FLweather

SLP well of the Atlantic Coast. Disconnected from the ULL.

SLP well of the Atlantic Coast. Disconnected from the ULL.

Downslope starting to kick in. Back edge approaching GSO and CLT.

Yeah

We'll see. But yeah I think another pattern change in store. Tonight's ULL laying the ground work for it. If that's really the gfs. Then yeah more than likely. Its going to get cold.

TWC app on my phone, radar out of Huntsville and south appear to have some blue showing up. That's definitely bright banding and a very impressive band. It would not be out of the realm of possibility people under that band in AL atm getting slush.

That wilkesboro dude.

The usual lines. 85 and 40 east. North of there should be good.

One thing about this setup It will run SE to NW. NW to SE flow. The angle. Should provide a SE to NW flow. East side upslope hella dry slot followed by cold.

Frosty again this morning up around Rock Springs and rural parts of Lake County. Kind of weird not to have frost advisories. Can tell though the air is a bit dryer, not as much frost overall.

Where ever that band sets up from the ULL. The moisture and cold will be deep. Deep instability above, in and below the DGZ. It's either going to rain or snow hard. BL temps will not be a problem. Sort of reminds me of that one ULL that came through years ago. It was raining in Timberlake but roughly 10 miles Nw towards Hyco Lake near my house... we ended up with roughly 7" of powder.

I've been working near Mt Dora, FL. But this morning I seen frost out in rural Lake County. Was a solid 10 degree difference. 40-30ish. There was frosted roof tops

That's the best.

Right. Especially since this is a Miller AB hybrid. Places such as AL, Ga, essentially anything up stream is striking out.

That's true. But at h5 of gfs lost alot of steam. Lot less organization over all h5 generally. Even if the Rgem looks raggedy. 24-36 hours ago gfs soundings where moist and cold all the way up to h3-h4 with questionable bl temps. A southern stronger track would be more favorable

18z GFS is a paste job. Looking at soundings. Most of NC pushing towards SC. Deep moisture up to 350-400 mb.

Even at a low bias snow ratio 7:1 8:1 ratio that's a solid snow fall.

Supposed to get down to 44 tonight. I've been noticing that the cold has been under done by 2-3 degrees. Probably a safe bet to place...40 degrees. It was pretty cool this morning. 42-43. Honestly since I moved back to my home area in 2014. I don't think I ve seen as much brown and burnt bahia grass. That along will fall colors. Not much sweet gum trees or maples but just about every one is was yellow to brown. Alot of wild grape vines in the trees are yellow. In fact alot of Elephant ears are showing stress.

Meh... looking at the nam, gfs, cmc. I wouldn't say nam is too far south. Its surface reflection maybe. It's highly strung out and disorganized. But looking at the h5 level relatively same latitude as gfs. Unlike Canadian which takes it through TN instead of Northern AL, GA. I think the SW over MT, WY along with the ridging over PNW, SW Canada may be an issue. I guess we will see how it goes. Just too much moving pieces to get a solid answer.

Can't ask for a better setup that. Once the secondary gets going. Precip will be pulled NW

This mornings nam run. Nicely organized cut off ULL with a surface LP near Pensacola FL. Surface reflection has a primary near Pensacola with a secondary right off Jacksonville. Very nice setup. Edit: 850lp. Near Pensacola. Secondary off of Jacksonville. Baroclinic zone right at FL/GA line.

What I was mentioning about nam earlier

What is that from? Looks like the nam

A ULL will almost deliver. Just depends where you are. As long as the mid level and surface level not spaced out.

That's the thing about it. Most of the soundings indicate atm very little sleet probabilities. Its either rain or snow. Either the surface supports a snow sounding and upper levels too dry or upper levels support cold enough to but boundary layers too warm. Not much in between