up its flip to a more zonal/weak eastern ridge pattern. The EPS is stone cold through the end of its run with not even a hint of what the GEFS is cooking. Something to watch. I don't really trust either model right now. The GEFS is well...the GEFS. However, the EPS has been awful at seeing cold in the LR(which it sort of has now with the 500 pattern), but it is also has had issues with seeing pattern changes only to flip at the last moment. Something to watch in the LR. The GEFS has been showing this off/on for a couple of days. Pretty impressive differences showing up at d7. The EPS rolls a ridge through and the GEFS sticks the trough in the Southwest. Been a weird weak, so each model taking on the other's bias would fit right in. The EPS rebuilds the eastern trough and the GEFS builds in a wonky by not impossible pattern. Might be the GEFS is just ahead of things which it does sometimes.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Agree with watching the Thursday system. Also, the Euro Weeklies and the EPS look to hold the current pattern in place. TIFWIW, we know the Weeklies have been flipping around a lot. Last winter we all thought would be cold, especially the back half. After early December...went straight warm. So, I kind of think the atmosphere owes us one. LOL. The weather outside has been nasty this evening. Kind of reminds of the first Harry Potter movie when he is on the island, and Hagrid finds him on that dark and rainy night. Also, been putting out fires for the past couple of days. Great to see all of the discussion from everyone. You know when we put the Tennessee Valley forum together several years ago...that is kind of how we thought it might look. I know I post quite a bit...but my favorite days looking at the forum are when I see all of this great material to read - and I haven't posted at all. Means we are alive and well. I hope my legacy with this forum is not that I posted a bunch. I hope it is that WE built a great place to discuss weather that will carry on in some shape or form for many years. And ultimately, I hope we produce a few meteorologists because of the great discussion by all of us. The SE forum has produced a few.
  22. Carvers Gap
    And looking a little more closely at the 12z Euro, it has the wave on Tuesday in SE GA. It just lacked precip. So, just guessing the phase missed or was a weak phase. Honestly, that setup with no changes probably has more precip over the TN valley. So, really at seven days out....that is still fairly astounding agreement among many models for surface feature placements over just one small area of the globe.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 12z Euro held back its energy in the southern stream and buried it over west TX. Sometimes it is right with that, sometimes not. The northern stream energy did pop a coastal. The CMC had the wave continue out of SW Louisiana and continue up through the Piedmont. Pieces are there...timing on that run was not. GFS was too progressive. Euro held energy back. Both are biases. I would think there is a decent signal for an EC storm...may not help us here, but maybe for folks from West Virginia to inland NE. But who knows...that set up could yield an inland runner or just be sheered out with nothing. Interesting to see for sure.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Watching the 12z Euro roll right now...the 12z UKMET had a monster high rolling in from Canada with a sip over the TX Panhandle around the Tuesday/Weds timeframe of next week. Then the run ended. So, that is three models with some potential, but need one of the major global models on board(GFS or Euro). Still is interesting for sure. Big, cold highs our of Canada have been an ingredient in many big EC coastal storms. Just kicking things around, but interesting.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Typhoon Halong is probably factoring into East coast weather next week. BIG storm. As mentioned in the MA forum, that is the type of system that resets what would otherwise be a good pattern. Could be both a blessing(short term) and a curse type deal(long term w/ pattern reset and doing more damage than needed to the PV this earl).
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