FLweather
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Sure wish the dry season would kick in. Here it is middle of November still raining on a regular basis. Usually from May to October is our wet season. But from post above. Looks like a wet dry season in store.
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Definitely chilly this morning. 54 atm bright sunny morning. Heading up to 71-72
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Snow pack looks reasonable in Canada. Hudson Bay starting to Ice over. Overall snow pack has grown in Russia and etc. But over the last decade snow and ice pack in those places have grown irrelevant in the end as far as influencing the NA and Conus pattern.
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It is 2020 after all you know? All common sense and logic are out the door. Some poor idiot may decide to walk the dog at 130am. It's just a little breezy and a few sprinkles
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You can see them from SC? I live about 70 miles just about due west of Cape Canaveral. For the most part I can see the fireball underneath. Even during the middle of the day if its clear. But twlight hours you can definitely see the fireball. Those early morning hours are the best because the upper levels are cooler. I'm contemplating on riding out to the Cape tomorrow. Been years since I seen one in person. Just to hear it and feel the ground shaking. But fyi the launch window is 730 PM to 12:15am.
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What a beautiful evening for a rocket launch. The upper levels and mid levels are cold and dry. So it was a solid smoke trail from bottom to top. If all goes well tomorrow night. SpaceX will launch its first ever 4 man flight.
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That HP system is transient. Really not a major influence. Need to look at upper levels. H5 H2. A upper level ridge may keep it from heading to far west but eventually NW. SSTs are still pretty warm very possible it does. Very favorable upper levels also.
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So I guess you can say " I survived Eta 2020, we will rebuild "
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Just like clockwork. ETA flaring up. Hot towers blowing up east of the center. SW of Tampa.
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Hmon is definitely more bullish on the amount of moisture and banding compare to Hwrf. But both show it getting rocky late tonight early in the morning for the I4 corridor. Sure hope there is not alot of quick spin up tornadoes tonight. That's my only concern
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Looks fun tonight/tomorrow. A solid TS for Tampa Bay with TS conditions overtaking the I4 corridor. Going to be in the E/NE quadrant. Hmon shows landfall between Crystal River and Spring Hill moving east of Ocala then off FL EC.
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According to recon. 989-992mb. LLC and mid level identifiable. Stout TS pushing Hurricane.
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Eta is not playing tonight. Mid and upper level center definitely heading NE though. Wonder what tomorrow brings? Landfall south of Tampa??!
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It is. But looking at the large scale. Has no choice before a developing deep trough. Looking at IR mid and upper low working in tandem. But LLC slightly SW of the deepest convection.
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Gfs has come east. More along the lines of Nam,Hwrf. Just north of Tampa Bay. If it can pick up its pace and stay ahead of the developing trough it may stay relatively intact.
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Nam and Wrf kind of resembles the Hwrf I should say earlier model runs. Hwrf has definitely came back east towards the WC of FL. A few more scoots to the east would put the I4 corridor back under the threat of TS conditions Thursday into Friday.
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The way 2020 is going. We will probably be dealing with a TC or STC around Christmas time.
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Starting to see a flare up over the keys on IR and WV. The northern eyewall.
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The true eye per radar shows a solid landfall between Layton, Conch Key, Marathon and Islamorada to Key Largo.
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Looking at radar the LLC still moving in a NW direction. But looking at IR. Sadly you can make out the MLC and it appears to be due west. Its stacked for now.
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Wonder how much longer the LLC will hang on before opening and broadening? Looking at IR, the Northwest shield is growing.
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Same thoughts here. But its 2020 and probably also on Friday the 13th.
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Could get a little dicey around here Thursday into Friday. That's from Tampa following the I4 corridor into Orlando. According to the Hwrf. Edit. Still breezy. But winds have dropped a little since the sun went down.
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I would not be surprised if the 5pm advisory ETA is labeled as PTC. That dry air did a number.
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True last few frames of IR are telling. As far as Hwrf is concerned.... Has there ever really been a case like this? Or is this some 2020 weird shyt. Globals decay this storm for the most part. But hwrf has it at a solid cat2. Idk if I ever remember a storm going from tropical to subtropical back to tropical.
