jm1220

That's why +AO, crazy progressive patterns are the worst. They cause warm cutters but also late developing/suppressed storms like this and the one that recently hit NC/VA and out to sea. When storms do form to our south the fast jet shoves them out to sea. Phasing happens too late or not at all. It all just comes together to shaft our area time after time. Needless to say some small tweaks could've caused a monster for our area. Instead we have some light rain and some kinda mangled snowflakes when you look at the streetlight.

Rain/snow mix in Huntington. More snow when the precip comes down heavier.

And models are typically underdone this time of year when we have torchy patterns. In reality many places not cooled down by the sea breeze would make it to 70.

I’ve moved on to just wanting spring weather (although with our luck it’ll be an awful backdoor season too). Winter’s been dead to me for a month now when the hope for any change to the AO, NAO, roaring Pacific Jet, MJO, Bueller, anything for the better ended. Nothing of any significance will happen here until that meaningfully changes and now we’re into March and the hill gets steeper every day.

If this was 50mi NW, it wouldn’t be as much of an issue. The issue is that it seems like light-mod precip which wouldn’t provide the dynamics needed to cool the column. Could that happen? Maybe, I’d lean towards not given the atrocious overall pattern.

If the precip is light or moderate it would likely be white rain, which could happen if the low is bombing well out at sea and moving east. If it's closer and heavy bands come through, it would crash down to 32 and be accumulating. But a ways to go before figuring that out.

It boils down to the very progressive nature of the pattern that wants to shove everything East even if there is a phase. The ridge is right on its heels and flattens it/pushes it OTS. That all needs to slow down IMO.

That would just be the perfect kick to the teeth.

Maybe only 168hrs to go for some passing white rain!!

9.5” woohoo!!! But agree, it’s hysterical how much different things can be here vs the south shore, and I’ve been here for two lousy winters (Last year lousy, this year among all time worst). I’d say it’s comparable here to SW CT and the bit of added elevation helps too.

If you’re okay with being a complete hermit, fine.

The warm waters in the western tropical Pacific essentially forced a strong Nina type pattern for North America. It wasn’t anywhere close to strong Nina index-wise but the pattern outcome was classic Nina. Cold west/North/Alaska, above normal snow NNE, PNW and Midwest, SE ridge and raging Pacific Jet dominate.

See my quoted posts about the SE ridge, roaring Pacific, +AO and NAO. Until that changes we get rain.

2/25/10 was significant for me but not crippling like just west. I had 10” or so after a ton of rain. I remember it more for wind which foreshadowed the March 80mph wind beast that knocked trees down everywhere.

So glad that eastern Nc and S.C. might leapfrog over NYC in seasonal snow soon. Was worried about that not happening in this so called winter.

What got me into weather was the Blizzard of 1996. I’m sure that and any other severe weather event collapsed before it got to the south shore where I grew up.

The snow that night was amazing because I’m not used to seeing a foot of paste on everything-the paste snow events on the south shore are typically short lived and go to rain like 2/13/14. 2 days later it was almost gone.

I'm fine with just ending this "winter" if this is how it stays. I don't see how anyone can have joy in a pattern that's still stormy but no sustained cold (the 1-2 day dry cold shots like we have coming Friday are meaningless and this is still shaping up to be a very warm Feb).

If North America was too wide, we'd just live in a desert. Not what most would want. Not that the Atlantic's been great either (actually this year it's been atrocious, maybe there should be a study of correlation between average flight times to London and seasonal NYC snow in a winter. I'd bet the longer flight time winters have more NYC snow since that would probably indicate -NAO) but the Pacific is by far the biggest ocean, with most of the world's heat budget. We live in the westerlies, so whatever the Pacific decides to do we're essentially stuck with. The Pacific jet has especially been ridiculous this and last winter and we suffer as a result. Until that quiets down and the Atlantic can also slow down and develop some blocking, we're stuck with a cold/snowy West, upper MIdwest and NNE and lousy everywhere else.

One positive of the ++NAO is these record fast flights to London I guess https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/british-airways-fast-flight-scli-intl-gbr/index.html

Was very easy to call this rain, just follow the pattern and what countless other events have been doing all season. It's rain. Maybe Syracuse and Adirondacks can get a nice event, or the Ohio Valley. Just won't be us until the Pacific jet slows down, SE ridge can get squashed, and/or the NAO cooperates. It just won't happen. I couldn't care less what some 180 or 240hr model shows until those factors change.

Exactly. No blocking, rampaging Pacific Jet and SE ridge, it’s rain.

Winds in Melville were impressive for a time especially when the line of heavy showers came through, but otherwise it was fairly pedestrian to me although maybe I missed worse periods. Driving back home I noticed some branches down and trash cans blown around but not much other damage. Luckily it doesn't seem that outages are too bad on LI, according to PSEG there's 1062 customers out? It was impressive as a wind event but nothing memorable like March 2010. The worst of the winds look like they were near the twin forks and then over Cape Cod where there were 70-80mph gusts.

Pretty much. I won’t be optimistic at all for anything until those underlying conditions change. This likely rides the crazy SE ridge like the rest and cuts inland at the end.