FLweather

It's that backwoods moonshine Mr Burns. Might have you on the floor crawling.

Antique shop at your local flea market?! While you at it see if they have any telephone booths.

The only bright side is I do see the possibility of Token flakes as the ULL swings through on the 1st. That's for the piedmont of NC. Should be a good NWF event for the mountains.

You have to realize. The angle and trajectory of the H5 level is not a "typical" miller b transfer. Ideally it wouldn't be further south and digging more. It's not and doesn't appear to be doing so. That along with the Parent HP center way up north. Enjoy what snow falls tonight and what little bit of ice you get. This time tomorrow won't have nothing to show for it.

Ehhh. This setup is not like a typical Miller B fashion. Imo the h5 ULL & energy kind of at a high latitude. Considering too the parent High(high latitude) and it's ridge axis entending south. Not much of a meso high into PA,MD,VA. If you have noticed too the parent high doesn't really move. That indicates blocking up stream. But considering all in all I'd said that's a reasonable call.

Hey how much did y'all get in Person county with the last storm?

That run looks funny to me. 3-4"+ of rain along the NC/VA border. With a inch + of ice. Looking at Nam & Wrf. The CAD might be colder and deeper than what the models are picking up atm. One thing I am noticing between the two. Is the parent HP is well into Canada. But there is a strong ridge axis extending well south. So there is a possibility of the models not picking up on a secondary HP some where around PA,MD,Va. 6z Nam did have a secondary in VA.

Not trying to sound like Debbie downer. But looking at wrf and nam front end thump will probably not existent. Before WAA takes over. Only bright side Nam develops secondary HP in VA as main batch of precip moves in.

Moderate band of showers pushing through, occasional flash or two of lightning. Probably be over with in a hour. Wind shift should occur roughly around midnight. Temps falling into low mid 50s by daybreak. Struggling to hit 62-63 tomorrow.

I've been reading through the thread tonight after I got off work. This caught my eye after the reading your comment... The icon showing a HP over the mountains. Indicates 4 things. 1. someone is going to get screwed.(lee side shadow) 2. cad will be stronger 3. That's a clear indication of a leeside trough. 4. Models still haven't a clue. Placement of SLP and h850 lp. It's clear the cold coming in. It's clear that there should be some sort of CAD. It's clear that it wouldn't take much. It's a good probably that surface temps up to 900-925mb will border line I85/I-40 north. This is for Thursday into Friday.

It's the gfs. It's got issues.

6zgfs, icon, nam... Still shows snow for northern NC. Still not out of realm of possibility that Thursday system over performs.

Didn't really realize it was going to rain today. Cool clamy day. Light rain. Moist and fog most of the day.

One thing I don't like about other sources they don't show the humidity levels... Ex tropical tidbits. That back side there will be a very sharp cutoff along the VA border towards the mountains... Once the h7 low passes. Should fill in NE NC.

I wouldn't get too excited. Not yet. Need some changes. Very rarely a Miller A b produces, especially this far south.

Considering. I'm not too optimistic of the 18z. It's five o'clock sum where.

Quiet a bit of frost Tuesday morning. Last few days have been a tell of two seasons. Chilly in the morning warm in the afternoon.

Rain ratio.

So... Backwards ehh?

Man!!! It's been years I've seen a southern California ULL at that latitude and longitude. Looking at the WV tropics are sounding off tonight. That's a shit ton of southern stream energy that will be ejected over the next few days.

Not surprised. It will snow in roxboro before any other location. Va/NC line. Danville to GSO east

Gfs been suffering from convective feedback issues. Which honestly most of the globals have been as well. Wouldn't really put much faith past 84 hours. Honestly the Canadian looks fishy at 0z

North GA, TN, NC, Va mountains look promising for some snow today. That system over the SE isn't decaying all that fast. Holding on rather good atm.

Pretty bad when Dallas cashes in and as the system heads east drys up in the process.

Hm