Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Maybe the best I can do is heights over Alaska are AN. Overall, the continent is just cold regardless of the pattern. The MJO may well just make it less cold here. IDK. -
JB mentioned tonight(and I know he takes some heat at times), mentioned that the switch in ENSO is possibly causing contradictory signals in LR modeling. MJO plots are stalling in 3 which is cold in Feb(warm in Jan). Also, if I remember correctly, El Nino climatology favors a back loaded winter w/ a mean trough in the SE. I was expecting an all out torch on the Weeklies.
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I am not convinced that tonight's Euro Weeklies are correct....It looks to me like convection is about to fire around Indonesia if the CPC is correct. That should lead to the MJO warm tour mid-month, but the Weeklies are having none of it. They are basically BN for temps for the next 46 days. I will hold with the idea that a warm-up is coming mid-month. That seems about right, and fits with Indonesian convection. That said, there are some rare examples where it stays cold despite the MJO. I am thinking 94 or 96 (Jan-Feb) did that. I can't remember. If someone remembers, let me know. JB had a great post about this tonight.....
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All three deterministic models have a slider. The CMC is a bit more north and mainly west TN. The Euro and GFS have more of a west to east axis. Again....lots of plates for modeling to juggle. Survive and advance. That is all we can do.
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Euro had it at 12z. We are also talking the 105 hour....not day 7-8. But yeah, definitely don't share a foxhole w/ the GFS. We know how that turns out.
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Welp, I gott a run. I hate you cut-out mid-run....but that was slider city. Timing of precip, HP or no HP over the top, etc....TBD. I do like that the 18z GFS is similar to the Euro.
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At 165, this would result in a fairly significant winter storm for the Valley and looks somewhat similar to the 12z Euro.
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1t 156, yet another wave of precip attacks the cold boundary and results in a fairly extensive ice shield over much of middle and west TN.
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That is oh so close to a multi-day over-running event. And that isn't 7-8 days out. This begins around hour 105. Still TONS of uncertainty.
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By hour 111, most of middle and west TN are dealing w/ light wintry mix/snow/ice. It is also spread eastward, but mainly above I-40
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First wave of wintry precip on the 18z GFS is at hour 105 and incoming for Memphis, northern MS, and eastern Arkansas.
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Different time frames by just a few hours as both models(12z GFS and Euro) accentuate different waves. 12z is on the left and 0z is on the right.
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12z Euro has a similar slider to the 12z GFS north of I-40. Definite suppression trend across all deterministic modeling for the first 2-3 days of Feb.
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Looks like the 12z GFS is quicker w/ precip and gets out ahead of HP whereas the 12z CMC has precip sliding along slightly behind HP. That high placement and precip timing makes for very different solutions. For now, we take the GFS. There is some concern on my part that cold air might get trapped in the eastern valley (especially north of I-40) if this rolls in at night. The CMC looks to have a little bit of feedback over Louisiana in holding back energy, but that isn't totally different than the 0z Euro.,
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Pick your poison, the 12z suite has a buffet of options so far. Big ol' slop fest on modeling. Interesting to see modeling seeing a stronger and/or more southerly HP. That is an interesting trend. Placement of all features is still up for grabs.
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These are not bad trends at all..........more later. But man, models are all over the place. LOL. Trend is pretty extensive suppression...to the point some of that energy just sits there and comes back as a WAA event on the CMC.
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The 12z CMC is also VERY suppressed. Modeling is "seeing" a stronger HP over the top which means colder I would guess...though I have not looked at the surface. CMC might be a mid-South special.
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The 12z GFS might put snow into coastal South Carolina...that suppressed. And honestly, that is where we want that model right now. That gives it room to come back north. I wouldn't be shocked that later runs move to a Miller A. That was close....if real.
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The 12z GFS has a light snow event....and then is very suppressed...very.
