jm1220

Yeah, also a possibility. Surface temps on the south shore may be just over freezing to start the event and result in it being rain, but it gets colder as the storm goes on. I remember Jan 2004 being a lot of sleet for hours, and 2/8/13 also killing the extreme south shore with sleet whiile it snowed for hours on the north shore. It's what stopped everyone on LI from reaching 18-20"+. Those totals were on the north shore where it was almost all snow and further east where the death band set up.

It's looking like one of those events where there could be a big difference between north and south shore-cold air looks marginal in general but most models are just cold enough north of the LIE to have a good chunk of it be wet snow. South of there could fight back and forth or have problems accumulating. I'm becoming more optimistic that my area sees at least 2-3". If I was in Long Beach still I'd be thinking a lot of it's rain.

I'm finally ready to be somewhat bullish at least for northern areas of NYC and LI. The Nam and to lesser extent the Euro going just a hair colder as the precip gets intense later tonight, at least enough to tip it maybe just cold enough for snow, is encouraging. It'll be interesting to see how far SE the cold air can make it with the heavier precip rates-whether it makes it down to the south shore. Could be a system where there's a notable difference between north of the Northern State and south of Sunrise Highway. Could easily be a few inches if the cold gets in soon enough with the heavy precip. Hopefully this can finally be a storm where it matters that I moved here from LB.

Better to expect little and be surprised on the high end than vice versa. It’s a much tighter rope getting this one to work out down here than over SNE. We need the low to develop sooner so the cold air can crash down, and it stay far enough SE to not allow warm mid level air in. The safe bet is for mostly rain around the city and coast. If the Euro goes notably cooler at 12z it may be time to bite on something better.

SNE didn’t seem happy with that Nam run which is probably good down here. Low in general ticked SE which meant a colder outcome. SNE crew is saying it may have been convection happy and kicked it east prematurely. The storm ramping up quicker may cool the column down faster and make it colder anyway. This’ll be quite tricky actually. I’m expecting practically nothing for the coast, mostly a washout so anything would be nice. Never fun watching Boston get slammed while we get soaked or nothing.

Seemed like about an inch in Huntington Station at around 6:45.

NAM tends to be overamped at the end of its range, not sure if that's a bias that's been fixed.

The Nam seemed to dampen out the low and send it east too soon. I doubt with this we'd do better than Boston or SE MA.

I'd be more comfortable with that if the Euro shows it too-it's hi res like those models. Right now the Euro still looks warm here. Hopefully overnight, the models cranking the storm sooner can crash the cold mid level air south sooner.

The Nam is really the only model that crashes the 850s south like that. It's possible if the storm is dynamic enough but it seems like things just get going a little late for that to happen for us, and there's a primary-ish system to the west that brings warm air up. Most models hold the 850 zero line near the CT coast and Rockland/Westchester until it's gone.

It’s looking like a nice event from maybe the Hudson Valley through SNE. It could really go to town in Boston through SE MA. It looks marginal/too warm near the coast here unless the coastal low can ramp up faster. The first feature tomorrow night again looks like it dries up as it gets here, much like the system about a week ago. Any which way, it looks like nothing can work out with these. I’m still thinking odds are the Sun night/Monday system is warm/rain near the coast due to it being too close. Maybe the Sat night event can be strong enough to bring the boundary east for the next one, but the latest GFS wasn’t enough to get it done east of the city.

Not optimistic for this near the coast so far. The trend with these is typically more amped at the end, especially with the SE ridge trying to stay stout. Cutters and huggers have been common this season. I’d say it’s equal chances complete washout for the city and coast or some decent snow before changing over to a washout.

I went to school there in the mid and late 2000s when winters there were awful for snow. I feel the pain and it’s good that Central PA is finally doing OK and having a good snow season, especially since there are ski resorts there that rely on it. As for us, our average is what it is for a reason and it was inevitable we’d have winters like these to make up for the bonanza seasons. The way it’s happening with this snow hole staying so constant all season is crazy. Very rare for DC and Richmond to be above average for snow along with NNE while PHL to BOS are well below. Usually one suffers at the expense of the other.

Dusting in Huntington Station

West of here's been OK also. I was in State College this weekend and there was decent, 5" or so snow coverage. Harrisburg is above normal so far this season. It's really just been the coastal plain in this area that's been completely shafted.

Yeah, this winter is one horrible joke that someone repeats over and over again as if it’s funny. And this week just to reiterate, a snow event is happening for I-90 tonight that will shoot over us, and an event 2 days from now will likely get suppressed underneath us as it dries up, much as the last snow/rain “event” did. The Mon AM event does seem somewhat interesting but I wont bite until 48-60 hours out, and this winter that may even be too long before something ruins it-it becomes a cutter or gets confluenced/suppressed to the gutter. For any snow lover in NYC, this winter has been just beyond sucky.

Practically unheard of for MN/WI to have big El Niño snow years. Many jaws would hit floors if you took the headlines for this winter and told them it wasn’t a strong Nina .

It was a pretty impressive period of ZR at my place (by my puny standards). Ice was still hanging on some branches a little after dawn.

This winter resembles a Nina much more than a Nino in terms of how snowfall has been distributed across the country, MJO stuck in phase 5/6, the constant Pacific Jet, and rounds of -PNA which are very rare in El Ninos. The bonanza snow areas have been the upper Midwest, Pacific NW and NNE, while other areas further south in the Mid Atlantic were able to cash in on the confluence-driven patterns that shunted the snow from reaching us. Luckily CA has almost totally been able to end its drought (the only drought area is right along the OR border) and the Sierras have tremendous snow piled up to replenish the reservoirs later. But this winter can't end soon enough as far as I'm concerned. It's been like having one nail ripped out after another with the storms drying up as they reach us, cutters, and missed opportunities caused by confluence.

I'm a mile or so NE of Jayne's Hill and it's quite hilly here (at least compared to Long Beach). Haven't seen actual freezing rain enough to leave a decent glaze in quite a while. In LB, freezing rain is quite rare.

Light freezing rain here. Colder surfaces have a glaze and the snow has an icy crust on top. Car doors are glazed shut.

I'm already noticing a slight glaze on my car. Yep, temps don't look to be in a hurry to go up.

A little over an inch in Huntington Station. Some very light sleet/freezing drizzle falling.

Light to mod snow in Huntington, seems like half an inch or so. Main roads wet, side roads slippery.

Not too optimistic for much more than we currently have in our area. Radar looking more paltry as dry air is cutting into the snow, and the heavier echos are focusing to our south. Eventually it will head north but by then the column will be warmer. Hopefully I’m wrong.