NJHurricane

From an accumulating snow perspective I agree. Think wind potential is serious and depending on the details of our likely coastal plain track can’t rule out thunder or locally heavy rain though….but if snow is someone’s entire game at and around PHL I’d definitely hit the expectations reset button once the 12z suite is in.

Son….trolling doesn’t pay much. Earn literally dozens of $$$ using this one simple trick. Real meteorologists will h8te u!!!

Obvious troll is obvious

I’ve reported your troll ass….. I’ve been here much longer than you. You’re beyond worthless.

Literally every reputable forecast source emphasized the fringey uncertainty of even a barely plowable snow. I’d have loved some accumulation but nobody should be angrily surprised.

First flakes in National Park, far NW Gloucester county NJ started at 4:47am

Solid discussion from Mt Holly…below is the majority of the near term portion. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off The main change to the forecast overnight was an increase in QPF, and by association, snowfall, for areas previously within and that were just north of the previous Winter Storm Warning. The QPF increase is almost unanimously supported by the last two cycles of global and hi res guidance, and translates to an increase in snow totals. The most difficult portion of the forecast remains the northward extent of precipitation shield. Even many of the recent model runs which increased QPF across the south generally didn`t move the precipitation shield north much. The latest blend does bring amounts up somewhat in the I-95 corridor. However, there is likely to be an exceptionally sharp northern cutoff to accumulating snow, probably even sharper than the latest forecast, which as it is has a much sharper than normal gradient. Even across, for example, Philadelphia County, it would not be surprising to see a significant difference in totals. And for northern portions of the area, it will simply be a cloudy and cold day with perhaps some flurries. Confidence in snowfall is much greater for southern areas. It is clear now that a swath of heavy precipitation will overspread the region. Extreme frontogenetic forcing is allowing precipitation to expand in coverage and intensity to our southwest, and this will only continue today. While precipitation is beginning as rain in some places, temperatures are continuing to cool behind yesterday`s front, and a flip to snow will occur. One possible exception is far southeast Delaware, where rain or mix could hold on for longer. Amounts were reduced a bit there. Otherwise, a large stripe of 8 to 12 inches of snow is now forecast, and can`t rule out some localized amounts a little over 12 inches. Snowfall to our southwest has generally been over-performing, and this trend could continue into our area. Snowfall rates could easily exceed 1 inch per hour at times this morning, perhaps 2 inches per hour. While snow ratios overall will be less than 10:1, these rates will quickly overwhelm the warm ground conditions left by recent near record warmth. These snowfall rates could persist for several hours this morning and early afternoon. Banding features are certainly possible within the heavy snow shield, leading to some local variations. Eventually, precipitation will end from west to east late this afternoon and this evening as the area of low pressure moves out to sea.

FWIW…NWS upgrade of Salem/Gloucester/ Camden counties in NJ about an hour before the usual zone forecast update. Guessing eastern parts of these counties look more solid to hit the 4 inch low end warning threshold

Don’t they cap/secure them prior to the storm…not the rig so much as the well itself.

Pelican cases ftw

Staying at the Hard Rock in AC and watching these tornado warnings creeping up the Delmarva. Should be an interesting couple of hours, had the sideways wind driven rains with sheets of water against our 19th floor windows an hour ago. Starting to crank again now. I know they’ve seen much worse here from hurricane passbys and Nor’easters but taking it all in with enthusiasm as personal business justhappened to bring us down here just in time for Elsa.

Eyeball probably passing 3 here, and still hanging on to snow...National Park NJ across from PHL. Noticing some very light returns filling in a bit west of me too, wondering if we can add a little back end pixie dust into the morning.

Very light snow commenced at 11:22pm in National Park NJ, across from PHL.

See a lot of people referencing 1994 on the ice. Normally I chuckle when I see 1994 mentions, the past few days though...can’t say I’m laughing.

Persistent sleet here in National Park NJ...I suspect same at PHL. Good luck to all who flipped back to snow, hope you reach your projections.

Good to hear. Location reminders super appreciated for those of us on old mobile devices ty

We will know by late morning if it’s huffing glue. Would not be the first time that the once undisputed King of the medium range laid an egg while a long duration event. Wish I was rested enough to recall specific examples.

National Park NJ, 1 mile from PHL Light sleet/zr mix started about 15 minutes ago as I shoveled.

Moderate snow began as moderate signature on radar was moving past...no pingers so far National Park NJ across from PHL

Another batch of light snow here in National Park NJ at 12:45pm

Solid run....PHL itself has a chance at a noteworthy accumulation.

Welp... There is literally 50 inches on some of these runs. A few weeks ago we laughed at 40 inches and whilst the placement was wrong...up by Binghamton saw that. The intense moisture feed off the Atlantic will likely help someone achieve some ridiculous totals. Maybe not 50...but someone could double up that 16. I think this smells Hecsish, but of course mileage may vary at any one location.

#LockItIn