jm1220

Light snow/snow grains a few minutes ago.

The old GFS is the only model I can see bringing anything decent to near NYC/LI. Para GFS is largely a washout south of I-84 like the NAM and Euro. We could use the rain so that's a win I guess. There probably will be a changeover to snow/slush as it ends but it would be brief near the coast. I-90 corridor is heavily favored here.

To me it looks like a mainly I-90 event with maybe some snow at the end down to NYC. Northern posters might get a few inches. I’m not too interested unless we get significant changes.

The 2/25/10 storm a few weeks before that one was also very impressive wind-wise, also decent for snow. I think there was 10” in Long Beach but obviously much more just west where it was all snow.

That March 2010 storm was wicked on the south shore of LI. In Long Beach, the craziest wind event I saw up to that point with hurricane force gusts and trees coming down everywhere with significant property damage-torn shingles and anything loose. I remember a constant wail from fire/police vehicles in the background along with the roaring winds. From that, to Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012 the vast majority of sturdy large trees in Long Beach were lost so now around town you see a lot of smaller or newly planted trees.

Sea breeze made it to the barrier beaches. Wunderground temps there seem to be up to 10 degrees cooler than just inland.

Can’t complain with a widespread 12-18” event for the NYC area and 24-30” in N NJ along with several other significant events. I’d have to give this winter a solid B/B+. The bad January keeps it from being an A, and generally this was an above average snow winter but not massively so (out in the Allentown area different story). I have about 40” on the nose which is probably 8” above average.

Tough forecast coming for Denver. Models like the NAM really don’t have much there and the snow goes well north into WY, but the GFS has a lot more. Could be the difference between something really significant like 18+ or barely a warning event on the Nam there.

Westerly winds FTW.

Still a snow patch that could in my backyard. Maybe it can make it through today for the cold front. Just maybe...

Looks like it’s heating up a little more than I thought near the coast. EWR should hit 70 easily. If you want winter, Cheyenne WY would be an awesome place to book a flight. 30-36” snow expected there this weekend. Yikes.

On the south shore beaches anyway I don’t expect it to get much above 50 with due south winds. If winds are more SW it could be warmer. I don’t expect widespread 60s east of the city with the onshore flow. Hopefully I’m wrong.

Surprised that Upton went with highs in the 60s east of NYC with a southerly wind this time of year. We heated up on Tue on WNW winds. I'm thinking many of us near the coast struggle to get above 55 tomorrow, maybe north shore areas like here can do better. Immediate coast like Long Beach and Jones Beach maybe not even over 50. On Fri winds turn westerly again so that should warm everyone up.

Beginning of the nasty cold seabreeze season on the south shore. Looks like mainly low to mid 40s there in the onshore flow.

62 here. Gorgeous outside. The stubborn snow patch in my backyard is finally disappearing.

If we can keep the lower heights from building over Nova Scotia it can be a pretty warm month altogether.

The “last hurrah” pattern that can give a late snow event can come back in April in those years while in a snowy Feb, the pattern warms up in March and shuts down the snow which might be what’s happening now.

Probably.

Central Park 38.6”, Boston 38.4”. Photo finish FTW. My backyard’s at about 40” on the nose.

Yes-crazy that I have 40” for the season when a chunk of each significant event was sleet and rain.

My backyard and shaded places still have full coverage. Places that get a lot of sun are getting bare in spots but others are still fully covered. The cement snow layer from 2/1 is holding on as best it can.

There was very little water in that snow which melts it easier in the sun. There’s a ton of water in this snow/cement which makes it take longer but the higher and higher sun in late Feb gets it done.

I’ve yet to see NWS or commercial agencies’ seasonal temps and precip predictions differ much from the climo Nina or Nino maps when these come out, with a couple degrees added for the background climate warming. I pay almost zero attention to most of these since there seems to be little analysis behind them. I pay more attention to the analyses posted here that look at other factors that can override the background ENSO state.

It makes sense that there would be the cold blob near Greenland because of melting ice.

Gorgeous out today. The snow is taking a beating for sure but it’s about that time of year anyway and can’t complain for sure this month.