jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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That’s actually a good bump east, it was plowing the low into PA before.
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Radar estimate about 0.8” here. Heavy shower just went through.
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Rain here’s about done. Will probably end with about 0.6”.
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It’ll be a test to see how much the SE ridge can flex and cause a coastal track or it can get away with sliding well east out to sea. El Niño favors a more muted SE ridge and this summer there have been lots of recurves, but the ridge always seems to be undermodeled as well.
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It is raining pretty hard now, maybe we make up some ground.
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I have about 0.33” and it had me well over an inch. This last batch might get me to 0.5” but the inch or more will be to my east. If any model did well it might be the RGEM. Scratch that, maybe HRRR?
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That’s the coastal low precip that should hit the E half of Suffolk. As for us we’re mostly done. Euro fails yet again.
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The split screw dry zone from 2 days ago is showing up on radar for the NJ coast and will probably push into W LI. We’ll see how much of the coastal system rain can affect LI. So the models that kept that idea will likely be right.
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Drove out by Moriches to Riverhead today, saw the large patches of dead pines. This is mostly from the beetle?
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Can always use the rain here so hopefully it produces. So many recent shaftings however it’s tough to be hopeful.
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Models all have the split screw to some extent but getting a little less obnoxious with it other than the RGEM. They also have more of the coastal low rain hitting LI now. We'll just have to see what happens.
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If you took out the ENSO regions and possibly the Indian Ocean you’d still think we’re in perma-Nina. There’s warm water trying to set up on the W Coast but it’s still overwhelmed by the W Pacific warm signal, so we still have the -PDO. It’ll be interesting for winter how that all shakes out.
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NAM would split screw most of us with an initial round for the NW areas then the coastal low well out to sea. Other models have this split screw as well.
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Yup, of course 18z models look to be trending well out to sea with any significant rain. Guess we’ll see what happens.
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Could finally be one where east of the city is favored for the heavy rain.
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The W sides of these are almost always meh wind wise. More rain but the wind switches to the east side where Halifax looks to have 70-80mph type gusts, but very little rain. In my experience Henri had a ton of rain in NYC on the west side but the wind resembled a regular windy day. And looks like the rain hasn’t even been that impressive, some places have 3” in Maine?
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You can see the fewer clipper/small-medium snow event effect I mentioned in the State College data. Pretty clear decline below BOS in the last 15 years. So many big coastal and boom/bust patterns are awful for central PA. SWFEs also blast warm mid level air there so they become ice events. They used to at least get a few of these mid range snow events per year but now with practically no clippers and so many coastal storms, inland south of where SWFEs can still be snow (like Albany) suffers. Maybe if this stronger SE ridge is a semi permanent feature, State College can recover in the future with more inland runners. They really need a return to more Miller A favored patterns too, and this strong Nino might be good for them.
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Radar reminds me of our Juno 2015 and how far the heavy rain will back into Cape Cod.
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It’s because of outflow and southerly flow overall ahead of the hurricane at the upper levels.
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I agree with this pretty much. It probably does make a “fair dice” come up little/no snow more often than 40 years ago due to the background warming, and certain other things like fewer/no minor clippers anymore that would be good for a few inches are head scratchers. The background “perma-Nina” because of the piping hot W Pacific is something else that needs more study. In general Niña isn’t a good state south of New England although down to Philly it isn’t a kiss of death and we can get it to work out like in 17-18 or 10-11. Last season was just a combo of the worst possible factors like the record -PNA. That shouldn’t mean record snow for LA but that’s how insanely negative it was. That will never be good for most of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic.
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Pretty but extra tropical looking storm, eaten away on the south side. Interesting to see the edge of the cirrus canopy from such a huge storm over my head.
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A few drops. On a better note winds are now NW which means this disgusting humidity is on its way out.
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At least the front should cool things down and end the ridiculous humidity.
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I'm a Giants fan. I'll leave it at that.
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For once I lucked out IMBY but it's generally the same garbage July pattern. Endless rain inland, high dewpoint swamp here. And I agree, this time of year it shouldn't be happening.
