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FLweather

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  1. FLweather
    If it runs parallel and offshore along Cuba the mountains can enhance the lift and help strengthen the storm. But after watching last night... Not really shocked it became a hurricane today. Will be interesting to see what nocturnal intensification happens tonight. As the upper levels cool off from the solar radiation today.
  2. FLweather
    Both the GFS and HWRF came a little further west with the 0z runs. Big bend of FL north of Tampa and Clearwater. GFS the strongest of the 2. 968mb prior to landfall. HMON targeting SW FL. Canadian the outlier and the weakest never makes landfall in FL. But skirts east of Miami as a marginal TD/TS. Imo FL still very much in the possibility of having landfall some where. A Irma style track very possible.... SW FL landfall right up the middle of the state.
  3. FLweather
    Elsa definitely showing her colors tonight. LLC and mid and upper levels stacking. Will be a hurricane sometime early in the morning tomorrow mid day.
  4. FLweather
    Irma wasn't fake. That's for sure.
  5. FLweather
    Exactly been a long time since 2004.
  6. FLweather
    You can already see that the strong flow aloft is not going be much of an issue. And the lower levels will start slowing down as the ridge breaks down ahead of the incoming troughs. Minimal shear aloft plus the surface ridge axis splits and creates a "fork in the road" This storm will start slowing down. Before it curves. Eastern GOM or EC of FL.
  7. FLweather
    You ready for the 4th and a hurricane party? We might have a Matthew and Irma track going on.
  8. FLweather
    WV really starting to show Elsa wrapping up. Kinda in a way... I do see a GFS solution. Tightly wound compact system. Needless to say Euro is the outlier. The organization tonight. I highly doubt that this goes to nada.
  9. FLweather
    Water vapor confirms dry air being shut off at the mid and upper. Also confirms that the system is trying to become stacked and symmetrical.
  10. FLweather
    I've been watching that. The organization this evening has improved greatly over the last few hours. I think that judging by the satellite. Mid and UL becoming stacked with the LLC. But by 5am advisory looking at a stout TS/min hurricane.
  11. FLweather
    Elsa definitely under going a strengthening phase atm. Convection becoming more centered and symmetrical.
  12. FLweather
    Going to be interesting tonight. Definitely could see some strengthening tonight. The convection is trying to pull around the center and water vapor shows further development possible over night. Plus the dry air to the NW is being cut off.
  13. FLweather
    Hurricane Party right after the 4th of July.... Sounds about right. HWRF 990mb approaching sw FL. That would be a low end cat 1.
  14. FLweather
    Tropical storm Elsa as of lastest advisory. 40mph Max sustained
  15. FLweather
    Very healthy storm via satellite. Wouldn't be surprised this gets a name today, especially if recon goes out. Looking at the models track wise... Very similar to Irma. Strength wise they're all over the place. Euro being the outlier.
  16. FLweather
    Another thing to watch is the afternoon convection across FL and GOM states. There has been persistent trough axis across FL and GOM last week or so. So the ridging can only push this but so far west, before the easterly flow gives up. The stronger and faster this develops can make a huge difference too. It could slide up the EC of FL or somewhere over the eastern Gulf/West. I have a feeling 2020's younger brother wants to play this year too.
  17. FLweather
    This has definitely been the oddest system in quite some time. Not very often you see a direct landfall and westward trajectory into that area. Usually it's a skirt and skoot along that area of coast line.
  18. FLweather
    I'm shocked But that's a TS tonight on satellite. With out question. Broad circulation but obviously a small compact LLC. Near the flare up.
  19. FLweather
    Not the area of development. Cant really believe the NHC would give that a 10 percent. Along an elongated trough axis extending south into the GOM stretching down to the Yucatan. Central GOM is to watch.
  20. FLweather
    Tonight's convection associated with the weak front combined with East Coast and West Coast Seabreeze collisions. Have spun up a mid-level and surface LP off of Clearwater, St Pete.
  21. FLweather
    Good eye on the broad scale of things. But not really the location to be watching. Looking at satellite and radar. I think a broad large scale trough axis trying to setup off the Carolina,GA Coast across Florida into the GOM. So just judging by the models and possible quick spin up possibility maybe central and northern GOM stretching down to the Yucatan.
  22. FLweather
    The 0z GFS back at it with a developing TC entering the GOM roughly 200-220 hours out. Something to watch in the BOC.
  23. FLweather
    Lol. But interesting enough the Canadian has some kind of entity also the last 2 runs. Something to watch for again coming out of the BOC? Just looking at the the pattern over the last week +/- . We might be locked into the next 2-3 weeks.
  24. FLweather
    I highly doubt that this will get named between now and 11pm. You can clearly see how separated the surface is from the upper levels. The mid level vortex just made landfall 1.5 hours ago. Just slightly after 4pm ET. SE of N.O. Current location is SW of N.O. Now since the Mid level is over land all cards are off the table.
  25. FLweather
    This storm has alot to go model wise. Definitely going to be a lopsided TD/TS. Looking at the models. They are off to tonight's presentation on satellite. Any reformation will likely be a good jump to the east. Likely south southeast of Mobile and Pensacola. Judging by satellite only a very deep healthy anti cyclonic ATM centered south and east. Outer edges of the trough showing up over Texas.
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