jm1220

Mostly just flurries in Melville.

Some flurries in Long Beach earlier. Looks like a really small snow shower came by since the clouds had some precipitation streaks underneath.

They’re learning like we do every storm about the advancing mid level warm surge close in. I think someone gets jipped pretty bad in the Raleigh over to Charlotte corridor from a lot of sleet. Of course, if the snow comes in crazy it may not matter and could hold off the warm air for a while. Really tough forecast for the corridor where most in NC live.

If I had to pick a spot to be for this, it would definitely be just south of Roanoke, down I-81 to Bristol and the W NC mountains. You guys should get buried around there. Enjoy!

I would track the 700/850mb lows on the models-where they go determines who mixes and dryslots. If the 850mb low goes over or north of you, expect a significant period of sleet. And mid level warming is often underestimated by models-I would take the warmest mid level forecast and go with that. Surface level warming can be overestimated, so that may set up a nasty area of ZR. Something we get burned with plenty of times up here too. Good luck down there as I may spot a cirrus cloud or two from this later today. Just maybe. Usually these suppressed pieces of crap at least get some cirrus up here.

It may trend north, I can see it getting far enough to slam DC, but we need the confluence to be timed differently for a significant hit up here. It'll get up to a certain point and just get squashed east by that confluence. Some models have a reinforcing shot of it right as the storm is winding up on the SC coast. We need that upper low over the Maritimes to weaken so the moist flow can make it further north.

Not to jump on this even more, but unless the confluence over New England and dry flow from the northern stream eases, I'm not interested in this north of the M/D line and maybe not even DC. That push of confluence in the northern stream when the storm is developing is horribly timed for an impact up here. It'll just string the storm out and force it east.

Even up here it's gusting decently. This is definitely an impressive system that blew up quick.

Not that slow moving, but just maturing and banding in the same exact spots as the Mar 7th storm this winter. And warmer than that storm was. Rained hard for an hour or so here, but it'll probably be showery from here on out from NYC east, maybe a band or two can make it east of the Hudson. The dynamics from this peaked over NJ/E PA. Crazy how even the HRRR could've gotten that so wrong. Lucky it's late November and not a few degrees colder when that difference would mean another 12" of snow from what was predicted over N NJ. The models got the general storm right but the short term a bust.

Newest HRRR doesn't show more than 0.50" anywhere west of I-287, and 1.50-2"+ reaching into NYC/western LI still. LOL

HRRR this run just this hour has 0.5-0.75" rain hugging the S CT coast, less north and the same delusion of heavy rain on the NJ coast only and into NYC/western LI. The heavy rain band is to the MA border, LI is dryslotting and the CCB area of rain is rotting over W NJ. Maybe the N NJ rain pivots back east but it seems to just be rotting there. Seems like about an inch of rain so far around here. Definitely an exciting and dynamic system but awful performance by short-term models this close in.

I don't have any saved radar images of the Mar 7th storm but this looks like its twin from my memory. The dry slot is already making its way onto the South Shore so the LI rain totals the models are showing will probably be a good bit high unless it does a hard right turn this second. Also obviously more heavy rain into N NJ than models had.

All I know is that this move up to the North Shore better pay off for me. I expect nothing less than 50% added onto whatever Long Beach gets this winter, and for said snow to last 50% longer on the ground. Or maybe I just brought my suffering up north to the PSV, NorthShoreWx, etc crew. We already got cursed by the early season snow event. When you look at the sample size of 2011 and 2012 this happened in, guess it's a sign we need to surrender now.

Definitely pouring now. Yikes. Glad I headed back here from LB before this started.

I guess we'll see. If the models are right, the dry slot should stop heading north very soon and the rain pivots east and weakens some as the forcing diminishes. The heaviest amounts should be from us down the NJ shore from here. I'd say it's moderate-heavy where I am. Quite a dynamic little system.

LOL at the models which are all, even HRRR trying to shift the heavy rain east too soon while the dry slot is still surging north and NJ/E PA is getting drenched. Coming down good here in Huntington but at this rate the dry slot will be on the South Shore soon. Radar looks like a pinpoint replica of the mid March storm that dumped 24" along I-287 and went dryslot crazy east of there against model predictions. I guess either the 700mb low is tracking west of where models have it again, or dry air is wrapping around it more than models have.

Maybe. I got back when things were about over.

Gonna go with 4.5” here total. It’s all rain now and starting to melt/settle.

Back to sleet and some mangled flakes. This mix line is really putting up a fight.

Finally turned over to mostly rain here.

The slightly stronger high, cold wedge and cold dewpoints made the difference, along with the massive front end with dynamic cooling of the column. If it came in patchy and more showery, the column would’ve warmed up much sooner and we would’ve seen much less.

My home was wrecked by Sandy so I wasn’t in LB, but people who were here said something like half a foot. Still snowing a little here with some sleet, but accums are done.

Finally got home to Long Beach. I’d estimate 5” here. Snow mixed with sleet and a little rain now.

Sleet/rain/snow mix in Long Beach. Looks like a good 4-5” on the ground.

HORRENDOUS road conditions. Heading back to LB and pulled over in Wantagh. Still puking snow here.