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FLweather

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  1. FLweather
    You are right on that. "We shall see" If any chance remotely the the HWRF or HWRFP are correct. Come Friday as a small H2 trough develops across N FL and GA with a slightly displaced ridge over top and south of the SLC. Could be a recipe for excellent upper level divergence.
  2. FLweather
    I agree. Hard to tell if there is anything left of the MLC. But obviously the SLC is southeast of Jacksonville this morning. Looks like a wet day shaping up for FL and southern/central GA. Definitely muggy this morning compared to yesterday. Will be interesting to see how that feeder band progresses this afternoon with day time heating and seabreeze/meso boundaries.
  3. FLweather
    Looking at visible.. at least 2 small vortices left off shore. That will continue to disapate But the mid level vortex is pushing in with the associated dry seabreeze. Aiming directly at Volusia county. Around Titusville. Pretty stout NE to Sw flow on radar in the lower levels. Even with the seabreeze it's hard to get convection to fire up over the FL with a stiff NE flow. On to the next one .
  4. FLweather
    There are times a ULL can transition. But you got to have a very stagnant and blocky UL flow over a warm tropical environment. Just like a derecho... I can remember at least one time a derecho dropping from MW to TX,LA to the GOM. It got left behind from the main UL flow and days, days later turning into a sloppy lop sided TS.
  5. FLweather
    Those yellow x are areas of interest. Meaning areas to watch. Not naming everyone that appears throughout the tropical season. Above is a cold core upper low. Nothing tropical... The main low is up at 30-40k feet. With really no "real" mid level( 15-30k feet) or surface based reflection.
  6. FLweather
    I can confirm. Pretty wicked looking towers yesterday on the way back from Sarasota. Plenty of CG lightening with those storms. Needless to say with traffic and storms what should have been a 2 hour 15 min ride was 3 hours instead.
  7. FLweather
    All along the I4 corridor. Down to south FL... Along and east of US 17&27 to 95 could be getting rough here in the next several hours stretching early morning hours
  8. FLweather
    Earlier I could understand dismissing a possible eye. But what's showing up on radar is definitely an eye.
  9. FLweather
    On interesting note. Tampa is named after old Native American dialect. Tampa is derived from the Pohoy and Tocobaga native indian culture... Meaning sticks of fire.
  10. FLweather
    Elsa not looking too impressive atm. Dry air on the western side has limited convection. Seems as if the LLC and MLC organizing some per radar and WV this morning. Considering the close proximity to land and daytime heating may give her a boost later today.
  11. FLweather
    Ozone. Smells like chlorine. Right after a bad storm.
  12. FLweather
    Elsa strengthening over Cuba. That sounds about right. She must have found a valley to squeeze through.
  13. FLweather
    That convection over the Orlando area crazy atm. Bad lightening and heavy rain and gusty. It's lighting up. But I was sitting on the back porch. Almost looked like 830-9 pm. And I smelled ozone. Been along time since I smelled ozone.
  14. FLweather
    Not wishcasting if you want to call it. But per radar and satellite. Elsa has been going no where fast since 2pm. Pretty solid trough axis setting up across central FL this evening. Not your typical seabreeze and meso scale boundaries. From Tampa to Orlando.
  15. FLweather
    Looking at WV. Clouds are heading due north of the center. I'd say all forward motion to NW is done and over with. Elsa should start turning NE overnight. With the jet to the north helping with the outflow. Decent outflow to the south. I'd expect Elsa to strengthen tonight.
  16. FLweather
    Well that's what I thought too from your last post. The jet stream has done capture this. GFS might be too far west but the possibility of the weaker further east Canadian may be a outlier too.
  17. FLweather
    The last advisory as of 2pm has forward motion at 14mph to the NW. Unless my eyes are playing tricks... Elsa has hardly moved per radar since then. I think the forward motion to NW might be backing to a slow northward movement.
  18. FLweather
    I know what you mean. I'm supposed to go to Lakeland tomorrow. A incoming TS or hurricane and have to deal with the I-4 corridor has a knot in my stomach.
  19. FLweather
    I might sound sick... but I sure am looking forward to Elsa.
  20. FLweather
    More than likely. The I 4 corridor will be in the NE quadrant. Just depends how exactly the center tracks. Hard to say for sure as far as your back yard is concerned. But any where from E/NE to E/SE to S/SW. If the center parallels I4 roughly... Anywhere NW of I4 will have a more northern component compare to south of I4 will have more of a easterly and southern fetch.
  21. FLweather
    Probably be tracking further east now since it connected. Highly doubt it goes much further west of Tampa Bay. South of Tampa into the SW portions of FL. Up the spine of FL NW of Orlando and NW of Daytona. Exiting some where near or south of Palm Coast.
  22. FLweather
    Boss man. The LLC hasn't hit any land.
  23. FLweather
    Watching that clip you probably right. Elsa getting a attitude tonight.
  24. FLweather
    Wouldn't really say that. Her forward speed just out running the mid and upper level and convection associated with it. SST are plenty warm enough for further strengthening. Just needs to slow down and skirt along the DR and Cuba.
  25. FLweather
    GFS shows a weak land fall WC of FL. Canadian east and offshore of FL. Interesting enough it's the NAM and just about out of it's time frame. But NAM is essentially a open wave heading towards the Yucatan. HWRF shows landfall SW FL heading NE around Orlando and Daytona
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