Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The 12z Canadian has an upslope event around d10. Way out there, but good to see modeling seeing something w/ that cold shot. -
The 12z GFS has a mid-south slider around d10 FWIW. That is going to change likely, but worth noting. That is the 18th timeframe that we have had circled as well...no cutter this run. edit: sorry. cutter 17th and then slider right after.
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Euro was slight jog to the east. CMC was a slight jog west. GFS was an ever so slight jog west. They may be converging on a storm track. We will see. The 12z GEPS has a decent snow mean over TRI...4-5".
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A little off topic, but @Holston_River_Ramblerthe woodpeckers in CA new that a hard winter was inbound... https://heraldcourier.com/news/national/woodpeckers-hoard-over-700-pounds-of-acorns-in-vacation-rental-home/article_56c015b4-d914-5b00-a2d0-3cb403d4b36f.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Bristol_Herald_Courier&fbclid=IwAR1LFxFcHxJ4DScXnpdBVFPvQUg6QaAgiTCyYojccRipQXVgaR8Dfk_3EZI
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Re: 12z....The CMC backed further west around 96. The GFS looked like it was going to early in its run. The big thing I notice is that it is slowing down. That might allow for a bigger storm.
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Very steady look by the CMC. For once, can the GFS actually be too progressive this winter, and live up to its old bias...LOL.
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I ask selfishly, because sometimes that works out for E TN as well. I seem to remember that phase 3-4 has a weird correlation to snow in your area. I filed that away just because it is unusual.
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Looks like it has slowed on the CMC as well.
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FWIW, the 12z GFS looks like it has a feedback issue w/ stalling this just west of Hatteras.
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The other thing is the 12z GFS does not appear to have a consolidated center as it seems to have one foot in the faster solution and one foot in the slower....slightly double barrel in nature. Someone remind me...doesn't NC have a weird teleconnection to phase 4-5 of the MJO? @Met1985, do you remember that study that @GaWxhad at one time. In other words, right in the middle of that warm tour...NC scores more often than not.
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Looks super similar to 6z...just slower. That slow down "could" produce a more westward component to the trajectory if that trend continues. Slower usually results in westward down the line.
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Can u see past 66h?
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LOL. You got me!
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I am gonna roll with the GFS being west of 6z. It is digging every so lightly more at 36. But truly...IDK.
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You all who have been watching this closely for a couple of days...should be able to spot trends early as it is under 84 hours now.
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12z GFS is rolling.
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Oddly, if it is a big storm, I rarely worry about ground temps. Those can be overcome. Heavy rates trump.
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Thinking more about that good question...I say let it rip in terms of strength. We are going to need that to overcome temps. We want cold air crashing into the NW quadrant. I think we only get that if it deepens.
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Also, downsloping along the western foothills is definitely a concern if cold air is not in place and is being manufactured. The 12z NAM shows that downsloping effect quite well. W NC is cold and E TN is in the mid 40s. Need this to hit at night. What is the timing on this? I haven't even looked.
