SnowGoose69

Its interesting when you look at the NYC record lows how after 5/12 there's a pretty good uptick with almost all of them jumping 5-6-7 degrees from the first 10-12 days of the month.

The GFS/Euro wanted it to dig more 2-3 days ago taking the cold down into the TN Valley/SE region. That really is not realistic in May as most of those areas see their final FROPAs til September around this time. I think it'll be centered mostly DCA and north.

I believe though that much like cold in late October/early November our weather now does not necessarily correlate to summer and may even be a reverse indicator. Look at 2005 for example. There are only a few years I remember where miserable springs carried the entire way through. 2003 was one example

NYC would have a legit shot at their all time record for May if that played out. Only way it can be done is a deepening system with strong CAA and NW flow. They'll never sniff 32 this time of year without a strong gradient all night

On the Euro NYC would likely comes close to their record lows on 5/9 and 5/10 of 35 and 36.. The all timer is not out of reach here if we get the right setup. Its too far out to determine but if we did get a coastal and had enough of a gradient with strong CAA 32 is not out of the question given the -AO/NAO

If the 240 hour 12Z Op Euro verified there would be record lows and max mins smashed everywhere from Maine to Alabama and Georgia

The good news is it'll change. Much like winter it seems if you're really cold in April/May you rarely have a cool summer. The only cases I know of where this really held the whole way through were 83 and 96 and I want to say 96 actually was fairly mild from 5/1-6/15 but it flipped right after that.

Outside of mid August into September It only happens in non classic setups where you aren’t relying on heating instability ahead of a front.

You don’t get many outbreaks in KS/OK/TX where you see like 50 plus tornadoes. It’s more common to see violent tornadoes though vs outbreaks with high numbers. Those are more frequent to the east as those maps show as well as further north in the Plains

The western ridge/East trof pattern is a disaster for the Plains severe weather season. There are some signs the pattern may shift 5/5-5/10 but by that point many areas of TX/OK are nearing the slowing point of their season which ends around 6/1 usually

33 is actually the record for NYC that morning. would have expected it to be lower

November 2002 crossed my mind as a mostly night event if I’m placing it correctly but I think that was evening and late evening and of course night is longer in November

I believe the ATL tornado by the time the warning was issued it was on the ground already and might have even lifted. The power outages suggest it was on ground 225-232 or so and warning came 233-234. Those are very difficult to warn on though. Those quick spin ups often are on ground by time warning comes

Its also about 45 minutes too slow. I think this line may be in ATL by 0430-0500Z. The 3km NAM is laughably slow. The HRRR is closest but even its too far west now with activity in NRN AL

That was more or less a clear air bust wasn’t it? My memory is there was a massive burst of AM convection that killed instability but even though it totally cleared out for hours after nothing ever happened

There’s numerous ways this could enhance the COVID issue. It could force the stores to be obliterated again if everyone’s food spoils, it could force people to move into friends or family’s homes if they lose power, and power crews could accelerate the virus spread by working together

Even the last 2 weeks when we’ve had these trofs and cold pushes the source region of the air hasn’t been great so despite it looking cold if you just glanced at the upper air pattern or thicknesses when you looked at the 850s it wasn’t really a very cold air mass

It was a Dec 1992 repeat more or less. The gradient was just that strong. I’m not sure we effectively mixed down max winds from aloft in that scenario given time of year and direction of wind. This event like that one the strongest winds should be near the coast but the high gusts will probably be more sporadic depending how effectively they mix down. This event is more similar to an 11/11/95 or 10/14/03. Both of those setups were different in regards to proximity of the surface lows/upper trof but they both had crazy 850 S’ly winds with areas gusting 50-70. The 2003 event was somewhat short duration though. This will be a good 6-12 hours

There has been so many events where wildfire smoke was involved it’s hard to really come to any conclusion. The May 3 1999 outbreak in Oklahoma had widespread smoke from Mexico fires

The majority of the states/areas of those states where you’d chase this early in the season don’t really have severe enough outbreaks that anyone would really care. It’s probably not smart though to travel in groups of 7 in vans

The overnight threat I think may be getting missed somewhat. For AL in particular but I think even GA might see a violent squall line overnight. I don’t see much argument for this weakening as it crosses through. Especially since it appears GA could break out into sun for awhile Sunday afternoon which could destabilize things further

I find it funny that even in late March the models could not hold onto a colder change being shown. Ensembles were pretty solidly in agreement just 4-5 days back on this but they've slowly lost it or just showed it being transient. Even 97-98/01-02 had colder spring flips for a period but we could not manage that in 11-12 or this year it seems

I'm sure nobody cares but the setup Monday per the 12Z NAM is classic if you want decent snow here from this sort of event. The Euro not as much but the NAM has the classic high center near NB/Maine and the system coming up almost straight from the south.

Yeah with a La Nina. It won't be as bad as this winter but I don't feel next winter is gonna be any sort of 95-95 or 02-03

Funny thing is if you look at the anomalies in Dec 2010 the Pac and Atlantic were not that different from Dec 2012 but the blocking in 2010 was more west based which likely made the difference