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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Long Range Discussion: The CFSv2 today (both runs) is woefully out of sync w/ its MJO(goes into 8 if I remember correctly). The GFS and GEPS and Euro Weeklies show a PNA/EPO ridge building out West. I don't think this is a slam dunk as evidenced by the CFS today. However, until modeling settles on the MJO progression...we are going to see haywire solutions. Additionally, when modeling is behaving erratically....extremely cold air in the LR can cause that. Remember when modeling lost the cold, found it, kicked the can, and then it came gangbusters this week? I do. Similar look for mid January. I can't tell if winter is departing(unlikely) or reloading(likely) with any certainty....
  2. Carvers Gap
    The WC is now -22F. That is rarified air for me.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for posting this. If we can keep this from jogging north, this is the old school clipper that used to follow big storms. If real, it wouldn't surprise me to see amounts higher as the ground is frozen and the air mass would support mega ratios.
  4. Carvers Gap
    For posterity. Wind chills....
  5. Carvers Gap
    I was just over in JC. Low level snow squalls are pushing through.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 18z is an extreme look - right off the North Pole. We may be in a repeating pattern as Holston mentioned earlier. Not sure at this point.
  7. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS has the return to cold inside of 300hours. Massive PNA. It will change some I am sure at this range. It is just a good example of where this could go if that ridge pops. That gigantic banana high setup is money.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Blackouts lifted.... https://www.wjhl.com/news/local/brightridge-implements-15-minute-rolling-blackouts/
  9. Carvers Gap
    LOL....
  10. Carvers Gap
    Would not shock me. With that much warm air in the middle of winter....things could fire.
  11. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro has the clipper. I would prefer it a tad south of our location. It is running the KY/TN border might allow it to tick north out of our forum area as things get closer. Still, it is far more formidable than it was on modeling a few days/runs ago. Something to watch.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Dealying w/ some maps 300+ at the operational level, so proceed at your own risk. Source regions are an issue by the 5th, but likey that gets rectified quite quickly if that ridge continues to retrograde slightly westward. You can see the fairly big flip at 500mb. That is not split flow in the second image, but a stalled slp over the Four Corners. It could be real or feedback...both make sense. Either way, I do actually think split flow develops IF the pattern evolves like that.
  13. Carvers Gap
    And I think modeling doesn't know where the MJO is at times. Generally, and I haven't looked this season, you can just tell by looking at where convection is. I can tell that modeling is struggling w/ the MJO, because the plots are all over the place. Just looking, 12z modeling is wanting to quickly break down eastern ridging and retrograde those AN heights into the West. We will see if that holds. If so, that tells me the MJO is probably sneaking into low amplitude 8.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Ya'll, I love this type of weather, absolutely love it.
  15. Carvers Gap
    During January '85, the light went out in our well house, and we also had pipes freeze under our house. It seems like all we did was thaw things out and fix pipes.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Weeklies 46 day snow maps (ensemble and control)...Plenty of snow pack (even some which is erased by the thaw right after Christmas) should be present and allow for cold to funnel southeastward. You can kind of see the various storm tracks - very Nina-esque. The tracks are Plains-Midwest as primary for snow and Apps as a secondary.
  17. Carvers Gap
    And the weeklies last night had this for almost the same time frame 8th-15th. The Weeklies eventually remove the HB block altogether after this and then by the end of January begin to show a rebuilding of the -NAO...
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 flipped back to a colder east. Modeling is waffling a bit w/ the PNA ridge. The pattern is either, IMHO, going to retrograde that Hudson Bay block into a PNA ridge or leave it over the HB. I can't decide which I like better. HB blocks in the middle of winter do deliver the goods more often than not. IMHO, that HB block is going to retrograde into a PNA ridge, but if it doesn't that isn't a terrible look. Here is Jan 9-16th....
  19. Carvers Gap
    Wind chills across MRX...
  20. Carvers Gap
    It is at range but the 6z RGEM has a pretty healthy clipper for Tuesday. The NAM does as well, but it will amp everything at that range...so toss until in range. I trust the RGEM a little more at that range.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Honestly, I doubt we have another cold shot that is as cold relative to norms, but I don't have a crystal ball. My guess is opening shot to winter. The CFSv2 at 0z would end winter. I doubt it is right, and it doesn't have support from its own 24hour model suite(4 runs) and doesn't have support from the Euro Weeklies. If we are sitting in mid-January w/ the cold pattern still 14-16 days away....then we know. LOL. There is a possibility the MJO rotates back into 6 and stalls. My guess is that we get at least one more rotation through the cold phases. The Nina "should" weaken as winter progress, and that might help.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Great points. I am going to run the fireplace wood stove insert today, though! Yeah, the RGEM/ Canadian combo have been good so far this winter.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Digging a little deeper this AM, the MJO is handled quite differently by several models, and I think that situation is fluid - meaning the final result is not fixed understandably. I do expect model fluctuations. For example, the 0z CFSv2 is a complete reversal of its 18z self and keeps the ridge in the east. For now, I stick w/ the Euro weeklies (which are fallible at times) which do have a reasonable MJO projection. This morning, the GEFS MJO loops back into phase 6. Most other modeling either continues into low amplitude cold phases or COD. Again, the colder water where phase 8 would be is highly likely hampering the MJO progression. I have seen many comments about this being a Nino look. I definitely disagree. Cold in December, especially west of the Apps and not east near the coast, is a massive Nina signal. The real question going forward is whether this does an '89 and winter disappears. Or, and what is more likely IMO, does winter have several more punches to throw? The Canadian ensemble/operational, GFS operational, and Euro control support a quicker return to winter. I like the 10-11 analogs in addition to some stronger cold analogs(but toned down). I do think January and Feb might well run neutral to warm as a base phase, but w/ strong colder interludes similar to November. Edit: The cold analogs along w/ a base neutral/warm sound juxtaposed to each other. The cold analogs would be used to help identify cold shots. Many of our coldest winters had very warm interludes.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Both the GFS/CMC and some combination of their operationals/ensembles sped up the return of cold/seasonal temps. They returned to the original timeline of the 5th.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The clipper on the 27th looks like it is legit, especially for middle TN. It falls apart as it heads across the forum area which is not uncommon for a feature like that. In NE TN we need clippers on a NW flow vs East/west, especially if modeled as weak as this one is currently. Trend for many clippers is to lift north at the last minute. Many will drop more snow than middles as a little precip goes a long way.
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