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FLweather

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Everything posted by FLweather

  1. Looking at radar tonight and what is depicted on the models as far as a potential tropical cyclone. There is a weak area of LP over the GOM around and west of Tampa/Clearwater.
  2. It's about to storm again for about the 3-4th time today. Last couple of days have been wet. Rained decent yesterday and today. Hopefully our dry season is over here. Cause it's been hot and slow on getting the rainy season going. Almost have been on the verge of burning up.
  3. No and no. Especially considering that it's transitioning from a tropical LP(warm core) to a mid latitude cold core LP. Looking at the euro. The reason behind the difference between the two maps above is the fact that the Euro is showing the ridging over the Rockies breaking down some degree. Then troughing developing across the Midwest and Great Lakes. What's left of the mid and upper levels basically has SW energy injected into from the developing trough. This amplifying the remaining upper levels.
  4. This weekends runs of the Canadian sure backed off on this system. The organization and strength. Last night's run shows nothing more that tropical low pressure. With a plume of thunderstorms for the FL panhandle AL, MS. With increasing SW shear closer to land it gets.
  5. Honestly the GFS and Canadian have pretty much been in agreement with showing something in the southern GOM. Even last night's 0z run both show at least a TD/ Low end TS making landfall some where on the Texas Coast.
  6. Not trying to get OT. But I've been working out there in Clearwater off of SR 60 and McMullen Booth Road by the Ruth Ekcard performing arts center. I can imagine it gets really sketchy out there with anything higher than a cat 1. Very low country out there. Very obvious that with the right conditions and trajectory it will flood quickly from the storm surge.
  7. Looking at the models today. Canadian and GFS. I'd say it's a safe bet to place. From Louisiana to the big bend of FL in about 10 days. At minimal a disorganized sub tropical storm. Worst case a organized full blown TS min hurricane.
  8. My thoughts as well. Alot of these small retention ponds have pretty well dried up. Been a rather lack luster start. About a week ago seen a small brush fire off of 27 south of Leasburg, FL. I just hope that we don't have a drought then bam.... Hurricane after hurricane. Something similar to 2004.
  9. It's been warm. Near 90 the last three days. The front is near by.
  10. Quite warm yesterday. Up near 90 yesterday and for the next two days. Ready for the rainy season to kick in. Nothing like sitting on the porch listening to the thunder and heavy rain from the seabreeze collisions.
  11. Nice pictures. SE person county? Looking back towards from the west northwest
  12. According to an old neighbor. Via txt messages. They just had the worse ice storm she can reminder. From some of the pics on FB. Looked pretty bad. Trees snapped like toothpicks. No power. Near Roxboro
  13. Most definitely. Token flakes will happen.
  14. Not trolling. This is not a proper miller b storm. Anybody with enough common sense without a met tag can tell that this setup is not favorable.
  15. Thanks it hurts I know. Been there done that. But you are correct.
  16. Enjoy that tonight. Sorry. This time tomorrow you will be asking "what snow"
  17. Enjoy your low to mid 30s. You can look at radar tell by the angle and trajectory. It's not going to happen south of the VA border. Too much WAA with this setup. Sorry. Where ever you are expect your temps to creap up. 35-40.
  18. You are right. Considering the angle and trajectory... Too much WAA going to happen. You can see it on radar. Oh well the mountains about to have one hell of a storm.
  19. 0z hrrr pretty well shows a all rain event for NC,SC Narrow line southern VA heading north.
  20. FWIW TWC weather app. Has snow over the mountains breaking out roughly 1-130. Rain east roughly 2am. No zr or sleet.
  21. We will see. Not your typical miller b transfer. Opens up into a huge massive trough. With the blocking downstream makes me wonder if we can get the cold on this side of the globe. Maybe a cold start to Feb and finish to March.
  22. I'm going out on a limb. Looking at current trends Y'all mountain folks should do well. I don't really agree on the transfer. I do see the possibility of y'all having zr. But should be limited. Once the trough axis swings through @ h5 should be a decent NWF event afterwards.
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