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Ice Time? Dec. 16ish Possible CAD Event
FLweather replied to Tar Heel Snow's topic in Southeastern States
Earlier in the week. When I was saying that it was not a true cad setup. There hasn't been. -
Started off cool and damp. Very broken line of showers came through around 11. Once the clouds clear it got pretty warm. Near 80 to a couple degrees over. Still in the upper 70s.
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Ice Time? Dec. 16ish Possible CAD Event
FLweather replied to Tar Heel Snow's topic in Southeastern States
Kinda figured it would. Looking at surface maps and h5. -
Was a nice warm day. Started off a little cool. But didn't take long to change clothes and drop the jacket. Made it up to 80 a little over. Currently the windows have been open and shorts and flip flops. Glad the weather turned out nice today Was able to watch the SirusXM 7 SpaceX launch from my place. That's a big bright fireball underneath those Falcon 9 rockets.
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I know. But current global models are a toss up. That engery dropping from the NW seems to open up and flatten the wave. Needs to consolidate and strengthen more. As it drops in from the NW to TX,Ok. Like grit posted. That would help with the confluence. Baby steps but the puzzle pieces are not there.
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Not trying to sound like a troll. But if you look at both models and timing. Far from a ice storm. 29-31 ain't going to cut it with day time warming and retreating cold. Ice storms are a limited process without a cold air supply. Especially when the CAD starts scouring out.
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The likely hood of it resembling GEM is low. Both GFS and Canadian granted it's a 1030ish+ HP the placement of the high is not ideal for a CAD event. On top of that its retreating. Not to mention H5 wave is opening up as the surface develops. I know all too well. But this is going to be more than likely a low to mid 30s rainfall.
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Considering that it's still out there, the difference of the models. GFS Para, GFS, CMC, RGEM, Icon all show the same wave. Just different evolutions If the northern stream would slow down allow more interaction. Possibility of something forming. But that wave that drops from the NW to TX/OK roughly 96hr to 120 looks kind of intriguing.
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Quite frosty this morning. About 34. Not as frosty as the other day. But the lake behind my house was steaming good. Looked like a big pot of boiling water.
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Gfs para keeps the southern stream pretty active. Almost like a train. 6 chances of rain between now and Christmas. Sadly no cold air around.
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Enjoy. 18z gfs for you. Weak retreating HP in Canada. Great Lakes low. 18z gfs has been in the funny brownies tonight.
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Another cold Florida day. Upper 50s sun and wind today after a cold morning near 40. Apopka and most of Orange county under a frost advisory. Low 60ish tomorrow.
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Dont get too wild. You're not a spring chicken.
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Any Iguanas Special weather statement? That CAA coming. It was in the 50s most of the day. Had high clouds that turned to mist/showers after the first initial prefrontal axis. Then the front hit. Last 2hours or so before the sun went down it cleared out and warmed up to the mid 60s.
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Cloud tops growing around Roanoke and south. That lobe of vorticy dropping SE through WV atm. Wouldn't be too surprised for a dusting Caswell, Person, Durham, Alamance counties.
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Did you get any severe weather from this system? Rain started here just before 11pm. More than I expected. CAA fully underway... upper 30s tonight.
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I wouldn't be surprised if if folks south of Danville towards eden Roxboro
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Good luck y'all. Its coming. Cloud tops building over AR/MS and the deck over TN is getting thicker. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-07-24-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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You can definitely spot the warm front boundary and appears to be a bit of a surface low across the southern Gulf. The HRRR brings light rain starting around 11. Even a line of elevated convection around 1am here. So it's got some ground to cover. Supposed to get up to 66 tomorrow before falling. Supposed to stay cloudy pretty all day too. We'll see how that works out. Looks loud and thundering for you over night early morning.
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Cmc, gfs, gfs para, nam showing some love to Central/Northern Va for Mondays system. Nothing that really sticks
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Looking at 12z nam, gfs, cmc. All pretty much in agreement. Looks like the best chance of convection will be around Lake Okeechobee and south as the SWs dig and surface low blossoms over the Atlantic waters Sunday Night into Monday. Should remain relatively dry then, maybe a few windshield showers/mist.
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Started off completely overcast and cool this morning. Now not a cloud in the sky. Low 70ish.
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The last couple of days haven't been so bad. Upper 60s to low 70s. Still cool in the mornings though. 70 today 73 tomorrow. Depending on how and where those short waves swing through Monday morning. May just have some light showers or with embedded thunder storms. The bahia grass that hit by the heavy frost the other day was brown/black the next day. The official end of the growing season. Even though this area all the way to the keys stay evergreen year round.
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0z Canadian. Va special? Surely the northern Piedmont to at least 85 would be in the game also.
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Going out on a limb here. Judging by the models. Too many moving pieces. But next week will feature another storm/ULL.
