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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Binghamton over to N NH in the 12/17 storm was supposed to get a few inches maybe and in some cases weren’t even under watches but ended up buried over 30”. Can’t expect that again but the northern edge isn’t a bad place to be in storms like these. There’s very often a big mid level lift band there with very high ratios.
  2. jm1220
    It’s actually a possibility that ratios could be over 10-1 for a time as well for most of us if we don’t have to deal with warm air intrusion aloft. If the strong lift can match up with the -12 to -18C layer aloft that would maximize ratios.
  3. jm1220
    Actually from what I saw in the NE forum the GGEM ensembles were better NW of the city than down here. A whole bunch of outcomes are still possible.
  4. jm1220
    Until the one tonight and then tomorrow etc. I wouldn’t freak out about any outcome at this point. I’d say tomorrow is when we can really start to nail down the outcome.
  5. jm1220
    Snow maps again shouldn't be taken too seriously but there will be areas where dynamics are maxed out and once the low starts occluding the snow will be more spotty and banded/shredded. So that could be what causes it in E CT.
  6. jm1220
    We’re overdue for lousy winters down here for sure which I’ve said before. There’s been 1” here across a few “events” since the 12/17 storm and we’re less than 1/3 to seasonal average snow. This one isn’t nailed down yet by any means. Hopefully there’s a way we all get crushed.
  7. jm1220
    Pretty much the template winter storm forecast since the 1970s. “Yada yada changing to rain in the city heavy snow north and west”
  8. jm1220
    It can't be discounted. There's still plenty of time for a shift back north. Minor changes in the underlying mid level pattern can lead to significant changes at the surface. Although right now I'd downplay talk of changing over.
  9. jm1220
    Which makes it comical how it somehow only has 3-4" of snow in the I-287 area. If anything that may indicate a subsidence area could happen there over my roof on LI. People shouldn't live and die on snow maps.
  10. jm1220
    The lobes rotating around the confluence that's left will be important. Seems like now there is a lobe developing that will reinforce the confluence.
  11. jm1220
    There's often heavy snow west and north of where the max QPF axis is. I don't have access to the upper level charts but even the GFS to me seemed like it would get better dynamics and snow north of where it had it. There'll be a long easterly mid level fetch that will bring plenty of moisture in.
  12. jm1220
    To me it still looked good for many of us.
  13. jm1220
    I’m not worried about anything the GFS shows for coastal storms at this range. It can comically catch onto the consensus 24 hours out or even less. We just have to hope the confluence isn’t too strong.
  14. jm1220
    It isn’t as much a problem this time vs in December when there was practically no snow south of Sandy Hook. But a long NE fetch would likely warm the surface up especially south of Asbury Park.
  15. jm1220
    Yes, definitely true. Last minute north trends are undeniable in 90% of the storms that come here in the winter. On 12/17 areas that got 30”+ had something like 0.25” liquid on most models 24 hours before.
  16. jm1220
    14 here.
  17. jm1220
    Issue is the confluence seems to be strengthening on some of the modeling which forces it too far south. Hopefully that’s a trend that can reverse.
  18. jm1220
    I wouldn't be worried about small details like where banding shows up right now, as long as the evolution overall looks good aloft the rest should fall into place.
  19. jm1220
    Surprised no GFS posts? Looked good to me anyway
  20. jm1220
    The Pacific was totally uncooperative with our blocking which meant the storm today going out to sea, or it relaxed at the wrong times which meant the storm that fell apart for us and hit I-90 instead. This wave looks more vigorous and should reach our area at least with good precip but maybe I’m wrong to think it will and it will be shunted out like the storm today off VA. Still plenty of room for changes.
  21. jm1220
    Temps on the GFS are often total crap. For precip type I would go by the 700 and 850 low tracks. If those go SE of you you should be good for all snow. When those track over or NW of you is when you should be concerned about a dryslot and mixing.
  22. jm1220
    The "dual-max" with QPF min in the middle may be a concern. The initial energy/overrunning max out SW of us and then eastern New England gets pummeled with the easterly flow around the low. Still way too far out to bank on anything but it's a look I've been noticing today. Regardless I don't see this getting squashed way south of here. A 12/17-like outcome where we near the shore worry about the dryslot and warm air is significantly more likely IMO (maybe not the most likely, that's vs. too suppressed)
  23. jm1220
    Just goes to show a whole range of options still on the table. The evolution of the upper low and the blocking will determine who gets what.
  24. jm1220
    The Euro seemed to evolve the system more slowly which allowed the system to become more amped and tuck into/hug the coast. It’s certainly a possibility and yes, a low hanging out in Delaware Bay very rarely ends up as a snowy outcome near NYC and the coast. It means a dryslot and warm air coming in. We’re back in the same boat as 12/17 (with this evolution) where we hope the blocking can force the low east as it tries to tuck into and stay on the coast. As we know it was a solid/good event for us near the coast but better inland. Another issue we have to look at is the primary and how quick it transfers to the coastal low. Plenty of time for things to change.
  25. jm1220
    I’m going with 9” here for the season. 8” from the Dec 17 storm and 1” scattered between yesterday’s event, the burst of snow a few days ago and the small event soon after 12/17. Season average is around 30” where I am.
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