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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Stratton is right in the bullseye in the middle of those mountains and has the highest elevation. They tend to under measure though. Regardless this storm is going to make the winter. 18” with decent ratios (not fluff) will build a nice base to open things up.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Moderate snow with about an inch so far SVT
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Light snow has started here west Townsend SVT 1000’ expecting 18” here.
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    How many times have we seen storms lost in the mid range only to be found again? If anything the amount of run to run change shows just about anything is possible. I would wait a bit before throwing up the victory flag for no snow. It would be impressive bad luck to make it to the end of this month with cold around and no snow
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    DC is way west of NYC, while it’s rare there are instances in this type of setup where they thump and nyc and Boston go right to rain. We are just so much closer to the ocean then DC. East wind is not your friend
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Right along the coast it could be -10 right now and it wouldn’t matter. Water temps are in the mid to upper 40s. The wind direction is all wrong for CAD. Even Boston goes right to rain
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Nothing showing on radar can anyone else confirm? I’m in Vermont and skipped out on snow removal based on it not snowing in the city
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Exactly. And first and foremost Walt is an incredible resource for the board after having lost many great posters over the years. KFOK 2 degrees and it will be raining in a few hours
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If it turns out it was a high S02 event, absolutely. Even into next winter. Peak cooling usually last about a year after the event. It’s just unfortunate Anthony thought we would see instant cooling.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Just in time for spring…. it takes several months for the cooling to occur.
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    All they care about is snow. Wind and coastal flooding events generally do not receive much coverage until after the fact.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Damaging winds and major coastal flooding is hardly a non event. Plus with the ground frozen rock solid any heavy rain will quickly run of leading to potential flooding. I’m heading to Vermont anyway
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I still think something similar to 3/17 is possible maybe displaced 50 miles west. That would at least give the city some front end snow. Long Island and the jersey shore are toast in that scenario.
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I hate to say this but when we have seen major storms like this in the past modeling tends to lock on early. I still think this ends up hugging the coast more then being inland though. That inland track is super rare. Totally different setup, but I like a muted version of March 93
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed. I mean basic understanding of climatology shows how rare a track like the gfs is. I mean we are talking Sandy rare. Storms like to hug the coast or go west of the mountains. If we start seeing some cutter tracks then it’s time to worry about rain in Vermont. Otherwise keep an open mind
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    KFOK West Hampton just had one of its incredible temp rise events. 8 to 28 in less then an hour.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    80% coastal hugger 10% classic benchmark blizzard 4% ots 1% inland inland is extremely rare, storms either cut west of the mountains or follow the coast
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Show me how many times a track like that has occurred… I’ll wait…. storms either hug the coast or go just west of the mountains. A coastal hugger ala 3/17 is the most likely outcome at this time
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Absolutely, I specifically remember the feb 94 storms going to the north shore for swim practice and being amazed at the difference in snow. That and the school closings
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Agreed. This is a ski area dream storm. At least as modeled currently. We need to thread the needle perfectly for the coast to score. Like Jm said 3/17
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Super amped inland runner is def possible without NAO help. This is a pretty 80s pattern. People forget that’s why the coast struggled with snow despite more cold air around.
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I must have been in the heart of the squall in Jericho. Vis was less the 1/8 for a bit and got a half inch. Went into work for snow removal on the uws (just in case) and only a dusting
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    March 18 was the last time we had a true nor’easter. There is nothing like heavy snow and coastal flooding. March 93 while technically an inland runner was fascinating watching 12” slush around in the streets
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Pretty similar on the uws. 6” looks like a lock, and with that a warning criteria storm
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Classic mid winter snow event ongoing. Near perfect flakes with minimal wind on uws. Snow globe stuff, now to keep it around for the Arctic blast next week. Maybe even start a pack!
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